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November 2022


Stormlover74
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A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo.  You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo.  Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro.

COD NEXRAD: BUF

 

 

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is absolutely loaded

everything is there for a significant storm: strong +PNA ridge, anticyclonic wave breaking in Canada forced by the -NAO, anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave

can't really look any better a week out, let's see what happens

1669334400-3vzZF94r5gY.png

We need this a month from now. Seems like a wasted pattern for November. Kind of like blocking setting up in April. Ugh

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5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo.  You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo.  Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro.

COD NEXRAD: BUF

 

 

I’m riddled with jealousy 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice storm signal next week on the models.

The long range model forecasts show no signs of the blocking breaking down. Even if the storm next week doesn’t pan out, based on what the models are showing a -nao December looks likely. Im convinced we have a big December incoming based on this.

673BAA89-C713-4E17-839A-78D1CA97130B.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Getting into late November at least...the worst is when it sets up first week and then collapses around 11/30 and we get a torch Dec

That's true, feels like we sped towards Thanksgiving. We just have to hope that in an era of "stuck" patterns that this potentially favorable pattern becomes more than transient and lasts deep into December because with us being in Nina still, December might be our best shot at something significant.

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo.  You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo.  Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro.

COD NEXRAD: BUF

 

 

Check out the feature spinning into the northern part of lower Michigan…

C229EC9E-7D68-4B66-9C5A-D625035B9FCE.gif

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Generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and blustery. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Afterward, the season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are again possible during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.118 today.

On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.755 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.752 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

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Great link to the Lake Effect snow up in Buffalo.  This is a link to the traffic cams along I-190 in the city.  You can see some areas that are experiencing whiteouts along the highway while other areas are up to one mile with the band in the distance.

https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI190

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7 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's more about your reputation and the way you framed your post: It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again.  

Would it kill you to actually say there is at least a shot next week?!

Anyway, someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this is the first real trackable period in November since 2018 with that storm that overperformed and where NYC was unprepared for snow removal.

To be fair to Snowman he’s right, the La Niña is quite powerful and will likely be one of our main pattern drivers this winter. However, this doesn’t mean what he likes to imply. The storm track is shifted further north with Nina’s, which when combined with North Atlantic blocking eliminating the risk of cutters leads to a lot of Miller B nor’easters. In a moderate to strong nino with a big -NAO there is a much higher risk of suppression with congrats DC and Philly. That is not a concern, as it is more likely that an asteroid strikes my house and kills me tomorrow than it is for us to experience El Niño conditions this winter.

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

To be fair to Snowman he’s right, the La Niña is quite powerful and will likely be one of our main pattern drivers this winter. However, this doesn’t mean what he likes to imply. The storm track is shifted further north with Nina’s, which when combined with North Atlantic blocking eliminating the risk of cutters leads to a lot of Miller B nor’easters. In a moderate to strong nino with a big -NAO there is a much higher risk of suppression with congrats DC and Philly. That is not a concern, as it is more likely that an asteroid strikes my house and kills me tomorrow than it is for us to experience El Niño conditions this winter.

We've had quite a few La Ninas with average to above average snowfall totals.

 

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13 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Too early. The warm up in December will fuck us for the start of winter

 

Snowing and absolutely winter-like in Detroit

Depends on what you mean for the start of winter.  For me winter starts on December 21st.  We could easily get an end of November snowstorm and then it thaws for a couple of weeks in December and then we get cold again in the latter part of December.

 

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