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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Just for fun…  

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Gather 'round weenies. I don't do this often, but it’s story time with Cousin Donnie.  I knew Winter way back when I was a kid. Winter was kind. Winter always seemed to go above and beyond. Winte

Kitz Craver
Kitz Craver

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope the winds fails tragically, as it usually does. I have no use for power disruptions or property damage.

 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks widespread to me. At least as of now.

 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah this one is gonna be extreme and wild for everyone. This setup looks insane for screaming winds and screams of people under trees 

I am not sure who wants and roots for power outage in the winter, but no thanks on my end. Rooting for wind damage, is rooting for power disruptions.  Wind doesn't discriminate, and only pick just a few random trees / limbs to knock down without power lines getting in on the destruction. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

 

 

I am not sure who wants and roots for power outage in the winter, but no thanks on my end. Rooting for wind damage, is rooting for power disruptions.  Wind doesn't discriminate, and only pick just a few random trees / limbs to knock down without power lines getting in on the destruction. 

Yea, I can do without power disruptions 3 days before Xmas.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

 

 

I am not sure who wants and roots for power outage in the winter, but no thanks on my end. Rooting for wind damage, is rooting for power disruptions.  Wind doesn't discriminate, and only pick just a few random trees / limbs to knock down without power lines getting in on the destruction. 

Agree....plus tree removal cost have gone up significantly

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's time for me to delete all the pics of the models from last week on my phone when they showed the east coast getting a huge snowstorm.

If you look at the 06Z GFS and 00Z Euro there really is not even any spot in the Midwest or Lakes which sees epic snows, the GFS simply occludes too quickly and the Euro is just a tad too progressive and then also semi occludes...it may ultimately be somewhere like STL or Peoria who sees the biggest amounts, Indy may snow forever once they get rid of the rain or mix but it may not be heavy by that point

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This appears more historic at 500 mb than the surface ... either that, or the models are having a tough time working out the sfc response to all that obscene mechanical power going on aloft.

I compared the Cleveland Super Bomb with this one, as modeled. The 'Bomb was down to 953 just before it left the U.S. for southern Ontario.  This one, blending the operational version ( which for all intents and purposes are in agreement with one another) it appears 978, roughly as much as 25 mb shallower.

Here's the difference.  The sfc +PP are impressive over far NW Plains as modeled, with a node there near 1050 mb! And it is spatially large and sprawling ... there's arming to a second node that's 1040 N of Maine.  So the ambient or environmental base state is above normal pressure.  That means at a 980 mb low is deeper than we may think relative to that elevated state.  The 'Bomb did not drill to hell and back amid that same ambient sfc pressure. In fact, the 12z sfc chart on January 26, 1978 featured a modest 1032 mb high node, situated quite far away west of James Bay.  

Feb 1978 did that, with a well dug down to 974 mb at max depth, against a much higher ambient pressure domain... arm reaching across Ontario.  Not that either 980 or 974 are shallow lows, either..  But the actual situation gradient is vastly more important in assessing aspects such as wind - in particular. 

As an old school quick metric, 1mb ~= 1kt, such that d(p) ~= max wind.    In the case of the Cleveland Super Bomb, 1032 -953 ( and one could argue that since the 1032 node was so far away that it may be a bit of a stretch to use that as the high end) = 79 kts.  In the case of February 1978, this works out to 76kts.  Close enough to what actually was reported in max gusts in either storm of lore to satisfy the approximate metric of 1mb to 1kt.

As modeled/said mean above, this event looks like ~ 1050 mb against 975-ish.   So 75kts. 

That's not here, though. The low level PGF is what it is in our sector of the cyclone.  Plus, with that +PP situation N-NE of New England, we may end up elevating some of the wind over a boundary that proves a little more retarded ...hard to say.   I would be worried about ORD-IND and Michigan, as the low really bottoms out in that vicinity, and there's not a lot of wind restoring mass into that core, prior to the low then moving away...  That's setting up a very exceptional allobaric circumstance... It's like an eye-wall look there --> explosive isallobaric wind potential.  I lived in southern lower Michigan for a little over a decade many ...many moons ago.  I have seen some of these backside wind bombs take place, where the low slips past and then there is 60 mph wind gusts that rose out of no where.  This looks like an opportunity for something like that.  It's different than that 2005, December "sting jet" ... it's more purely a wind acceleration do to restoring extreme short range d(p).

But we can have drama here ...unrelated to that type of phenom.  There's likely to be a hefty WCB jet feeding this beast... That leading edge of the cold air/front is outpacing enough to flip some decent QPF to a W -E flash transition ... but that also means that there's going to be some pretty chaotic instability/omega trying to move parcels vertically through those elevated wind wind layers.  You know...momentum transfer...  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This appears more historic at 500 mb than the surface ... either that, or the models are having a tough time working out the sfc response to all that obscene mechanical power going on aloft.

I compared the Cleveland Super Bomb with this one, as modeled. The 'Bomb was down to 953 just before it left the U.S. for southern Ontario.  This one, blending the operational version ( which for all intents and purposes are in agreement with one another) it appears 978, roughly as much as 25 mb shallower.

Here's the difference.  The sfc +PP are impressive over far NW Plains as modeled, with a node there near 1050 mb! And it is spatially large and sprawling ... there's arming to a second node that's 1040 N of Maine.  So the ambient or environmental base state is above normal pressure.  That means at a 980 mb low is deeper than we may think relative to that elevated state.  The 'Bomb did not drill to hell and back amid that same ambient sfc pressure. In fact, the 12z sfc chart on January 26, 1978 featured a modest 1032 mb high node, situated quite far away west of James Bay.  

Feb 1978 did that, with a well dug down to 974 mb at max depth, against a much higher ambient pressure domain... arm reaching across Ontario.  Not that either 980 or 974 are shallow lows, either..  But the actual situation gradient is vastly more important in assessing aspects such as wind - in particular. 

As an old school quick metric, 1mb ~= 1kt, such that d(p) ~= max wind.    In the case of the Cleveland Super Bomb, 1032 -953 ( and one could argue that since the 1032 node was so far away that it may be a bit of a stretch to use that as the high end) = 79 kts.  In the case of February 1978, this works out to 76kts.  Close enough to what actually was reported in max gusts in either storm of lore to satisfy the approximate metric of 1mb to 1kt.

As modeled/said mean above, this event looks like ~ 1050 mb against 975-ish.   So 75kts. 

That's not here, though. The low level PGF is what it is in our sector of the cyclone.  Plus, with that +PP situation N-NE of New England, we may end up elevating some of the wind over a boundary that proves a little more retarded ...hard to say.   I would be worried about ORD-IND and Michigan, as the low really bottoms out in that vicinity, and there's not a lot of wind restoring mass into that core, prior to the low then moving away...  That's setting up a very exceptional allobaric circumstance... It's like an eye-wall look there --> explosive isallobaric wind potential.  I lived in southern lower Michigan for a little over a decade many ...many moons ago.  I have seen some of these backside wind bombs take place, where the low slips past and then there is 60 mph wind gusts that rose out of no where.  This looks like an opportunity for something like that.  It's different than that 2005, December "sting jet" ... it's more purely a wind acceleration do to restoring extreme short range d(p).

But we can have drama here ...unrelated to that type of phenom.  There's likely to be a hefty WCB jet feeding this beast... That leading edge of the cold air/front is outpacing enough to flip some decent QPF to a W -E flash transition ... but that also means that there's going to be some pretty chaotic instability/omega trying to move parcels vertically through those elevated wind wind layers.  You know...momentum transfer...  

Great post. I think models are a little lost with snow qpf in that massive sprawling comma head. What a blizzard! Thats going to look impressive on visible Sat.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you look at the 06Z GFS and 00Z Euro there really is not even any spot in the Midwest or Lakes which sees epic snows, the GFS simply occludes too quickly and the Euro is just a tad too progressive and then also semi occludes...it may ultimately be somewhere like STL or Peoria who sees the biggest amounts, Indy may snow forever once they get rid of the rain or mix but it may not be heavy by that point

I noticed this too…modeling illustrating much more of a deep low pressure potential wind bomb scenario for a lot of places, more so than a snow event as the main headline.

Just the way it looks now of course… I was saying before it almost appears like the models are having some difficulty resolving a surface response to all that incredible mechanical power going on aloft. I’m not sure if there may be some flop over with handling the QPF types too. Maybe…

But I’m also noticing that there’s a lack of cold air associated with the storm at the core? which is interesting ..so it’s almost like the deeper pressure is not really associated with the colder air so it’s not really crossing up those critical jet fields that you get where are big snow events … an interesting kind of genetics for this particular storm. 

So if a more cohesive surface center is chosen in future guidance I’m wondering if we might see some of this get a little bit more structured. On the flip side …in lacking some of that cold air that’s why we’re seeing the low pressure at the surface wrap all the way to Chicago while  the ML’s over Ohio - that’s what we call ‘core wrapping’ or we used to back in the weather lab days. Storms that are more driven aloft will tend to look this way. So there are kind of multiple things going on here… It doesn’t have enough cold air in the low levels associated over where it has a surplus of mechanics going on aloft. There’s a disconnect there a little bit

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you look at the 06Z GFS and 00Z Euro there really is not even any spot in the Midwest or Lakes which sees epic snows, the GFS simply occludes too quickly and the Euro is just a tad too progressive and then also semi occludes...it may ultimately be somewhere like STL or Peoria who sees the biggest amounts, Indy may snow forever once they get rid of the rain or mix but it may not be heavy by that point

I suspect the feature moving up the east coast is doing midwestern snow lovers no favors.

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