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August 2022


Rtd208
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Euro 12Z EPS offers modest support to the op solution at day 10.  Worth watching with not much else going on.  Water is bathtub warm off the east coast and has been untouched so far this season.  Assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable this would have some potential.  System seeding this 10 day feature has persisted for 24-36 hours now.  We'll see.  High pressure would appear to be entrenched north of feature so if it can get going some reasonable expectation of the southeast U.S. threat.  Ten days away but gaining some model support last few cycles.

12Z EPS.jpg

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High of 93° at Newark away from the sea breeze. This is the 46th day reaching 90° as 2022 moves up to 3rd place. Last year was the only time that a 40+ day season had more inches of snow than 90° days.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Seasonal Snowfall
1 2010 54 47.9
2 1993 49 28.8
3 2022 46 17.9
4 1988 43 22.8
5 2021 41 45.7
- 2002 41 3.6
- 1991 41 21.5
6 2016 40 32.6
- 1983 40 31.0
- 1959 40 17.8
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Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. A few areas saw thunderstorms. Drought-stricken Boston, which had its lowest May 1-August 25 rainfall on record, picked up 0.41" of rain.

The remainder of August will likely see generally above normal temperatures. Additional 90° or above days are possible in parts of the region.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was -5.64 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.210 today.

On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.647 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.586 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (3.1° above normal).

Finally, on August 25, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.174 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 95% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 5.000 million square kilometers for the 13th consecutive year. The highest 25% bound is 4.791 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 4.486 million square kilometers.

 

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Newark still the driest summer on record with a few days to go. As we follow the driest conditions along the South Shore JFK is 2nd driest. ISP comes in at 4th driest.


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 4.43 6
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1966 3.89 0
2 2022 5.14 5
3 1999 5.56 0
4 1965 5.68 0
5 1993 5.71 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1966 3.67 0
2 2005 3.74 0
3 1988 4.52 0
4 2022 4.75 5
5 1993 4.91 0
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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Drought will continue. GFS OP has no rain for its entire run. 

Some moisture entrainment from the potential tropical system would be our best chance of a widespread soaking event. But these forecast tracks before a system actually develops are very low skill. Plenty of amplitude to the pattern with the SE Ridge/WAR linking up with the -NAO block. So the continuing above normal temperatures will dry things out even more without a significant rainfall event.

 

63BC6F03-EF68-4CDB-82FE-DD11A4455D65.thumb.png.4f007c58e913bef7498ec83950f881e2.png

6B51E672-E02A-4E13-BCFC-2CF068A6811A.thumb.png.a20b6026e763e36a2351ec4bf4ad4a64.png

7244C8FA-05FD-47F4-A71B-D039AC44799B.thumb.png.49939cf03eb7a3de46d1f80dc3f58f93.png

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The last 5 days of August are averaging  82degs.(75/90) or +7.5.

Month to date is  79.3[+2.9].        August should end at 79.7[+3.6].

Reached 87 here late yesterday.

Today:   83-88, wind n. to ne., clouds late, 74 tomorrow AM.

Rainfall at 25% of normal on all the models for the next 10 days.    Normal is about 1.4".

The EURO 10-Day TS, ie. Danielle, Probability:

1662422400-GbAo02jha7o.png

76*(74%RH) here at 7am.       78* at 8am.        80* at 9pm.       82* at 11pm.      83* at Noon.       84* at 1pm       Holding at 84* at 3pm.       86*(64%RH) feels like 93 at 4pm.       Reached 87*(62%RH) around 5:30pm, feels like 94*.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly  cloudy and very warm.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. A few hot spots could reach 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 86°

Newark: 90°

Philadelphia: 91°

The remainder of August will likely see generally warmer than normal conditions.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.9°; 15-Year: 81.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.3°; 15-Year: 83.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.1°

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87 / 56 and its looking like on the way to another 90 for many in the region today.   A bit cooler Sun (8/28) before warmer air builds back in by Mon (8/29). Overall warm to hot at times pattern continues through the month and into next month.  A two day cool down remains likely Thu (9/1) and Fri (9/2) before warmer air returns next weekend and for labor day.  Still have tropical waves on most overnight models in some for or another the first week.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark still the driest summer on record with a few days to go. As we follow the driest conditions along the South Shore JFK is 2nd driest. ISP comes in at 4th driest.


 

 

Always forget to bookmark that site, but id be curiou s of 80 degree days and where we stand at the major locations and stations.

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7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Always forget to bookmark that site, but id be curiou s of 80 degree days and where we stand at the major locations and stations.

What site is that with the time-series summaries? The one @bluewave posts. I would love to find out the driest 60-day/90-day period for each of climate sites around here.

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