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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Head faked this morning too, 31.1°F

33.1F. coldest yet. Looks like any hard frost or freeze will be quite late this year. Called the marina earlier in the week and they still haven't winterized boat and it's going into the 20s tonight. Probably 29-30F right at the water which is where the boat is sitting. It'll be ok,  but c'mon man get it done already

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The EPS were starting to raise the -PNA from the cellar at the end of the run. Also that Scandi ridging and the -EPO is keeping the PV on our side. That will refrigerate Canada and one would think we'll see successive colder shots into the CONUS later November into December with that look.

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I almost hit two of those dummies this morning going to the gym. 

Yup, Had 5 deer cross in front of me monday night around 6:30, Stopped and let them go and i said i'm going to wait a few more seconds and sure enough, Another ones comes across so i would have hit that one if i would have just taken off after the 5.

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50 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

33.1F. coldest yet. Looks like any hard frost or freeze will be quite late this year. Called the marina earlier in the week and they still haven't winterized boat and it's going into the 20s tonight. Probably 29-30F right at the water which is where the boat is sitting. It'll be ok,  but c'mon man get it done already

Interesting, we bottomed out at 36, usually we have opposite results at this time of year.  We had our first frost and first freeze on the same day, 10/9.

My buddy has a boat in PWM and all I hear from him is how much the marina drags their feet every spring and fall.  They seem to operate on their own schedule with no care or communication.  Ball's in their court and they know it.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

:lol: 

27F outside right now at 750ft and 29F at 1500ft.  Pretty uniform radiational night.  Mansfield summit was 25F for a low but looks to be ticking up again.

PWS around town at all elevations ranging 26F to 29F, pretty deep boundary layer with 20s in lowest 5,000ft, no skim cooling while it’s warm just off the deck.

LOL at 19F at SLK.

Might be close to that tomorrow morning, here at the fake-cold factory.  Maybe get the deer moving.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just saw weeks 5 and 6. That would work. Obviously the typical caveats apply.

The change will be complete by Nov 25. The timing this year will be sweet. Storms and rumors of storms. Embrace the warmth and enjoy it. Huge EPO drop, expected recurving Typhoon, reset of Hemispheric pattern. Neg EPO , raising PNA falling AO NAO. If as usual models eventually catch up to the teleconnections depth of change the pattern will be loaded.

download (5).png

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll take the over on that. Hopefully ready after first week of December.

. Huge EPO drop, expected recurving Typhoon, reset of Hemispheric pattern. Neg EPO , raising PNA falling AO NAO. If as usual models eventually catch up to the teleconnections depth of change the pattern will be loaded.

download (5).png

 

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, over. The -PNA will be persistent. It doesn't mean torch the whole time, but for a more wintry look this will take time. We see this every year. Congrats Rockies into Canada for now.

I don't doubt a break early in the month, but I think the -PNA will keep the real cold in check throughout December.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't doubt a break early in the month, but I think the -PNA will keep the real cold in check throughout December.

This isn't to say a torch...or "sell December"....not what I mean. It can still snow, but I just don't expect an icebox. I think we will need the NAO to help.

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