Allsnow Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Drought destroyer for Much of the area. Models didn’t handle the dry air and precipitation well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Drought destroyer for Much of the area. Models didn’t handle the dry air and precipitation well with this. No clue what my totals are, but it’s been nonstop here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 1.08” so far today. 2.78” event total. Sky clearing out, I can finally see the moon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 4.6 total Back to cutting tomorrow Ive had enough rain for the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 A brief period of warmer readings will develop tomorrow and continue through Friday before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +37.19 today. The old daily record was +27.39, which was set in 1999. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.570 today. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.932 (RMM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Bring on the sunshine! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Montauk been getting crushed all day. Must be over 5” for the event out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Between the 2" on Tuesday and 1" in change today, that makes for a pretty solid 3" event. I think it's even more impressive that tomorrow will be a week since I've seen sunshine. Grass looking great though for this time of year, just needs a rake/cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 16 hours ago, MANDA said: Event total 2.78" over last 5 days. Entire forum received much needed rain. Coastal NJ did best with widespread 3-6" of rainfall. Some local amounts there 5-8" with even some local 10"+ amounts. Drought Monitor maps should be pretty much completely erased if not by tomorrow then by next Thursday issuance. We actually had some of heaviest rains after this map was issued. Long duration strong thunderstorms after 4 PM with some very heavy downpours. The sky has finally cleared and I can see the moon shining over my garden-- the day will be glorious and temps in the mid 70s for the next two days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like 4-5" amounts here which won't completely wipe out the deficit but it's pretty close. Rare to see 5" amounts at both my houses lol. Reminds me of the Jan 2016 super snowstorm where I got over 30 inches of snow at both. It's actually closer to 6" at both places now with the heavy downpours I got at both places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 9 hours ago, scootmandu said: Was about to post from my PC when a bolt of nearby lightning temporarily knocked out power. Safer to post from my phone. I had been watching the lightning approach for over an hour. Still more storms to our east, heading west. The weather bug app lightning map feature showed a large cluster of lightning strikes clustered around us. 1 was virtually on top of us. Yet none of the weather apps (Dark Sky, Weather Underground, etc..) were predicting even that rain was imminent. The biggest strikes here were about 10 minutes before this radar screenshot. Still hear rumbles of thunder. Total so far: 0.59 for the day, 1.66 total. Current rate 0.17 That dark red thunderstorm that hit here from about 4 PM to 5 PM was a sight to behold. We usually get something like that when a storm is about to leave the area so it was fun to see (as long as you know it's the storm's last hurrah lol.) Also the limited sunlight we had earlier in the day made me think we might create enough instability to get these in the late afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 hours ago, scootmandu said: Dark Sky usually specifically does that and Weather Underground shows hour by hour totals (as do a few others). When I first saw the storms on radar it seemed pretty clear they were coming our way an hour before. But the apps I was looking at showed no imminent rain from them. Thanks for the info, though. Do these work on a PC or do you need to have a phone to be able to use them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Between the 2" on Tuesday and 1" in change today, that makes for a pretty solid 3" event. I think it's even more impressive that tomorrow will be a week since I've seen sunshine. Grass looking great though for this time of year, just needs a rake/cut. Not seeing sun isn't a good thing though, SAD hitting early this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: This storm would've been March 1888 all over if it was winter lmao Also reminds me of the Feb 26 2010 storm (if you want to talk about winter.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 This was the 5th coldest first 5 days of October at Newark coming in at -9 and 53.5°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 5 Missing Count 1 1974-10-05 51.5 0 2 2003-10-05 52.3 0 3 1945-10-05 52.5 0 4 1935-10-05 53.0 0 5 2022-10-05 53.5 0 - 1938-10-05 53.5 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower and perhaps middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.2°; 15-Year: 69.4° Newark: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.2° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the 5th coldest first 5 days of October at Newark coming in at -9 and 53.5°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 5 Missing Count 1 1974-10-05 51.5 0 2 2003-10-05 52.3 0 3 1945-10-05 52.5 0 4 1935-10-05 53.0 0 5 2022-10-05 53.5 0 - 1938-10-05 53.5 0 Interesting that outside of 2003, all of those are from around 50 years ago or more. Surprised that 1976 isn't on this list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 13 hours ago, Allsnow said: Drought destroyer for Much of the area. Models didn’t handle the dry air and precipitation well with this. One of the more poorly modeled systems I have seen in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 4.70" total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging. 62degs.(54/70) or +1. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 69-74, wind w., m. sunny-late clouds, 62 tomorrow AM. 56*(84%RH) here at 7am. 58* at 8am. 60* at 9am. 63* at 10am. 66* at Noon. 74* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 5:30pm. 70* at 7pm. 68* at 8pm. 65* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 My weather station back home picked up about 1.72”, did the south shore get relatively shafted again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 After 140 hours, here comes the sun. 55 hour warm up before next front and cooler push comes Friday afternoon and lasts through the Mon (10/10). Overall looking dry the next week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Rain totals 10/1 - 10/6 New Brnswck: 5.21 BLM: 4.49 TTN: 3.94 PHL: 3.82 EWR: 3.81 JFK: 3.79 LGA: 3.37 NYC: 3.28 ISP: 3.08 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Rain totals 10/1 - 10/6 New Brnswck: 5.21 BLM: 4.49 TTN: 3.94 PHL: 3.82 EWR: 3.81 JFK: 3.79 LGA: 3.37 NYC: 3.28 ISP: 3.08 Tony, can you include ABE, MPO, Scranton (I don't remember the three letter code for them.) and FRG? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Tony, can you include ABE, MPO, Scranton (I don't remember the three letter code for them.) and FRG? Thanks! MPO: 3.22 ABE: 2.07 (need to confirm) AVP: 2.02 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Rain totals 10/1 - 10/6 New Brnswck: 5.21 BLM: 4.49 TTN: 3.94 PHL: 3.82 EWR: 3.81 JFK: 3.79 LGA: 3.37 NYC: 3.28 ISP: 3.08 Wow, so much for that high pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Finished with 2.95" here. Updated maps show six day event totals. Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF. High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure. Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore. It eventually made it way beyond. I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb. Tracks were text book classic. Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland. Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 4.88 final 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 54 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: My weather station back home picked up about 1.72”, did the south shore get relatively shafted again? Assuming Lindenhurst? Sounds too low. Jfk and Islip were both over 3 inches. I’m in Seaford at 3.65 on my weatherflow. I checked a couple weatherflows in your area and they are both over 3 inches. I know they use haptic rain sensors but when they are all pretty close in measurement, I think you can say it’s accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now