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Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?


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23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like there could be some nasty conditions along the shoreline on Sunday/Monday if the GFS is right. I'm interested in the post landfall motion and whether this turns more progressive if that trough is a little stronger. 


The trough is too shallow and lifts out too quickly for Ian.  He is left wandering around the southeast states for two or 3 days as a cold core extra tropical system.  May have a tough time gaining enough latitude for D.C./ Winchester.

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LWX AFD from this afternoon:

For next weekend, that is where forecast uncertainty greatly
increases over our area. Hurricane Ian is forecast to move into the
southeast this weekend after landfall somewhere along the eastern
Gulf Coast. What Ian does from there is still quite uncertain in
terms of the when and where. Some impacts from whatever is left of
Ian are possible this weekend though, so monitor the latest forecast
for Ian from the National Hurricane Center with more details at
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40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like guidance is split in 2 schools of thought, one having Ian fizzle in the Carolinas and the other driving it up the EC. Must depend on the interaction with the trough

Totally the Key looks like the trough is pulling Ian north into the Gulf then as the trough lifts out Ian is only able to get so far north to say Venice Florida on the West Coast before Ian gets tugged NE or ENE through Florida and then leaving near Cape Canaveral to eventually turn north bound towards the Carolinas as the trough over us leaves Ian behind and able to come north bound up the Coast. Looks like the models are opening the door to this possibility and it will be very interesting to see if the 0z and 12z suites continue to advertise this situation. Hey, the NAO is going from Negative to positive moving upwards on October 1st which often does indicate a storm moving up the East Coast.  I suppose time will tell. 

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