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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking ahead, I wonder if we see things shift late month to a bit more SE ridging into early December before another favorable shift maybe after 12/10?   We may see tropical forcing get more established maritime continent again before trying to tickle east. 

Yes, I think early December backs off a bit. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You on board yet.? Last week you were saying just not record highs change. We flip hard.

I'm getting there, ha.  The last several cycles of the GFS have been pretty consistent in that trough moving in at day 7 (next Sunday) not being just a transient in/out.

I want to keep seeing that not being modeled as a 72-hour shot followed by moderating again.  For the ski areas the key will be sustaining that cold through that following week.  The trough seems fairly high-confidence now... but if 850s can stay below 0C for that entire week that's a bit difference from just cold then lift out.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm getting there, ha.  The last several cycles of the GFS have been pretty consistent in that trough moving in at day 7 (next Sunday) not being just a transient in/out.

I want to keep seeing that not being modeled as a 72-hour shot followed by moderating again.  For the ski areas the key will be sustaining that cold through that following week.  The trough seems fairly high-confidence now... but if 850s can stay below 0C for that entire week that's a bit difference from just cold then lift out.

 

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