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November Banter 2022


George BM
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Forecast Discussion

Wednesday, November 23, 2022 11:58AM EST

NWSGeorgeBMHeadquarters

 

A very strong and compact mid/upper level-low will continue to move ENE-wards into our region during the afternoon and into the evening. Currently ahead of it much of the area is experiencing light drizzle. Temperatures have slowly climbed to around 40F or so across the immediate Greater Washington Metropolitan region with low/mid 40s in southern and eastern MD and mid/upper 30s in far north and western regions. The Greater Metropolitan region should peak in the lower 40s over the next few hours. Afterwards, by early/mid afternoon (18z-20z) heights will fall very dramatically (500mb height falls: 12-15 dam/ 6hrs) as the compact system moves in. This will create very strong lift through a deep-layer of the atmosphere resulting in two significant things taking place.

1.      Heavy precipitation will develop leading to dynamic cooling of the column allowing a quick changeover from rain to snow. With some elevated instability some elevated thunderstorms may develop, especially near the leading edge of this area of strong lift. Some small hail may even be possible with the most intense storms. But, more importantly, the snowfall rates will be very heavy. Although the system should be in and out within 6 hours there could be 1.5”+ of liquid equivalent precip within that time, much of it falling as snow. Therefore, snowfall rates could be in excess of 3”/hr. Current snow totals look to be in the 8-14”+ range. The snow will be high in moisture content (~8-10:1 ratios) leading to the potential of power outages.

2.      In response to this strong mid/upper level system a surface low will rapidly strengthen over the southern Chesapeake Bay and move NE-wards across the Delmarva and into the western Atlantic through the evening as it continues to deepen. This will result in winds increasing throughout the region. Northerly wind gusts as high as 35 mph will be possible.

With the very heavy snowfall rates coupled with the gusty winds, visibility will fall to below a quarter mile. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the region. Winds won’t be quite strong enough for Blizzard Warning issuances. Nonetheless, it will certainly seem blizzard-like throughout the late afternoon/evening. Overall, this will be a quick hitting and high impact event with snow departing the region by 3z tonight.

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I’m putting up our Christmas decorations (outside and inside) the weekend before Thanksgiving.  Since we are hosting Thanksgiving in Deep Creek, would rather get it done before Thanksgiving, than after.  We did it the same way last year since we traveled to Long Island for Thanksgiving.  Holding off on music until then.

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Caps goaltending is much improved this year.

Unfortunately the rest of the team is a year older and/ or injured currently.

Not enough Fire power / skill to consistently score.

Hurts missing Wilson,Oshie,Backstrom, Carlson,Brown

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Caps goaltending is much improved this year.

Unfortunately the rest of the team is a year older and/ or injured currently.

Not enough Fire power / skill to consistently score.

Hurts missing Wilson,Oshie,Backstrom, Carlson,Brown

Our injuries right now are crazy. If we had even a few of them back now, I’d feel better. But yeah, our age isn’t helping us. 
 

our goaltending is night and day from last year though!

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9 hours ago, nj2va said:

Our injuries right now are crazy. If we had even a few of them back now, I’d feel better. But yeah, our age isn’t helping us. 
 

our goaltending is night and day from last year though!

I love Charlie.  Very confident with him in the net.  But we are a bit of a slog on the offensive side.   I almost hope they split the two goalies a bit ala Al Jensen and Pat Riggin. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I love Charlie.  Very confident with him in the net.  But we are a bit of a slog on the offensive side.   I almost hope they split the two goalies a bit ala Al Jensen and Pat Riggin. 

Chuckie Sideburns was a folk hero in St. Louis last season. Looked good when he had to come in for a few games last year.

Really hope Oshie gets better for the Caps too. 

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10 hours ago, nj2va said:

I’m putting up our Christmas decorations (outside and inside) the weekend before Thanksgiving.  Since we are hosting Thanksgiving in Deep Creek, would rather get it done before Thanksgiving, than after.  We did it the same way last year since we traveled to Long Island for Thanksgiving.  Holding off on music until then.

We're having a big get together for the US-England World Cup match on Black Friday, so putting up the lights the day before Thanksgiving might not be a terrible idea!

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I agree. He needs to go.

I just hope he sells the team completely and doesn't sale 49% so he's still in control.

He had 3 other minority owners that owned I believe about 40 % of the team. They sold out and now he owns 100%. Earlier reporting said it was unclear if he was actually completely selling the team or selling a minority stake.

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10 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Is bunting banned in MLB these days? I'm a Phillies fan when local teams stink and couldn't believe they didn't tell the #9 hitter to bunt with 1st and 3rd, one out. The game was lost on the difference in fielding (Houston made their plays, Philly had some bobbles and errors).

No but bunting is pretty much old baseball. They worry about launch angle and home runs now. Small ball is gone. I hate the shift and love that mlb is doing away with it but ffs when Chris Davis was up with nobody out and the third baseman is playing shallow right field any pro player should have been able to bunt for a base hit down the line. Home runs are overtly coveted now. I love bunting, hit and runs, small baseball and great defense will win over the launch angle saber metric stuff all day In my opinion.

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14 hours ago, 5-4-3DP said:

No but bunting is pretty much old baseball. They worry about launch angle and home runs now. Small ball is gone. I hate the shift and love that mlb is doing away with it but ffs when Chris Davis was up with nobody out and the third baseman is playing shallow right field any pro player should have been able to bunt for a base hit down the line. Home runs are overtly coveted now. I love bunting, hit and runs, small baseball and great defense will win over the launch angle saber metric stuff all day In my opinion.

I think the Cleveland Guardians (my home town team!) is one of the only teams that actually plays mostly small-ball these days.  They don't have a lot of HR power, so this is kind of by design.  This season they were quite good at getting runners on base and moving them around, not relying on the home run for everything.  Even though they didn't win the ALDS vs. the Yankees, you could see how effectively they used that in that series, and they certainly gave the Yanks a scare!

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not snow, but puking leaves here now. Accumulating rapidly, despite my removal efforts.

Heavy Leaf Warning for areas east of the Chesapeake Bay

Leaf rates of 250-300/hr 

Total Accumulation: 1000-2000 leaves plus 2 Aleve

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48 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

What's the wind criteria for a leaf blizzard warning? :lol:

The spruce forest to our west funnels the winds down to the ground much like what happens in cities.  The result is we wind up with legit "leafnadoes" or "leaf devils" spinning through the pasture.  The winds today are strong enough but are from the wrong direction.  They are doing a nice job of getting the leaves off the stubborn pin oaks, however.

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