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October 2022 OBS/DISC


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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Still can't believe I had snow blowing off the roof in the middle of the day in that one. 

Look at those dewpoints and wind direction on the sfc plot I posted....that is always key in very early season snow events...esp for coastal plain. You want to see those cold dewpoints just feeding into the precip to constantly create evap cooling to offset any diurnal heating or WAA. Dews in the teens just feeding down the S ME and SE NH coast.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Look at those dewpoints and wind direction on the sfc plot I posted....that is always key in very early season snow events...esp for coastal plain. You want to see those cold dewpoints just feeding into the precip to constantly create evap cooling to offset any diurnal heating or WAA. Dews in the teens just feeding down the S ME and SE NH coast.

Winds ever so backed at like a 350 direction helped too. I had a few events with N winds still give me trouble in November because of the SSTs in BOS harbor. Not this one lol.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds ever so backed at like a 350 direction helped too. I had a few events with N winds still give me trouble in November because of the SSTs in BOS harbor. Not this one lol.

Years ago on eastern (maybe 2007?), I made a list of required features to get advisory snows or greater in Boston in November (this would apply to October too), and one of the features always present was a high in Ontario or western Quebec.....you have to have the ageostrophic component more northwesterly (and actual sfc winds north or NNW)....if that wasn't present, then BOS got skunked every time and you'd see the accumulating snows limited to like 128 belt or 495 belt and N&W.

Lack of that high placement doomed BOS in the 11/6-7/12 event and the Octobomb 2011 and even the 11/15/18 event....each time the high was more toward CAR/eastern Quebec/western Nova Scotia which was enough to screw the immediate coast....but even like 5-10 miles inland was fine.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Years ago on eastern (maybe 2007?), I made a list of required features to get advisory snows or greater in Boston in November (this would apply to October too), and one of the features always present was a high in Ontario or western Quebec.....you have to have the ageostrophic component more northwesterly (and actual sfc winds north or NNW)....if that wasn't present, then BOS got skunked every time and you'd see the accumulating snows limited to like 128 belt or 495 belt and N&W.

Lack of that high placement doomed BOS in the 11/6-7/12 event and the Octobomb 2011 and even the 11/15/18 event....each time the high was more toward CAR/eastern Quebec/western Nova Scotia which was enough to screw the immediate coast....but even like 5-10 miles inland was fine.

Yep, I remember that checklist. I was very bearish in the Oct 2020 event. I was using the past Novie events (2014 especially) where it just didn't do much. I thought maybe C-1" here locally. Winds backed just enough. 

 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, I remember that checklist. I was very bearish in the Oct 2020 event. I was using the past Novie events (2014 especially) where it just didn't do much. I thought maybe C-1" here locally. Winds backed just enough. 

 

You’ve been bearish on 85% of events and jack on a lot of them.

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10 hours ago, rimetree said:

I'd like to think that October ushers in the end to long-lasting high pressure domes and gets us into a more active pattern. One of my favorite months for different reasons but often has some nice surprises in the weather dept.

I’d like to think I’ll be 28 years old this afternoon but my bet will be 75.

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