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24 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I wouldn't doubt it a month ago but now the average high is about 75 with lower sun angle.

We recently had mid 90’s in October. Newark also hit 80 in February a few years back.

Not the same circumstances, but I’ve come to never say never.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

First refreshing airmass since last spring across the area. We needed stronger enough blocking to pull it off. The alignment of the blocking and trough to the north will eventually influence the track of Fiona. 
 

going to be a really tough forecast if the trough doesn't sweep her out

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21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

going to be a really tough forecast if the trough doesn't sweep her out

If she misses the first trough she prob gets pulled back northwest and approaches the Carolina coast before the next trough sweeps her out.  

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's compression of heat ahead of a strong trough but 95 will still be hard to pull off. Also cloud debris of any sort would get in the way. 

Low 90s max is my guess 

If you're talking about Newark, you have a shot at 90 on all 3 days. Central Park may not get there any of them but has probably the best shot depending on the timing of the cold front on Thursday.

WX/PT

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It appears to me at this time that the potential for any more 90 degree temperatures at Central Park has rapidly diminished this afternoon. I'd say looking at the latest model data that the only outside chance, and really unlikely IMO would be for Sunday the 18th. Newark might have a shot Sunday or Monday. But I do not see how the Park can get there Monday and it appears the pre-frontal trough and cold front are going to be charging south and east quickly Wednesday night and Thursday cutting off the flow of warm air into the region by mid-day Thursday and not allowing either Newark or the Park to get much above 82 or 83. That's my take at the moment given the latest guidance. And I think we are moving into a Autumn pattern pretty quickly that could also put an end to our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. What I'm saying is all subject to change as the models have been very poor and inconsistent for the last eight weeks, but that's how I see it now.

WX/PT

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Much of the region saw its coolest morning so far this season. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 45°
Allentown: 46°
Binghamton: 41°
Boston: 55°
Bridgeport: 50°
Danbury: 45°
Islip: 50°
New York City: 57°
Newark: 53°
Philadelphia: 58°
Poughkeepsie: 43°
Providence: 49°
Scranton: 46°
Westhampton: 40°
White Plains: 49°

The early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will return to close out the weekend and continue into early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth. Philadelphia and Newark have the best chance at approaching or reaching 90° during the peak of the warmth. New York City will likely top out in the middle or upper 80s.

In the longer range, there is greater than usual uncertainty, as extratropical Merbok, which will pound the Bering Sea and then Alaska's north shore through tomorrow, could impact the jet stream. Occasionally, such cyclones have set in motion a pattern evolution that has dislodged cold air that pours into the continental U.S. 1-2 weeks later. A classic example from the far more intense Nuri occurred in 2014. Nuri bombed out as it battered the Bering Sea region on November 9. Very cold air moved into the northeastern U.S. starting on November 15. Near record and even some record low temperatures occurred from November 18-22. Merbok will not reach Nuri's intensity, but the scenario of a strong cold shot to close out September and open October is plausible.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +20.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.666 today.

On September 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.024 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.044 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (2.0° above normal).

 

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Had a look in my data base and these are all the NYC readings of 90 or higher after 20th of September ... daily records are in bold type. The list goes into October. Also the list is by date which tends to give you the picture of how 90+ decreases in frequency going forward. 

9/21 __ 95 (1895) 94 (1914) 92 (1940)

9/22 __ 95 (1895) 95 (1914) 94 (1970) 94 (1980) 92 (1931)

9/23 __ 97 (1895) 93 (1970) 92 (1914) 91 (1941) 90 (1959) 90 (1961)

9/24 __ 91 (2017)

9/25 __ 90 (1970)

9/26 __ 91 (1881, 1970) 90 (1895)

9/27 __ 90 (1933)

9/28 __ (none, rec high 88 1881)

9/29 __ (none, rec high 88 1945)

9/30 __ (none, rec high 89 1986)

10/1 ___ (none, rec high 88 1927)

10/2 ___ 93 (2019) 90 (1927)

10/3 or later __ 94 (5th, 1941), 90 (6th, 1941), 91 (10th, 1939), 90 (17th, 1938) *

* these were all record highs, they are listed in date order from 3rd to 17th, dates without 90+ have records between 84 and 88. The latest 88F was Oct 22nd 1979. 

Unlike many climate indicators, this one tends to be weighted more towards earlier years in the period of record, possibly a by-product of site changes but the same trend is notable at Toronto which has not had the same types of site changes. A statistical fluke, or perhaps something to do with climate changes in source regions? Anyway, for what it's worth, the tendency to older records fades out gradually through October and in both November and December the frequency of recent record dates increases (especially with 1982, 1998, 2013 and then 2015 bulldozing the December records). 

The record before Sep 24 2017 was 89F from 1959 and the record before Oct 2, 2019 as shown was 90F in 1927. Many other years had 88 or 89 readings in late September and the median is about 85.

As Oct 5, 1941 was a notable outlier, the second highest on that date was 89F in 1922. The warmest on the date since 1941 is only 86 (1967), more recently 83 in 2007 and 2017. Some other notable very late warm records include 88F on Oct 6th, 1959, 88F Oct 7th, 1944, 87F on Oct 8, 2007, 86F on Oct 9, 1916, 87F on Oct 13, 1954, and 87F on Oct 16, 1897. The latest occurrence of 85F is Oct 23rd, 1947 and 84F Nov 1, 1950. 

Near-miss 89F have all been mentioned except for a few Sep 21-25 and those are 89F on Sep 22, 1872, Sep 25, 1881, and Sep 25, 1926, Sep 22, 1959, Sep 25, 2010, and Sep 23, 2019. 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny with near normal temperatures.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Some 80s are possible especially from central New Jersey southward. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 78°

Philadelphia: 83°

Much warmer air will arrive tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 76.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.4°; 15-Year: 78.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.6°; 15-Year: 79.4°

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another factor is how the record Bering Sea storm for September will influence the 500 mb pattern.

 

 

St. Paul Island recorded sustained winds of 55.2 mph yesterday. That was the highest figure since December 3, 2011 when 56 mph winds were recorded. It was the highest September figure since September 29, 1958 when sustained winds of 63 mph were measured.

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15 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It appears to me at this time that the potential for any more 90 degree temperatures at Central Park has rapidly diminished this afternoon. I'd say looking at the latest model data that the only outside chance, and really unlikely IMO would be for Sunday the 18th. Newark might have a shot Sunday or Monday. But I do not see how the Park can get there Monday and it appears the pre-frontal trough and cold front are going to be charging south and east quickly Wednesday night and Thursday cutting off the flow of warm air into the region by mid-day Thursday and not allowing either Newark or the Park to get much above 82 or 83. That's my take at the moment given the latest guidance. And I think we are moving into a Autumn pattern pretty quickly that could also put an end to our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. What I'm saying is all subject to change as the models have been very poor and inconsistent for the last eight weeks, but that's how I see it now.

WX/PT

Yeah the Thursday heat looks gone now. If ewr is going to hit 90 its probably tomorrow

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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(64/82) or +5.

Month to date is  72.8[+1.1].         Should be  72.8[+2.8] by the 25th.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today:    73-78, wind e. to s. to sw., clearing skies, 66 tomorrow AM.

66*(65%RH) here at 7am.      69* at 9am.      70* at 11am.       71* at Noon.       72* at 2pm.       73* at 3pm.      74* at 3:30pm.       Reached 76* at 5pm.        71* at 8pm.

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With Fiona likely heading out to sea how much longer will the current dry spell last?  Certainly nothing meaningful over the next 7 days.  Could be make it though the rest of September will only minimal rainfall <.50"?  I'd say it is possible to get close.  Maybe the closing 2-4 days can deliver something?  Certainly not seeing it before that.

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4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

With Fiona likely heading out to sea how much longer will the current dry spell last?  Certainly nothing meaningful over the next 7 days.  Could be make it though the rest of September will only minimal rainfall <.50"?  I'd say it is possible to get close.  Maybe the closing 2-4 days can deliver something?  Certainly not seeing it before that.

Monday and Thursday have chances but probably will be more isolated 

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72/ 60 off a low of 56.  Another stunning (weekend) day with sunny skies and temps in the mid /upper 70s.  Warm up Sun (9/18) and Mon (9/19) with the warmer spots with a shot at late season heat/90s.  Ridge balloons, centered near the TX/OK border and we ride the NE rim and with it some some scattered showers and a brief cool down Tue from the strong warmth before warming Wed (9/21) and Thu (9/22) with another shot at late season heat for the warmer spots. 

 

Strong front / trough come through Thu (timing to be worked out).  By Fri (9/23) - Mon (9/26) strong cooldown with coolest of the season (so far).  Beyond there warmup as riding builds into the EC  Tue (9/27) with deep trough into the GL.  Will see how much of the next cooldown gets east to close  the month.

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