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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

He’s gone! We can get 3 great younger players for that price anyways.

 

I can’t find the link to your winter outlook? 

He’s not gone lol. They’ve already insinuated part of the package is making him captain, He’ s the modern day Jeter, Take less money but become captain and still become highest paid player in MLB. Non mlb fans dont get it 

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we upgrade GFS on 11/29. I got this from a former coworker. One thing to note:

 

"The GFS overestimates the accumulated snow depth for mixed precipitation
events with marginal temperatures and underpredicts for events with very
cold temperatures.  The undesired snow depth predictions are associated
with GFDL microphysics and the improper density used in the land surface
model for different frozen precipitation types.  In this upgrade, the land
surface model is addressed first by providing proper density to various
frozen hydrometeors."

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

Neat!  I found this to be notable as well:

"The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes."

One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites.  Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"...

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

How can it morph into a more wintry look? Is that what you're saying?

Devils advocate is doing the opposite of what most people tend to hope for or see  , I think after we all wait 9 months for winter To appear after we endure boring summer /fall weather ..it’s hard to not be A bit biased to see what we want 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Devils advocate is doing the opposite of what most people tend to hope for or see  , I think after we all wait 9 months for winter To appear after we endure boring summer /fall weather ..it’s hard to not be A bit biased to see what we want 

LOL, I know...your wording didn't jive with me. Anyways, I think Will covered it. If that ridge in the Pacific gets the Kid 'N Play chopped off haircut, we may be in trouble.

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8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Neat!  I found this to be notable as well:

"The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes."

One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites.  Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"...

It might… but probably wouldn’t offer the bigger corrections we used to sort of pretend we werent hoping to see. Ha

 I think they’re at a point with the technology/assimilation techniques where that kind of correction is a thing of the past.

Something I’ve been monitoring since - really the last big correction that was the Boxing Day storm - i’m not seeing the correction tendencies that we used to re systems <—84 to 120 hour frames since 2010 and the new GFS version regularity 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Devils advocate is doing the opposite of what most people tend to hope for or see  , I think after we all wait 9 months for winter To appear after we endure boring summer /fall weather ..it’s hard to not be A bit biased to see what we want 

Devil's advocate is easy to play 5-6 weeks out too because model guidance isn't very skilled at that range.....almost anything can happen. There could be a massive pig over AK that the models don't see right now.

But all else equal we'd rather not have the weeklies show it even if they aren't very skilled 5 weeks out. At least the more skilled ensembles at 2 weeks out show no sign of a terrible N PAC pattern which I think is the first thing you'd want to eliminate if you are trying to avoid a disaster (a la Dec 2011, 2015, etc)

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Well who knows what happens in latter November. 

I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year  

Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather  without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well who knows what happens in latter November. 

I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year  

Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather  without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding. 

Next two weeks will be pretty mild overall for sure. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Devil's advocate is easy to play 5-6 weeks out too because model guidance isn't very skilled at that range.....almost anything can happen. There could be a massive pig over AK that the models don't see right now.

But all else equal we'd rather not have the weeklies show it even if they aren't very skilled 5 weeks out. At least the more skilled ensembles at 2 weeks out show no sign of a terrible N PAC pattern which I think is the first thing you'd want to eliminate if you are trying to avoid a disaster (a la Dec 2011, 2015, etc)

The 0z 840 HR GEFS looks a lot better than the CFS weeklies in the mid-to-late November time frame.  The CFS looked a lot better last week.  (Going by what's available on Tropical Tidbits).  Interesting to see the differences between the two...

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s not gone lol. They’ve already insinuated part of the package is making him captain, He’ s the modern day Jeter, Take less money but become captain and still become highest paid player in MLB. Non mlb fans dont get it 

The upcoming warm weather pattern is already getting to you...

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It looks like there are some wheels in motion to lead to a pattern change later on in November... mainly the development of an +EAMT, a flip to +AAM, and hints of Scandinavian ridging.

First off, the +EAMT:

eamt.thumb.gif.8d005f185b04b2b1a80509794c08db2a.gif

There is pretty good model agreement on anomalously strong HP moving over Mongolia and the rest of east Asia, which helps lead to a +EAMT. +EAMT events often lead to an extension of the Pacific jet and subsequent poleward ridging around Alaska. This is bolstered by the shift to +AAM in the tropics, which often builds poleward and encourages blocking a few weeks down the line...

aam.thumb.png.72a31b2845f617240b3c3758295e1d6a.png

Scandinavian ridging is also beginning to show up on both the GEFS and EPS in the extended range. This can both help to disrupt the SPV, which is a possibility, but this shouldn't impact the pattern too much unless it couples with the troposphere. Also, notice the beginnings of an Aleutian low beginning to form - this is a result of the Pacific jet extension after the +EAMT begins to form.

scandi.thumb.gif.fee4c0334d0a988b7d1c16fd0c0fe370.gif

However, what's more important is that ridging in this area tends to retrograde towards Greenland like so:

retrograde.PNG.fc82a26e3c6730251cd67cb347f1b7b6.PNGhttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/7/jcli-d-19-0447.1.xml

So, although the pattern to open the month will be very warm and quiet (enjoy the great weather!), I expect a flip to colder and more active weather around Thanksgiving once all of these pattern drivers really take shape, mainly with the Pacific jet extension around two weeks from now. The Scandinavian ridging often takes longer to retrograde. We want to see these signals move forward in time.

The analogs that some have proposed for this winter also featured blocking early on (2000-01, 2020-21, 2010-11), so it's nice to see some pattern drivers support it! We shall see.

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Well who knows what happens in latter November. 
I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year  
Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather  without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding. 
Why does it feel like we'll be having the same discussion in Dec?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, I know...your wording didn't jive with me. Anyways, I think Will covered it. If that ridge in the Pacific gets the Kid 'N Play chopped off haircut, we may be in trouble.

Ya his wording was F’d up…I couldn’t  understand it either what he was trying to say. It wasn’t expressed clearly at all.  

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25 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I got it, he just wanted to know what we don't want to see.

Ya, some got it. You and Will(Scott and I were like what?) were good decoders, but it wasn’t worded well.
 

I actually thought he was trying to say, how could this upcoming warm spell, go wrong  and turn cold.   But it’s all good. 

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that’s been over(growing season) here for a couple weeks at least. 

I think the only places in NE still not growing are Dendy area, Dryslot area.. and much of Maine outside of Portland area, Freaks area.. and Spanks in Southbury who lives below sea level with sand radiation 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow you aren't joking about not getting cold at night.  That's crazy.

31F here and 30/27 at MVL already tonight.  Going to be a cold one.

I don’t foresee freeze here until post Tgiving . Nov is furnaced and warm Nov’s prove  hideous for ensuing winters. No matter how much “research “ Ray does. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t foresee freeze here until post Tgiving . Nov is furnaced and warm Nov’s prove  hideous for ensuing winters. No matter how much “research “ Ray does. 

It looks quite mild into mid-month, for sure.  Going to be a slow start to the ski season but plenty of time before Thanksgiving for things to change by the second half of the month being 2+ weeks away.  It won't happen fast but hopefully after two weeks we can see distinct signs of an upcoming change.

 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It looks quite mild into mid-month, for sure.  Going to be a slow start to the ski season but plenty of time before Thanksgiving for things to change by the second half of the month being 2+ weeks away.  It won't happen fast but hopefully after two weeks we can see distinct signs of an upcoming change.

 

Kevins do the reverse psychology thing again, sometimes it works.

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It does make me think we were pretty "lucky" (?) I guess climatologically to pull off that sneaky 1-2" on the mountain back on October 8th I think it was.  That got the true first accumulation on the books, with good flakes into the base area... but without that, Mansfield might have been on a more noteworthy streak deep into November looking for it's first whitening.  Kind of funny it can go a month+ without seeing flakes fly again after the first event rolls through.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

34 at MWN. Fake as Fuck.

Lol same as here on the coast, 33.6F.

---

Growing season is a relative term for us. 

We picked 40 lbs of unripened tomatoes before the first frost on 10/9. Of that about 10 lbs are left to ripen or process. 

Picked a pint of raspberries yesterday from  cold hearty, late season variety plants.

Lettuce and spinach ready to harvest in the cold tunnel, and will reseed after for a harvest in March or April.

Plus carrots to pull in late Novie, to be replaced with garlic bulbs for next year. 

This all on 1/4" acre in suburbia with ample room for accurate snow measurement. 

:weenie:

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