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55 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Most of the last 2/3 run cycles of the gfs and ecm had some tropical low into the GOM towards the end of next week.   Will be interesting to see the progression of any development and any subsequent potential for rains here.

Looks like Canadian high pressure will dominate later in the month. So plenty of easterly flow in the forecast. Any tropical moisture coming underneath will help us out. 
 

A2AF21A5-F6D9-492F-9F12-AC70CF20AD66.thumb.png.0fa9dd1d7dc543f96c69d490fdfa7d5e.png

E12812CB-238C-4600-9A1C-B4383170C789.thumb.png.9fe885dda55e0910f40faff3e93ab3c7.png

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Most of the last 2/3 run cycles of the gfs and ecm had some tropical low into the GOM towards the end of next week.   Will be interesting to see the progression of any development and any subsequent potential for rains here.

The 6z GFS was a dream come true for drought busting rains on the east coast

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


That sure was. I have a feeling we will
See the rubber band snap back at some point. The south shore desert will run off like a champ and lead to epic basement flooding.


.

Brightwaters is notorious for that. Many underground streams. French drain saved my as* in my old house 

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Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The mild weather's stay will be short.

A sharp cold shot is likely after midweek. Parts of the region will then see their coldest temperatures so far this season. Temperatures will warm up during the second half of the weekend. However, there is an increasing probability that the month could end with cooler than normal conditions.

Out West, more record heat prevailed. Highlights included:

Kansas City: 99° (old record: 95°, 1931 and 1948)
Lincoln: 103° (old record: 96°, 2016 and 2018)
North Platte: 97° (old record: 96°, 2016)
Omaha: 99° (old record: 95°, 2018)
St. Louis: 97° (tied record set in 2017)
Wichita: 100° (old record: 99°, 1980) ***Record 3rd 100° day after September 15***

Denver hit 92°. Although that fell 2° short of the daily record, it was the record 10th September day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. During 1961-1990, the average was 2.3 days with an average high temperature of 76.9°. During 1991-2020, that figure increased to 4.0 days with an average high temperature of 79.2°.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +12.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.273 today.

On September 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.525 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.278 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and pleasantly warm.  A shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 85°

The coolest air mass so far this season will begin pushing into the region tomorrow. Friday will be much cooler than normal with the temperature topping out in the 60s in parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 77.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 78.1°

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Eps has a wet signal from the 1st to 6th along the east coast. All you can ask for at this point in time 

It might be pretty impactful regardless of where it ends up in the Gulf. 

Strong highs all around are preventing a quick recurve east and we could see trough enhancement post landfall a la 06z GFS & Euro. 

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It might be pretty impactful regardless of where it ends up in the Gulf. 

Strong highs all around are preventing a quick recurve east and we could see trough enhancement post landfall a la 06z GFS & Euro. 

Yep 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_42.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

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73  / 58 and another gorgeous day.  Highs low perhaps mid 80s.  Front will come through during the overnight and into tomorrow.  We'll see how much rain / wind makes it through.  Cool Fri (9/23) and windy, cool through Sun (9/25) before a bit of a warm up more towards normal by Mon (9/26) - Wed (9/28).  Next front slow to come through and we await Hermine formation and eventual track through the GOM or through Florida and up into the Southeast coast.  Way beyond looks a bit warmer as we push beyond the start of next month,

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35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_42.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

 

9/21 ooz euro would be east of this gfs track and by H240 the center of Hermine (assuming its name) is over or near Norfolk, poised to crawl up the coast from there.  

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The next 8 days are averaging  66degs.(57/72) or -1.

Month to date is  73.0[+2.0].           Should be 71.0[+1.1] by the 29th.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today:  75-80, wind w., variable skies, 68 tomorrow AM-raining by 8am.

67*(75%RH) here at 7am.         69* at 9am.        71*/70* at Noon.      72* at 2pm.     Reached 76* at 3pm.       72* at 7pm.

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I dare say SW Suffolk may see its' largest rainfall in almost four months over the next 24-36 hours...

18z NAM looks great... hope the 18z GFS follows suit...

And down the road, it looks like the Hurricane remnants will really help in alleviating the severe drought conditions...

Thank goodness...

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, T5403CG said:

I dare say SW Suffolk may see its' largest rainfall in almost four months over the next 24-36 hours...

18z NAM looks great... hope the 18z GFS follows suit...

And down the road, it looks like the Hurricane remnants will really help in alleviating the severe drought conditions...

Thank goodness...

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk
 

You haven’t learned yet! Trust nothing for the DSS

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Following a pleasantly warm day, cooler weather is on the way.
Parts of the region will see their coldest temperatures so far this season on Friday. Temperatures will warm up during the second half of the weekend. However, there is an increasing probability that the month could end with cooler than normal conditions.

During late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Hurricane Fiona will likely make landfall in Atlantic Canada. In part due to the ongoing marine heatwave, Fiona will likely do so as a category 2 hurricane.

Parts of the central and southern U.S. experienced another day of record heat. High temperatures included:

Little Rock: 101° (old record: 100°, 1925)
Memphis: 102° (old record: 98°, 1980) ***Latest 100° reading on record by one day***
Miami: 94° (old record: 93°, 1987 and 1989)
Nashville: 100° (old record: 97°, 1955) ***Latest 100° reading on record by 10 days***
Oklahoma City: 97° (tied record set in 1948 and tied in 1956, 1980 and 1998)
Tulsa: 99° (old record: 98°, 1980)
Wichita: 101° (old record: 99°, 1956 and 1980) ***4th 100° day after September 15th vs. old mark of 1 day***

Galveston reached 90° for the 104th time this year. That broke the record of 103 90° days, which was set in 2011. Minneapolis extended its record streak of 70° to 118 days. That streak will now end as much cooler air has moved in.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +14.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.334 today.

On September 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.368 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.508 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

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On 9/20/2022 at 2:13 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


That sure was. I have a feeling we will
See the rubber band snap back at some point. The south shore desert will run off like a champ and lead to epic basement flooding.


.

No one wants basement flooding trust me.

The dry summer was AMAZING.  I want that EVERY summer.  Such perfect weather!

We have gotten sick and tired of the nasty humid tropical rain forest buggy summers of the last few years so now we're finally back to our normal summers of the 80s and prior.  Hopefully this is the long term pattern for years to come resulting from shifting back the AMO from the warm to the cool phase.  I thought we might be headed towards dry summers when I hinted at it last spring.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and cooler.  Showers or thundershowers are possible this morning into early this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 79°

Tomorrow will be sharply cooler with temperatures topping out in the 60s across the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.5°; 15-Year: 76.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.7°; 15-Year: 77.7°

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