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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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Out here, Quabbin was not notably low this year.   As was mentioned, late 2016, early 2017 was substantially lower.  Parts of 2002 were similar to 2016.  88/89 was dangerously low for safe drinking.  But the mid 60s put them all to shame.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s over now other than spot showers in spots 

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still gotta watch out for some localized heavy downpours through afternoon. There will be more stuff rotating off the ocean.

hmmm, whose forecast shall i trust?

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11 minutes ago, radarman said:

Out here, Quabbin was not notably low this year.   As was mentioned, late 2016, early 2017 was substantially lower.  Parts of 2002 were similar to 2016.  88/89 was dangerously low for safe drinking.  But the mid 60s put them all to shame.

1960s was like a 4 year drought which is why it got so bad. That's hard to do around here though which is why all the subsequent "droughts" haven't been able to match it. They have trouble lasting more than a year.

1963-1966 was the last time BOS had 4 consecutive sub-40 inch precip year. IIRC, I don't think we've even had 3 in a row since then. It's difficult to avoid precip around here.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1960s was like a 4 year drought which is why it got so bad. That's hard to do around here though which is why all the subsequent "droughts" haven't been able to match it. They have trouble lasting more than a year.

1963-1966 was the last time BOS had 4 consecutive sub-40 inch precip year. IIRC, I don't think we've even had 3 in a row since then. It's difficult to avoid precip around here.

Huge body of water nearby and the Gulf Stream say “Hi.”

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Huge body of water nearby and the Gulf Stream say “Hi.”

One reason 1965 was so bad is that it was the lowest precip total on record.....but it was already following 2 years of low precip. By itself, it would have been pretty bad, but the fact it came on the heels of back to back very low precip years already made it so much worse.

BTW, 1965 is so anomalous, that the 2nd driest year (1910) is closer to 14th place (2016) than 1965's total.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Summer of 2020…that summer it didn’t rain here for close to 3 months. This year, we were much wetter than that summer was.  

That was dry too. But just speaking about here to NE MA...we were the epicenter of Stein. BOS to NE MA is still way below normal. Logan was BN for precip in Steintember.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just spotty stuff on models. You don’t forecast anymore 

The models didn't really have what fell last night either - I mean it was there, but what it ended up looking like on radar overnight was was much more widespread than the surface depictions on the HRRR.  The NAM was closest I believe - though that was overdone... but I wouldn't count out another decent .25" - .50" of rain even back into CT.

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8 hours ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:


Yeah this is crazy and unexpected. Been going on for over 2 hours here in Clinton with only a brief lull. One of the most intense lightning storms I can remember here. Not much sleep happening in the house tonight.

Folks in the NNJ community where I grew up were posting on FB yesterday about multiple "explosions" - can't blame them too much.  In my 20+ years there I can't remember siggy thunder during a low-50s stratiform rain event.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

One reason 1965 was so bad is that it was the lowest precip total on record.....but it was already following 2 years of low precip. By itself, it would have been pretty bad, but the fact it came on the heels of back to back very low precip years already made it so much worse.

BTW, 1965 is so anomalous, that the 2nd driest year (1910) is closer to 14th place (2016) than 1965's total.

1965 was the nadir year, driest on record for all 3 SNE states, also DE/NJ/PA.  (NY record remains in the Southern Tier, a much drier climate, but the 26.09" for NYC in 1965 is 6.9" less than 2 [1964 tied with 1881] and that #2 is closer to #40 than to #1.)  1963 was on record pace until the 4.5" event in early November pushed it into (then) 4th place.  For the NYC area, summer 1966 was the most critical.  Thru August that year was running just 3/4" above 1965 and met summer '66 had been both the driest and hottest on record - latter topped in 2010.  1961 was BN and '62 the 20th driest, POR 152 years.  The cumulative precip deficit was like nothing else in the MA/SNE records.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They found some dug out canoes in the local pond in the 60s when the water receded. 

I worked with our curator at my old job restoring once in a while. The canoe spent 1 year in antifreeze before being worked on. 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The drought here was worse than 2016. At least locally. It was legit. 

Worse in what way?  I am not trying to be a tool ( at least this time). 

Are you talking simply from a historical record sense or other?  

When I see the severe drought discussions, my mind goes to food production, water scarcity, etc...tangible things that make things miserable for us humans, animals, etc., not Kevin's lawn. 

:stein: seemed to be on this drought fear train where we all should have been heeding his doom and gloom warnings, and if not sure death would be upon all of us. 

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Worse in what way?  I am not trying to be a tool ( at least this time). 

Are you talking simply from a historical record sense or other?  

When I see the severe drought discussions, my mind goes to food production, water scarcity, etc...tangible things that make things miserable for us humans, animals, etc., not Kevin's lawn. 

:stein: seemed to be on this drought fear train where we all should have been heeding his doom and gloom warnings, and if not sure death would be upon all of us. 

In terms of water deficits. We were losing mature trees here from dryness. Ponds and rivers were all drying up. 

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24 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Worse in what way?  I am not trying to be a tool ( at least this time). 

Are you talking simply from a historical record sense or other?  

When I see the severe drought discussions, my mind goes to food production, water scarcity, etc...tangible things that make things miserable for us humans, animals, etc., not Kevin's lawn. 

:stein: seemed to be on this drought fear train where we all should have been heeding his doom and gloom warnings, and if not sure death would be upon all of us. 

My numbers above show the historically low precip for NYC during 1963 thru August 1966, but that town was merely near the center of the MA/SNE drought.  IIRC, the reservoirs serving NYC were down to a few weeks of available water when Sept 21, 1966 delivered a 5.53" deluge, which marked the drought's end though no one knew it until subsequent months continued with normal/AN precip.

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In terms of water deficits. We were losing mature trees here from dryness. Ponds and rivers were all drying up. 

Ya, that certainly wasn’t even close to being the case here this year…not at all. Guess things were a lot worse out your way. We had showers hitting frequently this summer here. 

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In terms of water deficits. We were losing mature trees here from dryness. Ponds and rivers were all drying up. 

What are the ponds and rivers in your area like now?  Close to normal levels? Still in deficit?  

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