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Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?


mahk_webstah
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40 minutes ago, 512high said:

Brian,

With the storm tonight/Friday for my area clue on density type?

Gonna be very wet and sloppy tonight, maybe even some sleet in there. Theyll be a break with drizzle late night/early morning. The midday stuff tomorrow will be a little drier. 

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6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Expecting mostly rain today here in the Berks, and rather heavy rain. This is fun.

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

Yeah, I just checked the radar, which actually looks decent for a period of snow early today. The second round though looks like rain. Probably a couple inches from the IVT tomorrow.

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'now cast' appearance on the entry into this thing ... the snow appears a little more aggressive on various p-type outfittted rad presentations compared to modeling.

just sayn'

not sure if an obs and amt thread is worth it for this - but ...

Looking around  ...  WPC's current sfc synopsis shows at 16:30 there's a weak cold front slicing through the region.  It's hard to detect this in sfc ob/wind profiles, and the DPs are also not very representative, but it is what it is. This situation being very sensy ...it 'might' matter?    Right now up and down rt Poop we are generally 37/28 ...

Rad with ptype suggests very quickly going from nothing to some sort of light to moderate fall rates, whether IP contaminated snow column or snow.  But that's evidence along a line roughly SYR-HFD

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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

Hrrr has been trending a little better with that initial pulse. 16z run is trying to flip the pike region for a bit. 

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5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Hrrr has been trending a little better with that initial pulse. 16z run is trying to flip the pike region for a bit. 

For some reason, I'm not feeling good about this event, ASH@ 39......... going for a total now of 2-3", yesterday I was thinking 5" total by Friday pm, just seems warmer of a storm?

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO.   Vascillates between big numbers and dustings

I like to use it for trends, but overall agree it can jump wildly. We use it alot for aviaiton purpose for cig/vis/TS. 

 

This is getting inside 4-5hr now though so hopefully it has a clue. 

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46 minutes ago, 512high said:

For some reason, I'm not feeling good about this event, ASH@ 39......... going for a total now of 2-3", yesterday I was thinking 5" total by Friday pm, just seems warmer of a storm?

Real tough call from ash to my area. Maybe something like 2-4" tonight and hope for another 1-2" midday tomorrow. Gradient may be very tight tonight. I'd lean lower end and be happy if it breaks the other way. 

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