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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For now that appears to be a clipper swinging by on the 28th. 

I’m about to pull the trigger on a trip to Deep Creek next weekend. Looks like some upslope there late week. 

I am considering that too.

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Chuck already showed it above but just to emphasize, do not look at the 18Z GFS if you value your sanity.  Just don't.  It goes all in on the "dig a trough to Baja" idea.  540 line over the northern Sea of California.  Let us never speak of it again. 

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4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

For now that appears to be a clipper swinging by on the 28th. 

I’m about to pull the trigger on a trip to Deep Creek next weekend. Looks like some upslope there late week. 

Headed up to Snowshoe on Wednesday through Saturday. Will there be any decent upslope/local accumulation while I'm there?

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Much better Op run, figured 18z gfs Op was a blip considering ensembles.

Cold about to push into our region

348f55e82f978c9c76d627901715c398.jpg


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Is it true that 18z and 6z uses less data than 12z and 0z? Because those runs always seem to be most whacky with the craziest swings in output.


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00z GFS has the Cape storm


.

The GFS tracks 4+ storms up the coast between 1/31 and the end of the run. All forming somewhere near VA and the Carolinas. Very active pattern coming up. Now we need that pesky cold air to have a legit press and be stubborn enough able to push back against these storms. Otherwise they all end up like today. IE: Taking nice offshore tracks with cold rain.
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