Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I basically need between 55-60” from here on out to reach average. Not happening without some big dogs. 

Which is why I think the next week is absolutely critical for SNE (read: CT). It’s not ideal, but we have to get on the board meaningfully with three chances coming up.

I do not assume at all that the parade of storms will continue long enough into the pattern shift in late January/early Feb to get us in striking range of climo before we revert to the base state of the season. I’m really with Jerry on that.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wouldn’t myself.  But December and much of January has been exceedingly boring. If I get 50” between now and April that would bring me to average and maybe some good storms would be in there

What if one 50” storm that melts a week later?

[wx2fish]

Hrrr is super juiced up. Hard to buy that kind of qpf in these, but well see. Pushing 1.25" in SNH in like 8 hours

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Hrrr is super juiced up. Hard to buy that kind of qpf in these, but well see. Pushing 1.25" in SNH in like 8 hours

We sell 

let’s not follow the formula of how to be Set up to be disappointed in a 6” snower , when we haven’t had a real snow storm so far . I know you were just mentioning that model , that’s all 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Which is why I think the next week is absolutely critical for SNE (read: CT). It’s not ideal, but we have to get on the board meaningfully with three chances coming up.

I do not assume at all that the parade of storms will continue long enough into the pattern shift in late January/early Feb to get us in striking range of climo before we revert to the base state of the season. I’m really with Jerry on that.

 at some point the parade of storms slows down for us , so we can’t keep swinging and missing and thinking Mother Nature is gonna keep lobbing in meatballs for us to crush later from some gradient fairy 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What if one 50” storm that melts a week later?

That would be a chefs kiss.  
 

Sorta a 3/31/97 on roids. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 at some point the parade of storms slows down for us , so we can’t keep swinging and missing and thinking Mother Nature is gonna keep lobbing in meatballs for us to crush later from some gradient fairy 

Absolutely. 

Doesn’t mean we can’t get a 435ft two run bomb in Feb or March, but we have to get runs when the pitcher that has been throwing a one hitter starts to crack a bit. 

Bullpen is warming up soon. 

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We sell 

let’s not follow the formula of how to be Set up to be disappointed in a 6” snower , when we haven’t had a real snow storm so far . I know you were just mentioning that model , that’s all 

Yeah agree. I think for more than just more localized amounts over 6" the Friday stuff will need to come in robust. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm thinking 4-6” is a safe bet in Greenfield. Should be the biggest so far this season.  
Not really concerned with elevation in these  set ups.  Lat/Long more important.  

[mahk_webstah]

14 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Hrrr is super juiced up. Hard to buy that kind of qpf in these, but well see. Pushing 1.25" in SNH in like 8 hours

The swfe always try to do this to us.  This is a 6-10er, and 10 would be a high achievment.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The swfe always try to do this to us.  This is a 6-10er, and 10 would be a high achievment.

10” is the general max in these.   You might get close to that but I’m thinking 8 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

10” is the general max in these.   You might get close to that but I’m thinking 8 

8 is enough for me.

[dryslot]

SWFE, Ramp up qpf inside 24 hrs, Check, Come north inside 24 hrs, Check.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

SWFE, Ramp up qpf inside 24 hrs, Check, Come north inside 24 hrs, Check.

Yep. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SWFE, Ramp up qpf inside 24 hrs, Check, Come north inside 24 hrs, Check.

Yeah, you’ve been on this for days. 4-8 6-10 with possibly lingering light snow adding an inch or two Friday 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sure if anyone had posted the latest BOX snow map 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, you’ve been on this for days. 4-8 6-10 with possibly lingering light snow adding an inch or two Friday 

I have a lot of experience with these...........

[Typhoon Tip]

Funny … this was originally supposed to be a Friday thing for SNE.  Folks seemed to will Thursday night over the border… 

If it goes back to original heh

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if anyone had posted the latest BOX snow map 

 

I like that map.

[TalcottWx]

33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm thinking 4-6” is a safe bet in Greenfield. Should be the biggest so far this season.  
Not really concerned with elevation in these  set ups.  Lat/Long more important.  

Fat enough north to avoid the cold rain and snow

[TalcottWx]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if anyone had posted the latest BOX snow map 

 

Nice 0"

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SWFE, Ramp up qpf inside 24 hrs, Check, Come north inside 24 hrs, Check.

You forgot NAM wins with warm tongue racing in faster than expected at mid-levels.  Hopefully we won't be checking that off.

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Nice 0"

0.0

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Fat enough north to avoid the cold rain and snow

It's been trouble all my life.

[NorEastermass128]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if anyone had posted the latest BOX snow map 

 

I think it’s a little too light for coastal Essex. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You forgot NAM wins with warm tongue racing in faster than expected at mid-levels.  Hopefully we won't be checking that off.

They start sooner then modeled too.

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SWFE, Ramp up qpf inside 24 hrs, Check, Come north inside 24 hrs, Check.

00z 3km followed that a bit.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, dryslot said:

They start sooner ten modeled too.

Yes and dry slot faster too!

They are actually one of my favorite types of storms for my locale and elevation.  Nothing blockbuster but generally reliable.

[UnitedWx]

54 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What if one 50” storm that melts a week later?

Hey, 1888 redux... I'm down for that

[Typhoon Tip]

00z NAM with .6” liq equiv burst