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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nope...Atlantic has no blocking. When the PV does migrated toward Davis Strait though later in the period, its pretty massive, so it extends far enough south to almost act as a defacto 50/50 low maybe displaced a bit north. We saw a similar type thing happen in Dec 2007....monster PV over there so it gave New England their own little area of confluence which helped out in all those SWFEs.

This isn't a KU cookbook pattern....it's going to be a cold gradient pattern where we're at the mercy of individual scooter streaks, phasing, etc. They can be very prolific sometimes, but other times you just get frustrated (see Feb '89)

 

My money is on a Dec 2007 type evolution.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2.

I'll be in the hospital from 2/1 until about 2/5....very dangerous period for a snow weenie to be away from his blog.

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Trough ejection through the Lakes is tied to the mode positioning though. I'd think that 2-3-4th is vulnerable...   The Euro's leaving the S stream behind and overbearing with the N/stream - it may be right, but I'm willing to bet that modulates in future runs.

The CFS has 995 mb Miller A at this range tied to the same hemispheric scale mechanisms - the models is what it is... ( not a statement as to its veracity) but that's a meaty D8+ signal for a climate modulated product, just the same.   Yeah yeah yeah the model has a modest cold bias do to needing/lacking updates but the air mass is deeply cold enough regardless of mode source to subsume any such CFS error.   

The last time we saw an index scaled/mass signal was the Buff bomb, btw -  ... just to poke the hornets nest LOL.  I don't expect cryo dystopian carnage but I like the signal.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Trough ejection through the Lakes is tied to the mode positioning though. I'd think that 2-3-4th is vulnerable...   The Euro's leaving the S stream behind and overbearing with the N/stream - it may be right, but I'm willing to bet that modulates in future runs.

The CFS has 995 mb Miller A at this range tied to the same hemispheric scale mechanisms - the models is what it is... ( not a statement as to its veracity) but that's meaty D8+ signal for a climate modulated product, just the same.   Yeah yeah yeah the model has a modest cold do to needing/lacking updates but the air mass is deeply cold enough regardless of mode source to subsume any such CFS error.   

The last time we saw an index scaled/mass signal was the Buff bomb, btw -  ... just to poke the hornets nest LOL.  I don't expect cryo dystopian carnage but I like the signal.

Watch that turn into this season's big dog, while I'm off at Holy Family trying to untangle umbilical cords. :axe:

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This month looks to destroy my grading system - the temp, mildest of 25 Januarys by far - merits F-minus.  If we get snow in the forecast 8-12 range, that makes the month worth an A.  Even with snow weighted 2x temp, the results would look inappropriate.  (I'm not opposed to subjective adjustments.  :D )

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5 hours ago, tamarack said:

This month looks to destroy my grading system - the temp, mildest of 25 Januarys by far - merits F-minus.  If we get snow in the forecast 8-12 range, that makes the month worth an A.  Even with snow weighted 2x temp, the results would look inappropriate.  (I'm not opposed to subjective adjustments.  :D )

What do you have so far for the month snowwise?

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5 hours ago, tamarack said:

This month looks to destroy my grading system - the temp, mildest of 25 Januarys by far - merits F-minus.  If we get snow in the forecast 8-12 range, that makes the month worth an A.  Even with snow weighted 2x temp, the results would look inappropriate.  (I'm not opposed to subjective adjustments.  :D )

Some times, temps and snow are inversely related, that’s what has happened to you this January. Just goes to show ya don’t need it frigid to snow in NE. Above normal temp, and above normal snow for you. Nuances and timing is all ya need at peak climo. 

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We had the first decent snowstorm here  since early December and we don’t even get to enjoy it for more than 36 hours.  Outside of last night I’ve barely been below freezing the past week.

Current storm is going to end up a woefully underperforming, odd SWFE that did not even produce the low end forecast totals in SNE.  Didn’t even get the obligatory transition to Pingers just went from snow to 32.5° rain. 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We had the first decent snowstorm here  since early December and we don’t even get to enjoy it for more than 36 hours.  Outside of last night I’ve barely been below freezing the past week.

Current storm is going to end up a woefully underperforming, odd SWFE that did not even produce the low end forecast totals in SNE.  Didn’t even get the obligatory transition to Pingers just went from snow to 32.5° rain. 

Modeling couldn’t get the snow right at 12 hrs out lol. The 80’s are back. 

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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I remember the 80's being drier though.  Not as many misery rains.

Ahhh I dont know.  Almost Every single snow forecast would bust low. Sure there were a few big ones, but vast majority of systems were always ruined some how some way. I used to say to my family and friends…”SNE is the land of the sabotaged snow storm.”   And this year we are back to exactly that here. 

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Looks like KBOS may have its warmest Jan low temp on record. Low temp this month sitting at 23, and does not look likely to go lower until right around Feb 1. Previous record is 22 (2002, 2 days that month) and before that 18 in 1932 and 15 in 1953.

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31 minutes ago, ariof said:

Looks like KBOS may have its warmest Jan low temp on record. Low temp this month sitting at 23, and does not look likely to go lower until right around Feb 1. Previous record is 22 (2002, 2 days that month) and before that 18 in 1932 and 15 in 1953.

I for one have not minded the torch relative to normal since after Xmas , or to be more specific the complete lack of very cold air that has followed on the backside of mostly rainers. That has made things at least comfortable to be outside and when we scored snow in Nashua it was generally a nice pasting at 30-33

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Where are biggest January temp departures in the east , anyone have some numbers . I think it’s time to sort of celebrate the torch (ok maybe celebrate is a strong word) but at least gain perspective on any historical significance of what is going on so far this year 

I recall going up to N Conway in March of maybe 2012 or something when they had a string of days in upper 70’s and man ..I always root for snow but if it’s not gonna snow I’ll take mild and sunny over anything else that isn’t frozen 

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