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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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WB 0Z EPS Storm 2 for middle of next week is cooler for NW burbs Wed evening then storm one but by the time surface temps go below freezing overnight Wed. most of the precipitation is gone.  The members that consolidate and strengthen the coastal low further south give us more snow, so this needs to bs monitored the next few days for trends.

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WB OZ EPS Wave 3 potential which would come in Day 11 (30th to early Feb.) perhaps is the one to watch with cold enough air finally established aloft and at the surface.  Details to be determined.. But expectations should be kept in check for DC proper and East because most of the guidance does CURRENTLY keep the heaviest probability for significant accumulations N and W.  The probabilities have remained steady compared to 12Z yesterday, Have a good day everyone. Hope for shifts SE over the next few days…

 

 

 

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Both the Sunday-Mon and midweek storms are fundamentally problematic for the lower elevations because the antecedent airmass simply isn't very cold. Other than that one GFS run yesterday where the needle was threaded with phasing and the position/timing of the NS vortices in eastern Canada that allowed for a decent HP up north, the advertised surface look has relatively weak HP out in front sliding off the coast. Hard to win in the lowlands with that and a mediocre airmass in place, short of a strong low tracking off the VA Capes or something.

 

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26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Both the Sunday-Mon and midweek storms are fundamentally problematic for the lower elevations because the antecedent airmass simply isn't very cold. Other than that one GFS run yesterday where the needle was threaded with phasing and the position/timing of the NS vortices in eastern Canada that allowed for a decent HP up north, the advertised surface look has relatively weak HP out in front sliding off the coast. Hard to win in the lowlands with that and a mediocre airmass in place, short of a strong low tracking off the VA Capes or something.

 

 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Both the Sunday-Mon and midweek storms are fundamentally problematic for the lower elevations because the antecedent airmass simply isn't very cold. Other than that one GFS run yesterday where the needle was threaded with phasing and the position/timing of the NS vortices in eastern Canada that allowed for a decent HP up north, the advertised surface look has relatively weak HP out in front sliding off the coast. Hard to win in the lowlands with that and a mediocre airmass in place, short of a strong low tracking off the VA Capes or something.

 

It's almost like there is an unchanging theme this winter...........

I do think jayyy and others out west should keep an eye on Sunday. They have a chance with that one.

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10 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's almost like there is an unchanging theme this winter...........

I do think jayyy and others out west should keep an eye on Sunday. They have a chance with that one.

Everyone can make their own judgements based on location and climo. The western mountain locations clearly have the best chance for both events. I may take a trip out there for the second one next week.

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Shit the blinds time? Probably not.

After the storm next week is when we should finally see some decent cold arrive in our region. As advertised we will have a favorable h5 look into early Feb, esp on the GEFS and GEPS. Remains to be seen if this is mostly a cold/dry period followed by a warmup, or we get a chance or two with cold air actually in place.

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shit the blinds time? Probably not.

After the storm next week is when we should finally see some decent cold arrive in our region. As advertised we will have a favorable h5 look into early Feb, esp on the GEFS and GEPS. Remains to be seen if this is mostly a cold/dry period followed by a warmup, or we get a chance or two with cold air actually in place.

the 29th/30th has the highest potential out of all of them bc it could phase w a literal TPV as advertised by a few op runs

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shit the blinds time? Probably not.

After the storm next week is when we should finally see some decent cold arrive in our region. As advertised we will have a favorable h5 look into early Feb, esp on the GEFS and GEPS. Remains to be seen if this is mostly a cold/dry period followed by a warmup, or we get a chance or two with cold air actually in place.

Hopefully we dont shit them...thats some serious blowback. But yeah after the midweek storm it does look like we should be decently cold for a little while

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I pretty much just follow CAPE here lately. Every time I read his AM posts I don't need to do much else. Listen to him. It's not suddenly getting easy cold and snowing. That does happen and will happen again. Not right now. It's a carving process.

The only reason the next couple waves have any chance is the primo climo calender. The setups are heavily flawed in the temp dept as it stands right now. There is potential for something but man, after what I've seen this winter, accumulating snow for 90% of the forum seems incredibly unlikely. Tracking the promise of accum snow has a negative roi for me. 

Later next week and beyond is much more interesting but only if a reinforcing cold pattern sets up. Like a string of 10 days where CAA keeps pushing return flow out of the way quickly. Overhead and west tracks do snow here but not when each cold period is a single moderating airmass lol

 

Eta: I posted a few days ago about a really good d10 overrunning setup. My enthusiasm was avg at best because of winter's persistence... ridging and waa avection in front of every shortwave... 

 

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