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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Someone needs to start a thread for the Sunday system. It is only three days away. And while it looks bleak for most in the subforum. It doesnt for others. 12Z NAM has blue all the way into NW DC this run.

Yeah, better than expected. Snow depth change maps don't look quite as positive, but still blues. Surface temps above freezing for most of the region during the snowfall after 18z sunday.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Low on the NAM is in an ideal position and we still can't get snow.  What a winter!

NAM in a better position up this way with good digital blue but come game time it will be 33 and rain. I'd rather not be NAM'd tbh and just accept the inevitable. These models can take their digital blues and wipe their blinds-shitting rear-end with it!

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Man I don't care...The "it's a nina" argument doesn't quite explain having no slow even further up the east coast to this date. Even if we end up in a nina snow hole they always get something by now. That's niño behavior, imo...Some of the futility dates referenced here and elsewhere have linked back to niños, lol So this is just weird, imo (whatever it's worth, lol)

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I don't care...The "it's a nina" argument doesn't quite explain having no slow even further up the east coast to this date. Even if we end up in a nina snow hole they always get something by now. That's niño behavior, imo...Some of the futility dates referenced here and elsewhere have linked back to niños, lol So this is just weird, imo (whatever it's worth, lol)

But they ARE starting to get snow to the North. And they look to really start piling up. We could have used this snowpack up that way going INTO this week, not as a byproduct of this week. 

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Man I don't care...The "it's a nina" argument doesn't quite explain having no slow even further up the east coast to this date. Even if we end up in a nina snow hole they always get something by now. That's niño behavior, imo...Some of the futility dates referenced here and elsewhere have linked back to niños, lol So this is just weird, imo (whatever it's worth, lol)

Baltimore had a snowless winter in like ‘49. NYC has had them too. It happens man. It sucks donkey balls, but it happens. Some of it is just pure bad luck. The timing of cold and precip just isn’t there. When the southern jet gets active, there’s no cold air. When it shuts down, cold air arrives. Sometimes the odds just never work out. The odds of that happening are very slim, which is why it’s a rare occurrence, but it happens. The PAC is part of the problem, but we’ve gotten virtually zero Atlantic side help either this winter, which is why even Boston and NYC have gotten the screw job. IMO, this upcoming pattern screams NYC to BOS special. Likely not enough blocking for us, but they don’t need it as much as we do. The 0z cmc from last night was a perfect example. Wave 2 next week was a Miller B that hit NYC to BOS corridor pretty good - develops too late for us. We REALLY need a block. And not one that scours out in a day or two.
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