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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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13 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Seen a new estimate today, $63 billion for Florida. Again that’s mostly for damage caused in SW FL and not the flooding damage through central and eastern sections of the state. I’m curious as to the total cost Ian will have inflicted overall. 2 US landfalls with extensive flooding which should put him in the Top-3 for US hurricanes. And there’s Cuba and we still don’t know a lot about his impacts down there yet. Ian has a shot at being one of the costliest Atlantic hurricanes.

It will be over $100 billion

 

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On 9/30/2022 at 11:56 AM, USCG RS said:

 

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

Since the Federal government will probably be paying for these uninsured and under insured properties, they government should simply buy the property and designate it federal seashore not to be built on again as climate issues continue to worsen.

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Quick update from Seminole County, FL. Still without power, a few homes in my neighborhood closest to the creek that runs through our neighborhood have flooded.

Seen some things around town I’ve never seen in my 52 years in Central Florida. Seen 3 cars washed into debris along the Econ river (believe all were rescued), many roads that have never flooded are closed, one washed out. And I know if 4 friends now that lost everything to flooding and we’re rescued by National Guard trucks in the UCF area. I also understand that New Smyrna Beach is much worse.

The main story, understandably, is SWFL, but the damage in central FL is historic.


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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

With death toll already over 70 I do expect a number between 100-200 total.

Damage probably from 60-80 billion though higher numbers wouldn't shock me. 

in my opinion, and from what I’m hearing from friends and family down in swfl, that’s a very conservative death toll estimate you’re expecting 

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4 hours ago, Amped said:

In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

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15 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate.   Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate.   Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.

… who didn’t evacuate 

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Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

Was thinking about this today. Ike is probably the last hurricane that had such a significant storm surge that took pretty much a worst case scenario path. As bad as Ida, Michael, Laura, and Irma were, they all actually missed more populated areas (imagine Michael into PCB, Irma slightly west up the Gulf coast, or Laura into more populated areas of LA). I do recall with Ike there being rumors of a sign isn’t death toll early on that settled to a lower number. Hopefully that’s the case here as well but I am concerned due to the shift east in the course, age of the population, and what appears to be a large populace that ignored evacuation warnings.

On top of that, I don’t recall storm chasers noting fatalities in any of the hurricanes discussed above. I haven’t sent that myself, is it widespread here? Without power still I’m pretty limited in what I can look up. Anecdotally though, that is concerning.


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On 10/1/2022 at 12:59 PM, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always

Like always?  Meaning everything reported to date by the media on Ian has been BS?  Of course not, the reporting has generally been fantastic.  Such an ignorant statement. 

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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Like always?  Meaning everything reported to date by the media on Ian has been BS?  Of course not, the reporting has generally been fantastic.  Such an ignorant statement. 

Fantastic? No it has not been fantastic. Matter of opinion I guess, but often after these storms we get stories they report and it an exaggeration of the truth due to the fact they don’t do their homework. There’s already been some things covered/reported on in the wake of Ian that is questionable.

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12 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

I watched chasers who were down there during landfall and the one thing that chasers with their dashcams do show, is what the neighborhoods look like, as they go down various streets.   The one significant thing that I noticed with where Ian hit was that in certain locales like Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte you had more "Charley-standard" construction where in other locations like Ft. Meyers Beach and Cape Coral, you basically had mobile home parks and 1 or 2-story wood construction units.  Those were just inundated, with some that literally exploded from the winds and/or were washed off their foundations.  There were a number of pics of clusters of tumbled-over and bunched mobile homes and trailers that were surrounded by and jumbled up with boats that had washed onshore and slammed against them.  And making it worse was that you have a huge river that cuts through Ft. Meyers that just added to the inundation.

And distinctively, if comparing to what happened with Michael land-falling @ Mexico Beach/Port St. Joe, where most if not all of those homes obliterated on those beaches were either luxury condos/vacation homes and/or tourist rentals, the homes in the Ft. Meyers area were actual year-round residential, many including working class support staff for the resorts and tourism in the area.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2022/10/01/hurricane-ian-fort-myers-mobile-home-residents/8141577001/

These mobile parks and little residential streets may be where the heartbreak happens.

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Let's discuss Ian's intensity just prior to landfall in Florida on 9/28.

At 08:57Z AF301 observed surface winds via dropsonde of 131 kts.

At 10:11Z NOAA2 observed surface winds via dropsonde of 124 kts.

At 10:13Z NOAA2 observed flight level winds of 150 kts.

At 10:13Z NOAA2 observed surface winds via SFMR of 137 kts.

At 10:29Z AF301 observed flight level winds of 135 kts.

At 10:29Z AF301 observed surface winds via SFMR of 137 kts.

[big time gap]

At 17:23Z AF307 observed flight level winds of 131 kts.

At 17:23Z AF307 observed surface winds via SFMR of 121 kts.

In the big time gap between recon flights KTBW was consistently showing 150+ kts between 9000-12000 ft depending on the time of the scan or specific location with isolated bins approaching 170 kts on the western side.

I realize this isn't hard data but HWRF, HMON, and HAFS analyzed Ian at 140, 140, and 150 kts respectively.

What are the odds that Ian strengthened between say 10:30Z and 16:00Z and then began weakening after 16:00Z as it approached land? Did Ian achieve cat 5 status even if only for an hour or two?

Please chime in if I have incorrectly stated any of the observations incorrectly or have additional observations or commentary that might be insightful.

 

 

 

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The remnants of Ian are becoming a hybrid low near the mid-Atlantic coast with a shallow warm core (mainly 850 mb and above).   The interaction between this very slow-moving low and a strong high pressure system over E Canada and the NE US is creating a major, multi-tidal cycle coastal flooding event from northeast NC to southern NJ that will continue into Wed.

 

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21 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

CNN is reporting 100 deaths now in Florida, with 4 more in North Carolina. So it appears to be over the 50-100 mark at this time.

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4 hours ago, Whineminster said:

If all that got dealt a Major blow is FMB and Sanibel I'd consider this a win, you don't hear a ton about catastrophic damage in FM itself or Cape Coral

2 feet of flood waters in a house isn’t as photo worthy for the media 

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On 10/1/2022 at 4:59 PM, GaWx said:

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

 My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F

Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
* = goes offshore FL

12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS

12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS

12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB

0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town

12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town

0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town


 Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:

CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A

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Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
* = goes offshore FL
12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS
0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS
12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS
0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS
12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB
0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town
12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town
0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town

 Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:
CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A


Thank you for taking the time to post all this. I think most of us don’t look at the UKMET for tropical guidance, the moral of the story is don’t discount any model when forecasting.

Side note: I remember well people saying the HWRF was out to lunch for its pressure falls during Michael.


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Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

I think it was a tough call that was influenced greatly by Irma’s underwhelming storm surge from five years ago. In 2017 that storm turned slightly south hitting Marco Island but largely sparing Fort Myers area.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

I have seen that. They don't seem to mention that nobody had this coming in at 155mph either. I sure was shocked when I got up that morning and saw how it had intensified.  An analysis of who died and where they died will help sort some things out.  Maybe some things can be learned and certain groups may need to be targeted more when there is a threat?

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The problem is the media these days sensationalizes everything and goes nuts when a tropical storm or weak hurricane hits. People then think "oh that's all that happens during a hurricane" not realizing the difference between a cat 1 and cat 4/5 hurricane.  Then when a cat 4/5 is approaching they brush it off. The media is the one playing the boy who cried wolf game. 

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58 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

I have seen that. They don't seem to mention that nobody had this coming in at 155mph either. I sure was shocked when I got up that morning and saw how it had intensified.  An analysis of who died and where they died will help sort some things out.  Maybe some things can be learned and certain groups may need to be targeted more when there is a threat?

I saw a video compilation of the 'cane that was tweeted out and you can see when the ERC happened (fairly quickly too) and the eye dilated like a ****. :o

 

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14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:


 

I saw a video compilation of the 'cane that was tweeted out and you can see when the ERC happened (fairly quickly too) and the eye dilated like a ****. :o

 

DGEXNlY.gif

For posterity because the ERC was such a huge component to the strength of this storm.

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4 hours ago, sojitodd said:

CNN is reporting 100 deaths now in Florida, with 4 more in North Carolina. So it appears to be over the 50-100 mark at this time.

At least 1 death in NC was attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning because someone started up their generator inside their house and went to sleep shortly after. 

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