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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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Did you forget December? It is fair to say that the Atlantic side help "failed" but it did happen. 

I didn’t forget December. 2-3 weeks of blocking isn’t much help in the grand scheme of the entire winter season. We also rarely get snow in December in these parts. That’s just our climo. Anyone who was expecting December to pop off had their expectations set way too high. It’s a rarity that we get snow before winter actually starts (12/21) over the past few decades. NYC? Sure. I saw a ton of December winter storms where I grew up. Many of them were very borderline. Many of them were also upstate specials and left the coastline wet. So much has to go right that early in the season for it to snow along the 95 metro corridor. The Atlantic is still so warm in December versus late January thru February. Any semblance of a SE fetch and we’re toast. These days were talking about record warmth in the Atlantic going into winter - which makes it even harder to snow in an already marginal climo setup.
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48 minutes ago, jayyy said:


I didn’t forget December. 2-3 weeks of blocking isn’t much help in the grand scheme of the entire winter season. We also rarely get snow in December in these parts. That’s just our climo. Anyone who was expecting December to pop off had their expectations set way too high. It’s a rarity that we get snow before winter actually starts (12/21) over the past few decades. NYC? Sure. I saw a ton of December winter storms where I grew up. Many of them were very borderline. Many of them were also upstate specials and left the coastline wet. So much has to go right that early in the season for it to snow along the 95 metro corridor. The Atlantic is still so warm in December versus late January thru February. Any semblance of a SE fetch and we’re toast. These days were talking about record warmth in the Atlantic going into winter - which makes it even harder to snow in an already marginal climo setup.

This is getting dangerously close to over the line but it used to be rare to get a good pattern in December but when one happened it wasn’t that hard to get snow. Even in the recent past.  Nov/Dec 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 all produced snow across our area. It never felt like it was super difficult to get it to snow if the pattern was ok. The reason snow averages are so low in Dec compared to Jan/Feb was big snows were rare early because with warmer waters I do think big wound up amplified storms are difficult to stay snow and without those 10”+ storms there is nothing to average out the 0 snow years. But getting 2-4” in December was very very common until recently. 

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This is getting dangerously close to over the line but it used to be rare to get a good pattern in December but when one happened it wasn’t that hard to get snow. Even in the recent past.  Nov/Dec 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 all produced snow across our area. It never felt like it was super difficult to get it to snow if the pattern was ok. The reason snow averages are so low in Dec compared to Jan/Feb was big snows were rare early because with warmer waters I do think big wound up amplified storms are difficult to stay snow and without those 10”+ storms there is nothing to average out the 0 snow years. But getting 2-4” in December was very very common until recently. 

My area and your area? Or Baltimore and DC? Because I feel like there’s a massive difference between our areas and the metro 95 corridor when it comes to December snow. I may be mistaken, but even in NYC, the immediate coast / 95 corridor struggles in December versus places 30-50+ miles inland. Can recall a good number of December storms where we got snow / mix in the lower Hudson valley (2-4/3-6” type storms) and they’d get rain SE of the NYS thruway (87/287 tends to be the fall line up there) Can also recall a few biggies where we saw a foot and they saw zilch. The Atlantic is just such a snow-killer that early on in the season.

Even if all things line up correctly, getting a 2-4” storm or two in December still feels like a tough battle. Being near the coast is just a tough place to be for December snowfall. It’s just so hard to avoid that SE component, especially during storms that track close to the coast. The few metro December snows I remember in NYC were either clippers that dragged the boundary way south by tracking off the central NJ coast or coastal scrapers, which took a more offshore track but close enough to throw precip back into the area.
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3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Euro doesn't cut as strong as the GFS with the mid-week deal next week.  Maybe some front end? Marginal temps.  Stronger high in quebec but mid level winds out of the toasty south over our region. Let's pray for stronger CAD and a further SE track

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

It looks so close to something great.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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1 hour ago, jayyy said:


I didn’t forget December. 2-3 weeks of blocking isn’t much help in the grand scheme of the entire winter season. We also rarely get snow in December in these parts. That’s just our climo. Anyone who was expecting December to pop off had their expectations set way too high. It’s a rarity that we get snow before winter actually starts (12/21) over the past few decades. NYC? Sure. I saw a ton of December winter storms where I grew up. Many of them were very borderline. Many of them were also upstate specials and left the coastline wet. So much has to go right that early in the season for it to snow along the 95 metro corridor. The Atlantic is still so warm in December versus late January thru February. Any semblance of a SE fetch and we’re toast. These days were talking about record warmth in the Atlantic going into winter - which makes it even harder to snow in an already marginal climo setup.

I can count in one hand the number of times in the last 50 years we had blocking that lasted longer than that in one run or persisted all season.  Other than super rare years like 1996 and 2010 we’ve always had to rely on hitting during a 2-3 week window.  And it’s not always going to come in our preferred 8 weeks of prime climo.  Some good years had to work with early or late blocks.  1960 it was March.  1969 and 1970 were December. The best snow of 1987-88 was in November!   Nov-Dec 89 and 90 saved those years. Snowed a lot early 02 03 and 04. Only big snow was Dec 07/08. Dec 09!!!   We can’t always afford to toss everything before Jan 1 and After Mar 1 as if it doesn’t count. Plenty of years we’re decent only because of what happened early and late. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It looks so close to something great.

 

Seasonal trend has been for these lows to cut NW as we get closer to game time,  and not get pushed south. I'll hold out hope for a wiggle S/E so I can get a couple inches of front end like the January storm last year before it flopped to rain in the metros

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2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Seasonal trend has been for these lows to cut NW as we get closer to game time,  and not get pushed south. I'll hold out hope for a wiggle S/E so I can get a couple inches of front end like the January storm last year before it flopped to rain in the metros

I'm aware, but it is so painful to see how classic it looks before cutting to Ohio, maybe we can get a miracle for once but most likely its a hopefully couple inches of snow northwest of the metros to rain.

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm aware, but it is so painful to see how classic it looks before cutting to Ohio, maybe we can get a miracle for once but most likely its a hopefully couple inches of snow northwest of the metros to rain.

Agreed 100% -- the euro prior to 132 hours almost cues up jaws music in my head. 

sn10_024h-imp.us_ma.png

This will keep me in the game but I am mindful of how the euro had a more positive depiction (than GFS) of the pre-christmas arctic front storm deal at one week out. GFS won :(

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm aware, but it is so painful to see how classic it looks before cutting to Ohio, maybe we can get a miracle for once but most likely its a hopefully couple inches of snow northwest of the metros to rain.

Yeah man don't fall for that, lol This is why I'm pretty much ignoring both of those waves! I'm hoping we can try to get something behind them

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Even the JMA is a transfer to an inside runner. That model is usually farther E than other guidance. I95 and se of fall line are on life support next 7 days imo.

I would say even those of us NW of the cities are on life support at this point. Trends are not our friends (this season).

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That neither wave next week is gonna work out didn't surprise me...I mean they were low probability from the start and I largely ignored them save 12z yesterday when there was a slight hiccup. Now what would be more disappointing is if we can't manage to pull off flakes of some kind the following weekend. That's the period I've been kinda keyed in on since last week...I mean maybe it'll be persistence again, maybe not. We haven't seen the setup look quite like that either and we have a little more cold to the north. So be it by a little piece of energy or something more...it's worth watching (nothin' to lose, lol) And even after that let's just see where it goes...

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There is one simple problem. Look…

day 7 ecmwf

752EEBDA-E277-434D-B949-9FF09CD8D668.thumb.jpeg.b48d51d83c56976523eebba5e1232cc1.jpeg

This should be the seeding eastern US with arctic air.  Don’t anyone say a thing about the pac or puke this is a straight flow off the arctic into a broad trough.  

But look 4 days later…

F0C25D33-644D-461A-88DD-D2969C7E945C.thumb.jpeg.d0139ddf9445b32b24e43785ccf5c9e1.jpeg

severely displaced PV and it’s just not cold enough.  Despite a continued CP airmass and straight feed off the arctic the boundary is at our latitude which isn’t good enough because any wave along the boundary will push it north of us if it can only barely get your latitude between waves.  
 
ITS JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH and it has nothing to do with the pac in that case! 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You mean the .1 it shows at DC over the weekend after this one? Just confused to his post about being disappointed if next weekend doesn't work out. 

sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ma.png

I think the point is that there are a lot of the “prerequisites” coming into to play that could/should/would provide winter precip to this AOR.

 

However, as Hoffman continues to allude to, we’re marginal at best temperature wise.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is one simple problem. Look…

day 7 ecmwf

752EEBDA-E277-434D-B949-9FF09CD8D668.thumb.jpeg.b48d51d83c56976523eebba5e1232cc1.jpeg

This should be the seeding eastern US with arctic air.  Don’t anyone date say a thing about the pac or puke this is a straight flow off the arctic into a broad trough.  

But look 4 days later…

F0C25D33-644D-461A-88DD-D2969C7E945C.thumb.jpeg.d0139ddf9445b32b24e43785ccf5c9e1.jpeg

severely displaced PV and it’s just not cold enough.  Despite a continued CP airmass and straight feed off the arctic the boundary is at our latitude which isn’t good enough because any wave along the boundary will push it north of us if it can only barely get your latitude between waves.  
 
ITS JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH and it has nothing to do with the pac in that case! 

 

 

We can clearly see some adjacent cold air coming into Canada in the late runs. Not sure if anything will be available to displace that further south for early Feb

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is one simple problem. Look…

day 7 ecmwf

752EEBDA-E277-434D-B949-9FF09CD8D668.thumb.jpeg.b48d51d83c56976523eebba5e1232cc1.jpeg

This should be the seeding eastern US with arctic air.  Don’t anyone say a thing about the pac or puke this is a straight flow off the arctic into a broad trough.  

But look 4 days later…

F0C25D33-644D-461A-88DD-D2969C7E945C.thumb.jpeg.d0139ddf9445b32b24e43785ccf5c9e1.jpeg

severely displaced PV and it’s just not cold enough.  Despite a continued CP airmass and straight feed off the arctic the boundary is at our latitude which isn’t good enough because any wave along the boundary will push it north of us if it can only barely get your latitude between waves.  
 
ITS JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH and it has nothing to do with the pac in that case! 

 

 

it's because the ridge out west retrogrades into the ocean, pumping a ridge for a bit. the cold air is coming verbatim

Ninas do that crap sometimes. it's annoying

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