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October 2022 OBS/DISC

40/70 Benchmark

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22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Years ago on eastern (maybe 2007?), I made a list of required features to get advisory snows or greater in Boston in November (this would apply to October too), and one of the features always present was a high in Ontario or western Quebec.....you have to have the ageostrophic component more northwesterly (and actual sfc winds north or NNW)....if that wasn't present, then BOS got skunked every time and you'd see the accumulating snows limited to like 128 belt or 495 belt and N&W.

Lack of that high placement doomed BOS in the 11/6-7/12 event and the Octobomb 2011 and even the 11/15/18 event....each time the high was more toward CAR/eastern Quebec/western Nova Scotia which was enough to screw the immediate coast....but even like 5-10 miles inland was fine.

… Agreed. Ex, it’s one of the reasons why that 2003 December event was so prolific right down to the Bourne bridge almost. If one goes back and looks at the synoptics in the NCEP/library and check out the sfc pattern, that +PP could not have been more ideally  placed. 

… Huge diabetic inclusion from the south running over normal to that low ageostrophic feed, with easterly components at 850 mbar… = smoked

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That’s quite impressive two day trend in both the EPS and GEFs … re the pacific relay into North America/circulation construct.  

And hopefully for cold weather enthusiast that happens next month and we get another snow in October … no doubt followed inevitably by a highly compressed fast sheared warmer than normal winter with maybe one snow storm to hang our hats on…(sardonic). 

In the meantime … if the CPC Tele connector does not come around to a stronger positive PNA analysis/computation by now then there’s something wrong with that system because there’s no way those mass fields in the ensemble means of either reflect a mere neutral PNA from D6 to 11

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