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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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Grab some inch ?

12z global and ensemble guidance trended a bit higher with snow
amounts. Greatest risk for 6 inches of snow still confined to
northern New Eng but confidence is increasing in 1-4 inches
accumulation interior northern and western MA, with best chance of 3
or 4 inches in the Berkshires. Probably not more than a slushy
coating to an inch along the I-495 to I-90 and I-84 corridor
before getting washed away with the change to rain. Still 60-72h
from the event so changes are still possible and further
adjustments may be needed.

 

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30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab some inch ?

12z global and ensemble guidance trended a bit higher with snow
amounts. Greatest risk for 6 inches of snow still confined to
northern New Eng but confidence is increasing in 1-4 inches
accumulation interior northern and western MA, with best chance of 3
or 4 inches in the Berkshires. Probably not more than a slushy
coating to an inch along the I-495 to I-90 and I-84 corridor
before getting washed away with the change to rain. Still 60-72h
from the event so changes are still possible and further
adjustments may be needed.

 

1 to 4 here  we take!!! surprised no thread yet

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Welcome to N ORH county winter ineedsnow.   
 

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 29. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Wednesday
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 9am. High near 40. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Welcome to N ORH county winter ineedsnow.   
 

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 29. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Wednesday
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 9am. High near 40. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I can't wait!!! :snowing: 

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Haven't heard much reference to the following but the models are likely not handling the nature of ageo/potential in this Wednesday ordeal.

You have a modest ...albeit still positive PP drapped across C-NNE, whilst a low approaches from the SW and ultimately cuts under PVD...  the interior 'tucks' as a slam dunk. The question is...what kind of air mass restores back south and does it have low enough DPs...  

A sidecar chance of icing has been with this thing since it first became plausible, all along... I still haven't seen any guidance metrics that dissuade me from being somewhat suspicious about a straight rain ptype, if temps are near freezing in southern VT/NH.

Not talking a major qpfer here... In fact, this is a fast moving event ultimately with at best moderate fall rates for time... But it's really kind of an ideal system for scrimmage practice.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven't heard much reference to the following but the models are likely not handling the nature of ageo/potential in this Wednesday ordeal.

You have a modest ...albeit still positive PP drapped across C-NNE, whilst a low approaches from the SW and ultimately cuts under PVD...  the interior 'tucks' as a slam dunk. The question is...what kind of air mass restores back south and does it have low enough DPs...  

A sidecar chance of icing has been with this thing since it first became plausible, all along... I still haven't seen any guidance metrics that dissuade me from being somewhat suspicious about a straight rain ptype, if temps are near freezing in southern VT/NH.

Not talking a major qpfer here... In fact, this is a fast moving event ultimately with at best moderate fall rates for time... But it's really kind of an ideal system for scrimmage practice.

There will be a narrow icestorm zone in Berks to S VT

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55 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just left mount Washington resort . I see via live cams it’s just starting to flip there @1600’ and based on weekly temps coming up ...winter is beginning there now 

Drive safe, I just looked out my window and noticed it is snowing. No idea when it flipped

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