January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

My Daffodils are gonna love the watering over the next couple of weeks.

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

My Daffodils are gonna love the watering over the next couple of weeks.

Cool- keep us posted

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It has become unusable at this point. They need to go back to the old GFS. At least you knew it's biases 

GFS=Getting Fng Stupid.

[Ji]

I can't believe dumb Americans would build a model that never shows snow during the worst winter of our lives.

Dear america...please fix the gfs to show multiple snowstorms again on the same run no matter what the pattern

[yoda]

Everyone gets some frozen on the 00z CMC for the 25-26th storm

[TSSN+]

The gfs is terrible till it’s right, the euro is the best till it’s wrong. Pretty much how this winter has been. Anytime there’s multiple models showing snow the one model not has usually won. And if the euro is alone showing snow, forget it. 

[Ji]

Everyone gets some frozen on the 00z CMC for the 25-26th storm

The more wintry solutions are much slower in developing the storm than the gfs who has it outta here by late Tuesday

[Ji]

MMSA

Make models snow again

[Ji]

Gfs looks good for the city and the burbs next weekend

If u like bright sun

[Ji]

The gulf is open for business


Like sears and Bed bath and beyond

[Ji]

Congrats Mexico city

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gulf is open for business


Like sears and Bed bath and beyond

Yeah it looks like it's stirring something but gets the squash treatment this run. I'm interested to see what if anything happens after wave 2...

[Ji]

This is from the ku book...5th edition

[Ji]

Yeah it looks like it's stirring something but gets the squash treatment this run. I'm interested to see what if anything happens after wave 2...

Yes...you wave winter goodbye

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it looks like it's stirring something but gets the squash treatment this run. I'm interested to see what if anything happens after wave 2...

Yes...you wave winter goodbye

You're not allowed to give up on your own storm 11-12 days away.

[Ji]

You're not allowed to give up on your own storm 11-12 days away.

Cape or Ava can have it....I don't want my name attached to anything from this winter

[RedSky]

This is the actual worst GFS run of this November winter so far, and it's still running!

[Ji]

This is the actual worst GFS run of this November winter so far, and it's still running!

I wish it would of stopped at hour 6

[pazzo83]

Just now, RedSky said:

This is the actual worst GFS run of this November winter so far, and it's still running!

maybe someone can just unplug the servers in whatever data center it runs in?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

maybe someone can just unplug the servers in whatever data center it runs in?

Wait so they haven't been doing that every model run? 

[jayyy]

Yeah it looks like it's stirring something but gets the squash treatment this run. I'm interested to see what if anything happens after wave 2...

228 OP surface depiction… what could go wrong


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[jayyy]

Yes...you wave winter goodbye

Isn’t there a panic room thread? Jesus Ji. Get it together.


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[jayyy]

That death-band over my parents house just outside NYC is insane on that run.


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[jayyy]

Come onnnn 00z Euro. Give us the goods


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[jayyy]

00z CMC = close but no cigar for wave 1 with a low that tracks directly over Baltimore to NYC (slightly inland)

Wave 2 is a Miller b - primary tracks to Ohio as a secondary low forms over the Carolina’s. Phasing happens too late and is an interior NE special

Plenty of time for both to adjust a bunch of times, but that’s the verbatim outcome on tonight’s run.


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[jayyy]

Wave 1 CMC


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[jayyy]

Wave 2…. Part 1

Primary tracks into the OV with secondary beginning to take shape


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[jayyy]

Wave 2, part 2

Secondary takes over, intensifies into a 984 low along the NE coast. Too late for our area for the goods verbatim, but the NW crew does see some snow. Wave 2 is 7-8 days away however, so things will shift a ton between now and then. Never a good idea to worry too much about surface details from this far out.

Could just as easily see the primary track further east and therefore see the secondary pop further east. Expecting a bunch of waffling over the next week, especially once wave 1 comes and goes and models begin to pick up on it’s impact on wave 2. Really hoping we see wave 1 lay the groundwork for wave 2 with it being only 2 days prior. Need that sucker to drag the boundary south

[Heisy]

EPS (18z) vs GEFS (00z) day 6

Completely different, euro, colder solution brings NS ahead. One side is going to cave very soon

Knowing this winter…

Woops I picked the wrong times, but same idea




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[jayyy]

EPS (18z) vs GEFS (00z) day 6

Completely different, euro, colder solution brings NS ahead. One side is going to cave very soon

Knowing this winter….




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GEFS will cave.


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