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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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This week definitely hasn’t felt like a disaster here. It’s now the 6th day in a row with snow (sand-like snowfall tonight after very fluffy stuff in the past few days) with a winter storm watch for 6-12” of additional snow. Skiing is amazing, and they’re getting ready to open the areas that are still closed; should be about fully open by the weekend. Glade skiing has been awesome. Give me a few more weeks of this and I’ll be happy to switch to spring. 

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The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE.  A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow.  Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps.  Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours.  It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now.

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yuck...wish the Euro woulda gone ahead and just canceled that run -  Lamar Hamlin run...

I didn’t hate that run…decent overrunning potential shown there even if it didn’t crush us verbatim on that run. 

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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE.  A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow.  Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps.  Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours.  It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now.

I’d say that about all the models lately. Euro blows too, can’t trust that pos beyond 2 or 3 days either.  
 

But day 12…c’mon?  You should know that isn’t reasonable to expect things to hold from 12 days out…no matter what it shows-good or bad. 

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25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d say that about all the models lately. Euro blows too, can’t trust that pos beyond 2 or 3 days either.  
 

But day 12…c’mon?  You should know that isn’t reasonable to expect things to hold from 12 days out…no matter what it shows-good or bad. 

My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day.

The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out.  We've seen that countless times this winter.

Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE.

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24 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day.

The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out.  We've seen that countless times this winter.

Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE.

Who latched on? Lol. Nobody did. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Who latched on? Lol. Nobody did. 

There were some throwing tantrums in here a while ago I remember. I had to keep telling them that 1/23 and 1/25 looked pretty cruddy. 
 

There’s no doubt the core of the cold in the pattern change has been delayed some, but the end has been pushed back too. Once that PV wobbles into favorable position, we get arctic cold and likely several rolls of the dice. 

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure why there’s so much despair here over a cold gradient pattern. makes no sense

Desperation sets in after a while I think for some. It clouds judgement and then you have emotional hedging too…they might sort of think the pattern is actually fine, but it’s still not super easy to snow even in good patterns (esp southern zones near water), and if it doesn’t this time, it feels like winter is totally shot…so best to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised if it pans out. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There were some throwing tantrums in here a while ago I remember. I had to keep telling them that 1/23 and 1/25 looked pretty cruddy. 
 

There’s no doubt the core of the cold in the pattern change has been delayed some, but the end has been pushed back too. Once that PV wobbles into favorable position, we get arctic cold and likely several rolls of the dice. 

This is a good point. The “end” of this imo as well has been pushed back from what I was thinking. 

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I had tomorrow’s  system in mind when I Hamlin-ed the Euro run. 

There’s nothing specifically uninspiring with it beyond that. 

Regardless of any particular model’s present peregrinations … the GEFs derived telecon spread suggests a significant event might materialize between the 2nd and 7th of Feb

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Posted myself several days ago that the 26th and 27th is really when 850 mbar changing of the guard happens across the entire continent.  

Problem with sniffing out a pattern change 2 1/2 weeks ahead is that it’s an eternity of impatience waiting for that to happen.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Setting you up for s great snow storm 

I don’t know. BTV doesn’t seem overly enthusiastic with totals. They’re saying we mix. 
 

Wednesday Night
Snow before midnight, then snow and sleet likely between midnight and 4am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 
Thursday
A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of snow showers after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Posted myself several days ago that the 26th and 27th is really when 850 mbar changing of the guard happens across the entire continent.  

Problem with sniffing out a pattern change 2 1/2 weeks ahead is that it’s an eternity of impatience waiting for that to happen.

Ya not getting the 2-5” treats down here has made us very impatient down south.  Let’s see what happens. 

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7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I don’t know. BTV doesn’t seem overly enthusiastic with totals. They’re saying we mix. 
 

Wednesday Night
Snow before midnight, then snow and sleet likely between midnight and 4am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 
Thursday
A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of snow showers after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

PF Point and click is 12 to 18

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2 hours ago, alex said:

This week definitely hasn’t felt like a disaster here. It’s now the 6th day in a row with snow (sand-like snowfall tonight after very fluffy stuff in the past few days) with a winter storm watch for 6-12” of additional snow. Skiing is amazing, and they’re getting ready to open the areas that are still closed; should be about fully open by the weekend. Glade skiing has been awesome. Give me a few more weeks of this and I’ll be happy to switch to spring. 

You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked 

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked 

The funny thing is it has gone terribly wrong for them there many times, while we had HECS after HECS in SNE. So they’ve been skunked plenty too over the last decade. 

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