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January 2023 Banter


George BM
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13 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Commanders 

2- 5 with Wentz

6 - 3 -1 with Heinike/Howell

Wentz was just awful this year. Sounds like he may be out of the league.

BMitch on the post-game show really putting alot of blame on RR for not reading his players in regards to starting Wentz last week.

Team definitely played different with any QB not named Carson in the game.

 

 

If it wasn't for the ownership mess, he would almost certainly be in danger of losing his job.

I do however see next season playing out as a carbon copy of 1999 -

1) New owner

2) Talented roster with us picking up the one or two pieces missing for a successful campaign (QB, O-line)

3) Coach with only mediocre success to date. Has success. Saves his job for another year.

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11 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Happy GB Packers Elimination Day!

I think for me the best case scenario was for both Detroit and Green Bay to not make it in although I don't particularly hate Dan Campbell and the Lions it's just that i would only prefer the Vikings to make it in...way too much familiarity with division foes to want to mess with that in the playoffs. Hoping my Vikings can show up next week against the Giants

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14 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I think for me the best case scenario was for both Detroit and Green Bay to not make it in although I don't particularly hate Dan Campbell and the Lions it's just that i would only prefer the Vikings to make it in...way too much familiarity with division foes to want to mess with that in the playoffs. Hoping my Vikings can show up next week against the Giants

Giants fan - ya'll got lucky last time. I'm feeling an '08-'09 repeat season for the G-Men :D

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Obs threads only for me the rest of my career.  No more model threads.  That will delight many .

Ji whines and most think it’s cute.  Fact statements however are  a different matter.  That’s true nowdays in society in general.  Don’t tread on wishes nor feelings.

And my observations over 20 years of watching model worship are not empty.  The resolution is scrap the pure math, Mother Nature is composed of more than that. With the incredible super computing it’s entirely possible to devise analog based forecasting instead of possibility examples.  Simply put, use the trends from the past to predict what will most likely follow based on how it played out in the past.

But the will to do that is absent because model projection cover all bases and then claim verification when one example turns out.  Prediction is what is desired, not sampling examples.

Also, good ole fashioned NOAA radio and even Euro don’t try  to bite off more than they can chew.  Pretty much 5 days and inside which is all that is realistically needed anyway.  7,10,20 day stuff amounts to nothing more than cartoons. 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Obs threads only for me the rest of my career.  No more model threads.  That will delight many .

Ji whines and most think it’s cute.  Fact statements however are  a different matter.  That’s true nowdays in society in general.  Don’t tread on wishes nor feelings.

And my observations over 20 years of watching model worship are not empty.  The resolution is scrap the pure math, Mother Nature is composed of more than that. With the incredible super computing it’s entirely possible to devise analog based forecasting instead of possibility examples.  Simply put, use the trends from the past to predict what will most likely follow based on how it played out in the past.

But the will to do that is absent because model projection cover all bases and then claim verification when one example turns out.  Prediction is what is desired, not sampling examples.

Also, good ole fashioned NOAA radio and even Euro don’t try  to bite off more than they can chew.  Pretty much 5 days and inside which is all that is realistically needed anyway.  7,10,20 day stuff amounts to nothing more than cartoons. 

 

 

I very much agree with the forecasting part of this post.

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At least we have winter sports.  CFP Championship tonight.  NFL playoffs incoming.  Bball and hockey ongoing.  Spring training right around the corner lol.

I was hoping for some snow to get some hiking in at Gambrill.  It's cool to be able to hike the same trails in the snow that I've been biking.  November in January.  Maybe February will be February.

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I've found this page to be really enlightening when it comes to seeing the snowfall anomalies across the US over the years.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/202202/supplemental/page-5

Hard to point to one place in one year to make a sweeping claim that the changing base state is affecting everywhere in the same way.

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54 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I've found this page to be really enlightening when it comes to seeing the snowfall anomalies across the US over the years.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/202202/supplemental/page-5

Hard to point to one place in one year to make a sweeping claim that the changing base state is affecting everywhere in the same way.

I must be missing something.  When did Baltimore get 14 inches in the past year?

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2 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

bwisnow.pdf (weather.gov)

Apparently BWI had 13.3" in January last year. I remember one decent storm (looking back at my pics). I think we got around 8" here in Ellicott City.

Yeah…January 2022 was a solid winter month. Two events the first week, one warning and one high-advisory level, then the MLK day storm, and then a couple minor events.

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