Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) not buying any kind of pattern change for at least two more weeks. plan on historic cold/snow then 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder and lightning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 this will be the coldest winter of the rest of your lives 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) not buying any kind of pattern change for at least two more weeks. Great news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL No 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL Oh now I see it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: No Okay It should be 3 weeks at best and then back to warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunderstorms affected Philadelphia, Newark, and JFK Airport this evening. Additional rain is likely tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. Temperatures will be well above seasonal norms. Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the week. An offshore storm could spread clouds into the region Sunday into Monday. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Farther west, the measurable snow drought will likely continue in Philadelphia and New York City. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was -0.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.609 today. On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.745 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.914 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Nothing like dodging thunderstorms on way into JFK on January 12th. WTF is going on?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Nothing like dodging thunderstorms on way into JFK on January 12th. WTF is going on?? Welcome to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scootmandu Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Had thunderstorms within the last hour. Closest strike 4/10 of a mile to our west. We have picked up .30 so far. Since 3:30 PM, temp went up 10 degrees, as the wind switched from the east to the south. We topped out at 53.2 a short time ago, and now down from that slightly tp 51.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOLWe see you how you have been telling us about this good pattern since November. Maybe it will actually happen come February? Or are you thinking March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 I was a bit taken aback when I saw lightning this evening driving home from work in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Okay It should be 3 days at best and then back to warmth. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: FIXED Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We see you how you have been telling us about this good pattern since November. Maybe it will actually happen come February? Or are you thinking March? Late month and shut up All the ensembles are showing it. Have fun now because we know you will dissappear soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Late month and shut up All the ensembles are showing it. Have fun now because we know you will dissappear soon. Show me a good map from the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 March coming in like a lion tonight. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 All right everybody. How many inches of lightning did you get? Lol. Next BN day the 28th? The ensembles look better than the ops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 38 minutes ago, Rjay said: Show me a good map from the ensembles Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time. Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 A change is coming and snow should come with it. It starts before this timeframe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time. Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. What works for New England doesn't necessarily work for us. I respect Brooklyn but I'm not excited looking at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A change is coming and snow should come with it. It starts before this timeframe. Posting day 15. Ok, thanks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Average mean temperature first eleven days of the year: Central Park: 45.5 degrees Las Vegas: 48.5 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Pattern looks really good on all the ensembles. This time looks real . Get ready . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 On 1/1/2023 at 12:17 PM, MJO812 said: Agree We will snow soon How soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time. Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. The Jan thread over there is a comical trainwreck...reality is setting in, it's not happening. MJO skipped right over 8 and 1....so we have a small window...maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: You may be absolutely correct and you’re undoubtedly extremely knowledgeable. I actually really enjoy your posts despite your reputation for being a downer. With that said, I do find it kind of odd that on a science forum we have posters telling the professionals here that they’re wrong (or in SnoSki’s case actually calling one “naive?”). It is also, undoubtedly, much easier to keep calling for essentially a continuation of “warm and shitty” during a warm and shitty winter. I think what becomes irksome (at least IMHO) is how you guys have a tendency to imply what you’re saying is verbatim fact and not just an interpretation or opinion. Even if you end up right, I’m still going to lend more weight to what the professional meteorologists that post here have to offer on the subject. Of course it doesn’t mean they’re infallible or that you (and others) are wrong, certainly. But the point is we don’t know for certain how things are going to play out. It’s been a very complicated winter to forecast for the multitude of reasons we all know 50x over by now. This is America. Expert means nothing to anyone anymore.. er... Maybe they never did? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: All right everybody. How many inches of lightning did you get? Lol. Next BN day the 28th? The ensembles look better than the ops. i see a giraffe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 23 minutes ago, USCG RS said: This is America. Expert means nothing to anyone anymore.. er... Maybe they never did? Oh, they mean something alright. People just don't like what they have to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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