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21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Can’t wait for the significant increase in accidents from barely awake people on the way to work and school in the dark.

 

How stupid to give into uninformed mob rule yelling at clouds.

 

It gets dark early because you live in the north during the winter solstice

Standard makes a lot more sense.

Oh boo hoo it gets dark early in winter, I'd rather have that than dark mornings. Of course the bill was proposed by a Florida senator 

We also tried this in the 70s with disastrous results 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on

Not correct-the house has not voted on it.  I was at a neighborhood gathering recently and I was surprised how many people had this incorrect info.  My guess is that we will continue to argue about it twice a year for the next 25 yrs...:arrowhead:

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Back to weather: TT tomorrow up to 51 (EC) in the first bunch of convection. Could be interesting near NYC with a small hailer? and or/thunder?  WPC qpf issued the past couple of cycles looks too conservative and I saw SPC shifted the thunder risk eastward of NYC.  Not sure why...but they probably have more and better guidance than I. 

 

I can see running less less than 0.1 near TTN-ABE otherwise I can see two bands of showers, one in the morning 4A-11A and one late day or night with occurrence sometime between 4P Mon-4A Tue. The yield I think may be more similar to the 12z/15 EC/RGEM/HRDPS. That said: I think the12z/15  GFS & SPC HREF are too conservative.  

To me this is an interesting event, despite the overall boring summer-early fall.  By the way NYC reservoir now within 7% of capacity...still low but ok and slightly closer to norm. Will post Tue around 9A the combined two event totals (late last week and tomorrow's).  

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Under partly sunny skies, readings again climbed into the 60s across the region. Out West, it was another day of exceptional heat in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle recorded its highest temperature so late in the season and its second highest October reading on record. Only October 1, 1987 (89°) had a higher temperature. Bellingham, WA set an October monthly record. Its previous latest 80° temperature occurred on September 28, 2003 and again on September 28, 2017.

Preliminary high temperatures included:
Abbotsford, BC: 79° (old record: 76°, 2002)
Bellingham, WA: 80° (old record: 71°, 2015 and 2018) ***New October Record***
Portland: 85° (old record: 80°, 2002)
Seattle: 88° (old record: 72°, 2018)
Vancouver: 68° (old record: 66°, 1997)
Victoria: 75° (old record: 71°, 2002)

Much cooler air will move into the region early this week. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures rising into the 60s. A shower is possible tomorrow as a cold front cross the region.

Behind the front, temperatures will rise no higher than the 50s through Thursday in many parts of the region. Moderation is possible during the weekend.

Chicago will likely see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season late tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.978 today.

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.852 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (1.6° below normal).

 

 

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Back on LI for 2 weeks. Just love the marine influence smell here.  Something I really took for granted while I lived here and never noticed that much until I moved away.   Even though it was coolish today, the air had a humid Martine feel that I now miss living in central NC.

Below is a photo taken at the TWA memorial at Smith Point Beach around 6pm today where it was in the low 60s at that time. 

 

20221016_180913_HDR.jpg

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3 hours ago, Fantom X said:

Back on LI for 2 weeks. Just love the marine influence smell here.  Something I really took for granted while I lived here and never noticed that much until I moved away.   Even though it was coolish today, the air had a humid Martine feel that I now miss living in central NC.

Below is a photo taken at the TWA memorial at Smith Point Beach around 6pm today where it was in the low 60s at that time. 

 

20221016_180913_HDR.jpg

Thanks for visiting the subforum.  You've been down there 4 years?

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14 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Libertybell did but it came in 14 consecutive text messages and the sun chose to ignore it. 

We should just find a way to change that annoying tilt of the earth's axis and make it straight up down.

Hey if we can move an asteroid out of the way who knows what else we can do.

#dreams of a perfectionist

 

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under partly sunny skies, readings again climbed into the 60s across the region. Out West, it was another day of exceptional heat in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle recorded its highest temperature so late in the season and its second highest October reading on record. Only October 1, 1987 (89°) had a higher temperature. Bellingham, WA set an October monthly record. Its previous latest 80° temperature occurred on September 28, 2003 and again on September 28, 2017.

Preliminary high temperatures included:
Abbotsford, BC: 79° (old record: 76°, 2002)
Bellingham, WA: 80° (old record: 71°, 2015 and 2018) ***New October Record***
Portland: 85° (old record: 80°, 2002)
Seattle: 88° (old record: 72°, 2018)
Vancouver: 68° (old record: 66°, 1997)
Victoria: 75° (old record: 71°, 2002)

Much cooler air will move into the region early this week. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures rising into the 60s. A shower is possible tomorrow as a cold front cross the region.

Behind the front, temperatures will rise no higher than the 50s through Thursday in many parts of the region. Moderation is possible during the weekend.

Chicago will likely see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season late tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.978 today.

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.852 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (1.6° below normal).

 

 

Interesting that three of those records are from 2002!  And Seattle beat their previous record by 16 degrees?!  Is there a record for how many degrees a previous record is beaten by lol?

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. There will be some showers, especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 68°

Much cooler air will move into the region by tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.0°; 15-Year: 64.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.7°; 15-Year: 67.4°

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The cold departures get much smaller east of the Hudson this month. NJ has had some of the coldest departures in the area. More cold this week centered west of NYC will enhance this pattern. Then models indicate a warm up later in the month. So we’ll see if the cold departures can hold especially east of NYC with the coming warm up.

EWR….-4.6

TTN….-4.2

HPN….-1.0

LGA….-2.7

JFK….-2.1

ISP…..-0.6


2E064B03-0ACE-4198-A8B2-4A1BA0D61091.thumb.png.20f4a92723c885b84a21f812e9199823.png


D268265F-3156-4766-A16F-EC28166BFA30.thumb.png.8b94fb5b0f528633542f4546ba851c91.png

1C1DED56-6EE0-4641-9823-F5A090495C1F.thumb.png.49c31af8c6ca8c4e4102d8634365b040.png

40C384AA-C74C-4897-839E-24DEAC4187E1.thumb.png.15a1d3dbe34a22bcd1259cd6c5da5a94.png

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting that three of those records are from 2002!  And Seattle beat their previous record by 16 degrees?!  Is there a record for how many degrees a previous record is beaten by lol?

Seattle beat its daily record high temperature by 16°F (tied for the 2nd largest margin). There are 14 days on which the margin of record is 10°F or above, with a disproportionate share of such days occurring since 2015.
image.jpeg.ae75107059d5d099d57d53f572ce46f8.jpeg

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