Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well... It didn't get any worse for Chicagoland on that run.

Am I wrong in thinking that as most models now depict this event it's basically a 3-5 hour window of snow and wind as the arctic front blows in? I'm not seeing how we do much better than 2" or 3" at this point without a deformation band to pivot across the area.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Am I wrong in thinking that as most models now depict this event it's basically a 3-5 hour window of snow and wind as the arctic front blows in? I'm not seeing how we do much better than 2" or 3" at this point without a deformation band to pivot across the area.

Glorified FROPA. Stack a snow squall warning on this turd and call it a day. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ILX latest on it. Calling 1-3" conservative for now. 

 

.UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

 

The main change this morning is an earlier peak in wintry precip seen in the latest model guidance, which is now forwarded about 6 hours. In other words, the most robust snowfall rates appear to come Thursday afternoon and extend through the Thursday evening commute. Snowfall rates may approach 1"/hr for a brief time, and with winds whipping at 35-45 mph, visibility will significantly deteriorate. Blizzard-like conditions will make travel extremely difficult or impossible Thursday evening. Then, as snow begins to taper Friday morning, blowing and drifting snow has the potential to prolong travel impacts into Saturday morning. At this time, our posture hasn`t changed much on the strong winds and extreme cold. We remain conservative on snowfall amounts with 1-3" inches likely (90% confidence) across the Winter Storm Watch area. The potential for 6" + is still lurking under any sort of mesoscale banding, but realistically, we need another 12-24 hours before we try to pinpoint where that heavier axis will develop. This is when some of the hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF model) will come available for us to better resolve mesoscale banding.

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...