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November Banter 2022


George BM
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10 hours ago, Jebman said:

It's gonna be! Mid Atlantic is gonna get absolutely demolished by snow and frigid cold.

To your point, if this stretch actually is the pattern for winter, it’s gonna be wild everywhere. Fingers crossed.

Right now at 5am CT it’s 21F here in southeast Missouri. The next forecasted high at 50F or above is… Nov. 23.

It never got above freezing yesterday!

Hearty people here, many farmers, so no one complained, local festival went on as planned.. but they were all shocked too. Hasn’t been an early snow like this in 15 years.

And we might get another inch or two tomorrow night!

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13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How’s everyone doing this fall?

We have been nice and warm down here, I have been enjoying my Early Girl tomatoes fresh right off the vine. We got off real easy last night, it was supposed to hit 28 degrees and freeze everything. We got off with 37 and my tomatoes are in perfect shape. Its been chilly with 50s in the daytime, I want my 80s/68 dewpoints back, but at least we dodged the frost.

I love how I am living so far south, that in December everyone is wading azz deep in wind driven snow, all while I relax next to our blue pool in a nice t-shirt in 70s weather.

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IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST----- Beware of the impending cold! Storm tracks are also setting up for massive snows in the mid atlantic in DJFM.

Cosgrove says it all, even mentions 13-14!!!

 

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I have been very candid with my ideas about how the later fall and the winter months will turn out. This is not a typical La Nina episode, and in fact it is sharing some similarity to the previous two years in that mild/warm spells may occur in the U.S., but those never seem to last. In fact, you can easily see some similarities to November/December periods in 1983, 1993, 1995 and 2013. There is a presence of cAk vortices at 500MB into southern Canada; expansion/stretching/splitting of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex; and strong southern branch influences even in the presence of -ENSO signatures.

 

A break toward milder air in much of the lower 48 states seems probable in the last days of November, and possibly in the first week of December. But gaze at those 10MB maps. A huge stratospheric cold gyre drifts from northern Russia into Arctic Canada. There is usually a reaction time on a surface imprint or reflection in temperatures of anywhere from two to four weeks. The steering level, 500MB level will assume some resemblance to the cold core aloft. I notice that a -AO/-NAO signal appears in about 15 days; if so, the bitter cold, far worse than what is seen now, will regroup and press toward the lower 48 states.

 

The southern branch disturbances that I have discussed are also important. The current track scenarios are roughly California/Texas/Georgia/Massachusetts/Nova Scotia. But with increased presence of Arctic cold, and deeper full-latitude troughs, the cyclone pathways may sag further south. If so, the snowpack and freeze lines could drop down. The period between December 7 and 21 will prove critical to how the rest of the winter turns out. That would be a match for the stratospheric actions, the one place where the numerical models have been consistent on synoptic evolution. Because if the 10MB, 500MB and boundary layer outcomes keep repeating, the same sequence of weather events will re-occur in January and February.

 

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Remember folks, remember that the Jebman warned you first about this upcoming winter in the mid atlantic! It is setting up, and you folks are LONG OVERDUE for a frigid snowy winter! You are going to be on a heater, and Bob Chill is going to need a truly Brobdingnagian Face with what is going to be developing in the models! Stock up on whatever it is that you use to stay up.

You're gonna need it.

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

By the way, everyone...

US-Wales in our World Cup opener next Monday at 2:00 pm on Fox and FS1 (and Peacock and other streaming services)!

Is that taped?  Seems awfully late for a game to be played live. 

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Hey Wx Fam, been a busy boy since last post @Jiwill be happy to know I won't be leaving the MA sub as the wife and I bought 25 acres on the east side of Smith Mtn in Sandy Level, VA back in July. Tract of untouched forest. Last logging run was back in the 1970s. Got the RV setup with generator/solar/outhouse/fresh water. Lots of work ahead building the house. I'm milling all the beams myself.

 

Working on getting out of Rockville plan now. That's a big job too. I have no thoughts on winter except I would prefer this one to be warm so that means break out the shovels and parkas. I'm not trying to avoid amwx. I just rarely spend time on the internet nowadays except for DIY videos lol

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey Wx Fam, been a busy boy since last post @Jiwill be happy to know I won't be leaving the MA sub as the wife and I bought 25 acres on the east side of Smith Mtn in Sandy Level, VA back in July. Tract of untouched forest. Last logging run was back in the 1970s. Got the RV setup with generator/solar/outhouse/fresh water. Lots of work ahead building the house. I'm milling all the beams myself.

 

Working on getting out of Rockville plan now. That's a big job too. I have no thoughts on winter except I would prefer this one to be warm so that means break out the shovels and parkas. I'm not trying to avoid amwx. I just rarely spend time on the internet nowadays except for DIY videos lol

So will you do your monthly grocery shop in Danville or Martinsville?

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57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey Wx Fam, been a busy boy since last post @Jiwill be happy to know I won't be leaving the MA sub as the wife and I bought 25 acres on the east side of Smith Mtn in Sandy Level, VA back in July. Tract of untouched forest. Last logging run was back in the 1970s. Got the RV setup with generator/solar/outhouse/fresh water. Lots of work ahead building the house. I'm milling all the beams myself.

 

Working on getting out of Rockville plan now. That's a big job too. I have no thoughts on winter except I would prefer this one to be warm so that means break out the shovels and parkas. I'm not trying to avoid amwx. I just rarely spend time on the internet nowadays except for DIY videos lol

So the WDI will be high this year lol

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