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January 2023


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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Today is going to bust IMO. The new 3K NAM, RGEM, HRRR and ICON all have a total non event

A bust from….what exactly? A few hours of snow? Christ man, get it together. 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Do you not see the WWA for 2-3 inches of snow for Rockland??? These models don’t even have an inch

Which you already posted about, ad nauseam last night. So its either gonna bust in the other direction now, which i know you didnt mean, or youre just posting the same thing, again. 

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Which you already posted about, ad nauseam last night. So its either gonna bust in the other direction now, which i know you didnt mean, or youre just posting the same thing, again. 

I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years
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Fourth consecutive January at Central Park without a single digit reading. Last time something like that happened? 1989 - 1993.

Imagine being in elementary school for that and watching TWC religiously. (And Pre-Internet)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years

I could probably count on one hand the times that you even acknowledge the fact that the pattern is conducive for snow or a storm will produce snow and even then you would find the model with the least amount of snow and post it. No one hates you, you just lean too much to one side in a forum of snow weenies. It’s cool to be objective and see it from both sides just saying.

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Felt like looking at the failed ssw attempt a little closer. It's not going to work out, but I like to try to learn why. As I was saying from the earliest mention of it. It's highly dependent upon how the troposphere progresses. Always is, this is where the wave driving happens to cause the warming. To me, in hindsight, it was just a little off. It was close, but it looks like the Pacific just didn't quite get it right. Everything else is there, but again, it's a little off. This one is mainly about the Pacific though I think. I could absolutely be wrong, but that's my guess. 

compday.PuJfL_mQga.gif.96394bc91f2e5d8a7781526bf32f1a9e.gif

20221203_122236.jpg.f01c02631488716f0dc9791aaa67b83c.jpg

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The last 7 days of January are averaging      41degs.(36/46) or +8.

Month to date is     43.1[+9.3].         January should end at     42.7[+9.0]  Second Place.

Reached 48 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:     41-44, wind e.-breezy, Rain 1PM-3AM, 40 tomorrow AM.

"I knew you had it in you son all January long:":

1674626400-KKZcrIVPxGM.png

38*(56%RH) here at 6am.{37* at 4am.}       39* at 8am.     41* at 9am.      42* at 10am.      43* at 11am.      44* at 11:30pm.       42* at Noon-Rain.       41* at 12:30pm.       41* at 4pm.        44* at 6pm.      47* at 8pm.      50* at 10pm-been foggy/rainy for two hours.

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6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 7 days of January are averaging      41degs.(36/46) or +8.

Month to date is     43.1[+9.3].         January should end at     42.7[+9.0]  Second Place.

Reached 48 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:     41-44, wind e.-breezy, Rain 1PM-3AM, 40 tomorrow AM.

"I knew you had it in you son all January long:":

1674626400-KKZcrIVPxGM.png

38*(56%RH) here at 6am.{37* at 4am.}       39* at 8am.

The 2.5” shown for today won’t verify. And that’s from today’s 6z run! 

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 2.5” shown for today won’t verify. And that’s from today’s 6z run! 

It's really early, however I have to start wondering if CPK can go through the season with under 1 inch.

If will be difficult with the favorable period coming up as well as the late season volatility, however going into Feb under 1 you have to start contemplating.

Per the below we may be heading towards phase 8 earlier than expected in February. That may be the make or break period if the 5 to 7 day window in Early Feb fails.

I believe Phase 8 leads to Blocking, which would follow the guideline of blocking late season after realizing blocking in December.

image.png.c3fb00e983a252c016ca3ae8750fcf88.png

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Didn't realize he was predicting a +PNA. That's a switch lol. But yeah we shall see if the hints on the latest guidance of a +PNA is a mirage. If that's real, the mid month period might be workable. Most extended products have the NAO trending towards neutral/negative just after mid month fwiw.

From the MA forum. Found this interesting.

Models are probably rushing this but would align with the latest MJO plots.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:


I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years

Good morning S19. Please stay, as in stay the course. Hate, a word of few letters with, unfortunately, a far reaching meaning applies neither to you or Bx. I believe he was replying to your post as another poster not a Moderator. We sentient sapiens are imperfect as are the models we create. Without views given on all sides we would also become unseeing. Please continue to see things as you do as will all the other (including our Will) well versed posters on our forums. Stay well, as always. ….

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's really early, however I have to start wondering if CPK can go through the season with under 1 inch.

If will be difficult with the favorable period coming up as well as the late season volatility, however going into Feb under 1 you have to start contemplating.

Per the below we may be heading towards phase 8 earlier than expected in February. That may be the make or break period of the 5 to 7 day window in Early Feb fails.

I believe Phase 8 leads to Blocking, which would follow the guideline of blocking late season after realizing blocking in December.

image.png.c3fb00e983a252c016ca3ae8750fcf88.png

A bit of caution from me on that MJO forecast. That may not be what you would think. We've already had a jet extension give us a false signal once. Seeing it rocket east like that now, brings up the memory of that. Just something to consider. We'll see. 

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10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

A bit of caution from me on that MJO forecast. That may not be what you would think. We've already had a jet extension give us a false signal once. Seeing it rocket east like that now, brings up the memory of that. Just something to consider. We'll see. 

Yeah I was pondering the head-fakes of this year. That being said, we are kind of following the la Nina blueprint so far. Early season snow for half the forum and neg NAO with potential in December occurred (the 2nd storm messed up the 3rd but that's another discussion). The warm/snowless January and potentially Feb. 

Late February and March are typically the other window in la Ninas. Sure we could go 11/12 warmth but return of blocking when occurence in December, la Nina tendencies, make me think that this could be legit.

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School is closed.  Just overcast at the moment.  The last time they closed like this, I remember it ended up being the better call to make because there was a bad 3 hours or so right around school dismissal time.  We'll see if that's the case today.

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10 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

School is closed.  Just overcast at the moment.  The last time they closed like this, I remember it ended up being the better call to make because there was a bad 3 hours or so right around school dismissal time.  We'll see if that's the case today.

Wow they cancelled school in Sparta? Itching to burn some snow days I guess, lol. I have a good friend up in Montague, wondering what she'll even see.

It's good to be cautious though, no doubt.

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