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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

So it looks like delayed, not denied on this tanking of the EPO, which begins close to the 25th, but peaks near the 27th-28th (so entering the short range). 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_norm_anom-4864000.thumb.png.f912890badcb65f14cfad2ca88e7d340.png

Impressive poleward ridging too. In fact, the Euro is so extensive with this ridging that it ends up intruding the AO domain near the end of the run, which is in clown range but has some decent ensemble support. Now I guess the question would be whether this EPO tank does what the previous two did not, which is produce snow potential in our area. Both the November 13th-20th and December 20th-27th periods saw average temperatures ~9-14F below average for all of the Mid Atlantic region, but the few events that took place during those stretches put us into the warmer sector of those systems. Hopeful that prime climo and that stout PV lobe can help get us on the board. I also recall reading that extreme November -EPO events were correlated with high latitude blocking returning later in the winter, so maybe we will see a return of that some time in mid-late February. 

We have a favorable pac already. Problem is cold takes a while lately to build. So we wait. But also an epo alone won’t do it. We need some other mechanism. Either AO or -NAO help or a TPV displacement that can serve as a proxy. We got the tPV help in 2015 for example.  We got some AO help in 2014. I highly doubt, at least until later Feb, we get NAO help. But we might get a tpv displacement.  The holy grail save would be if we get a tpv displacement early Feb then roll into a -NAO after it lifts and with a cold regime established. That’s the way we could pull a rabbit from a hat here. 

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Finally a model run that times a shortwave right after a TPV dive. GFS and euro still differ, but GFS has been good lately at picking up the large scale features. Models really differ around day 7, few camps. 12z gfs had a mild version of this which impacted Ne, so we’ll see if we can build on this on 00z for once.


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15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya I don’t think we will see -23 air temp here but hey who knows lol

AC81DAB4-8470-4199-BF16-1682E413D0FF.png

Funny thing is I think the latest GFS update was, in part, to fix issues with surface temps.

9 minutes ago, windycutter said:

I think that possibly Joe B was hinting around to this type of cold a day or so ago. I believe that it was the Euro, but showing 850 temps in the sub zero range.

Is there ever a time in winter when JB is NOT hinting at arctic cold? 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Funny thing is I think the latest GFS update was, in part, to fix issues with surface temps.

Is there ever a time in winter when JB is NOT hinting at arctic cold? 

If you get snow pack and 498 thickness I could see that happening.  

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

What's interesting is that the thicknesses aren't all that impressive, but the lower-level cold push is killer. Really nice to see a system arrive as cold air is pressing...and that is some serious fresh cold.

That cold push with that precip would be explosive to watch…snow becoming steady after midnight heavy at times temps falling to upper teens

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I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame.

Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs.

Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here.

Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models.

4d523d5c109aa62ad0b59b701987a78b.jpg


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