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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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14 minutes ago, Scraff said:

15” of snow to a rainy fropa in just 6 hours. Man I love the GooFuS! :arrowhead:

Obviously surface weather will have huge run to run variability at 200hr. What do you expect? The mid-range models have had an excellent season overall. For the most part there have been very few major head fakes to get our hopes up inside of 5 days. Models have been pretty much locked in after settling onto an outcome in the 5-7 day range. Unfortunately they have correctly locked in on rain storms. Meteorological modeling has improved tremendously over the past 3 decades... and it continues to improve further.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Obviously surface weather will have huge run to run variability at 200hr. What do you expect? The mid-range models have had an excellent season overall. For the most part there have been very few major head fakes to get our hopes up inside of 5 days. Models have been pretty much locked in after settling onto an outcome in the 5-7 day range. Unfortunately they have correctly locked in on rain storms. Meteorological modeling has improved tremendously over the past 3 decades... and it continues to improve further.

You are joking right? Models can’t even get stuff right 72hrs out anymore. We seen huge jumps even inside 3 days. 

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3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

You are joking right? Models can’t even get stuff right 72hrs out anymore. We seen huge jumps even inside 3 days. 

Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 

3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons.

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3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 

3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons.

 

It does seem that this winter we've seen less volatility inside Day 6...there has tended to often be one model which holds out but overall the models have been locking onto generalized storm track ideas at that range and not changing much.

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14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh the pattern wants to change...the cold is now closer than it's been all winter. So it wants to change...but will the SER let it? Or I guess the bigger question is can the cold overpower the defending champion SER? Match starts this week...ding ding!

Hope it’s not like last year when Texas froze and we barley saw any cold air from that arctic outbreak. 

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Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3rd-4th with an actual cold airmass in place.

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2 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Hope it’s not like last year when Texas froze and we barley saw any cold air from that arctic outbreak. 

You guys can have that! Our water lines froze solid! We got 7 inches of wind-driven pow in 11 degree conditions. Northerly winds gusted to 40 mph. The miniature donkeys nearly froze to death.

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30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3-4th with an actual cold airmass in place.

You guys are about to get snow and very frigid weather.

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5 hours ago, eduggs said:

Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 

3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons.

clown maps is what we do. let us do it please. thanks. 

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