MattPetrulli Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, ATDoel said: Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point? Definitely looks extratropical. Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. Correct, the hybrid definition fits since it's also entangled in the trough and lacks a core. I do think if it had a couple days it might try to rebuild a core. It will try though hence the models intensifying it before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core? I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Sandy had warm core at landfall, it was still hybrid and some station, I can't remember which, reported a sustained 64 knots in Suffolk County before NHC downgraded it and stopped advisories. The whole Sandy thing is why NHC was issuing advisories on Fiona through Canadian landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, ATDoel said: what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core? I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at? There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer. Took some digging but finally found it. Seems to be an asymmetric warm core for now 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 ^yes that. Got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^yes that. Got a link? https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Recon is on its way, should be rather fascinating from a scientific perspective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 The overall Carolina threat as a whole going under the radar, obviously we know why. That being said, this may not be the run of the mill category 1 for SC/NC. Large size could inflict significant wind damage/surge in some areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Very interesting satellite view right now. The LL circulation is going ESE. Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center. This will be interesting to see how this plays out. I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 I’ve got family in a large condo complex on Myrtle Beach - they are way high enough. Expecting some good storm videos! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Very interesting satellite view right now. The LL circulation is going ESE. Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center. This will be interesting to see how this plays out. I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out. Saw this too. Does not appear the LLC is moving with a northerly component at all on radar. Very weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 I'm in McClellanville with a house on ground level on the creek. Certainly a little concerned at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Based on current movement what are the chances this gets pushed out and never really come ashore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Not looking tropical anymore. I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Recon will report back whether it is warm core or not. Time sensitive, what looks like a cold front approaching the center on vis satellite probably is te cold front approaching the core per a quick glance at SPC meso analysis. I assume the warm core could occlude, and be warm core at flight level for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Is there any appreciable possibility of partial regeneration in the southern half of the storm? Or will interaction with the cold front/dry air/mid-lat shear dash that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mowfishin said: Based on current movement what are the chances this gets pushed out and never really come ashore? Zero, high moving in and trough lifting out. SC/NC landfall guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Zero, high moving in and trough lifting out. SC/NC landfall guaranteed What do you think for up here this weekend? Models def beefing up rain totals and some gusty winds aren’t to far off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, Mowfishin said: I'm in McClellanville with a house on ground level on the creek. Certainly a little concerned at this point Did you live there in ‘89? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds. The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track. Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: NHC actual locations: 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W 2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W 5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said: Did you live there in ‘89? I was not. House was. Had water up 6' or so on the walls best I can tell from renovations I have been doing. With the recorded surge then, I'm not sure how it didn't cover the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track. Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: NHC actual locations: 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W 2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W 5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach. And in between the two gets you to model consensus ne of Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: See my post above, NHC calling it a hybrid, non-classical hurricane -- language I've never seen them use before Pretty much a hurricane strength sub tropical storm, reminds me of hurricane noel in 2007 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Noel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 In your wildest imagination, you’d never believe this possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Amped said: Not looking tropical anymore. I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date. And we got that high to the north, too bad it’s September and not January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Pre Ian sunset 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 18Z UKMET didn't change from the 12Z and is still just S of Myrtle Beach for SC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 65 knot SFMR, which confirms NHC's upgrade to a hurricane earlier 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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