Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,174
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    JDinCT
    Newest Member
    JDinCT
    Joined

August 2022


 Share

Recommended Posts

The Southern Plains will finally get a break in the record breaking heat. Our first closer to normal temperatures in a while this week. Then the models have a warm up for the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. 

Summer to date 

F291516C-83F0-40A9-9722-A352E495BCBD.gif.1542307a2a38594865f80e50c4976f0e.gif
 

Forecast for the 2nd half of August 

37D1D0D8-603E-49B0-9739-18B30B797044.thumb.png.29c01a983e17c7d89f8f26de738819ab.png

5BE51AB3-B6CD-4F5B-A487-4D996A9F1865.thumb.png.694bc41bc6d9564aad75ce2f58d63d52.png

DEB85EDA-34B9-480F-8C1F-A62CC635B5CB.thumb.png.0f4c14b40f79c09b9de59f28e0c99fb9.png

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Southern Plains will finally get a break in the record breaking heat. Our first closer to normal temperatures in a while this week. Then the models have a warm up for the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. 

this is an odd way for us to get heat but i'll take it 

eps_T850a_us_fh138-360.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

80 / 53 after a low of 54.  SE wind and clouds moving through but should clear up later today and more mid 80s. Caught between two ridges and now way out as Trough cuts off later today through Wed (8/17), and maybe in such a way it cuts off the rain or most rain S of SNE.  Models dry now but still wouldnt rule out surprise rains Tue night (8/16) into Wed (8/17).


Rockies / Plains ridge pushing into Pac NW, Western Atlantic Ridge being pushing west by next weekend Sat (8/21).  Warmer, more humid southerly flow develops and with it some daily rain chances.  Humid and overall warmer to hot at times (90s or better) perhaps late season heatwave criteria (8/22-24) last 10 days of the month.  Way out there but could home brewed tropics awaken.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The drought pretty much guarantees we'll see many late season 90s.

The 95+ stuff might be done but the near 90 heat will stick around for a while. I also see a rapid summer to cold season transition. 

Very active fire season too if we get into mid September with little rain. 

  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We haven’t had any 100° days after August 19th in the post-2010 climate period. But the warm spots like Newark have averaged 1-2 days of 95° or above. The average number of 90°+ days later in the season is 5-6. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Aug 20 to Oct 2
Missing Count
2021-10-2 3 0
2020-10-2 0 0
2019-10-2 1 0
2018-10-2 5 0
2017-10-2 0 0
2016-10-2 1 0
2015-10-2 3 0
2014-10-2 2 0
2013-10-2 1 0
2012-10-2 0 0
2011-10-2 0 0
2010-10-2 4 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Aug 20 to Oct 2
Missing Count
2021-10-2 7 0
2020-10-2 4 0
2019-10-2 5 0
2018-10-2 8 0
2017-10-2 4 0
2016-10-2 9 0
2015-10-2 8 0
2014-10-2 5 0
2013-10-2 4 0
2012-10-2 3 0
2011-10-2 0 0
2010-10-2 10 0
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Ehh, not sure about that. The near 100 temps are done but I think we have a few more 90s left. 

Yeah since 2015 it's hard to bet against the endless summer pattern like bluewave alludes to.  And it doesn't necessarily have to be in the 90's for it to be AN once we get into September.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ive been noticing an increase of tree damage the last couple of weeks(large branches, even some downed trees) probably from the gusty winds following the CF thurs/fri 

between the drought and laternflies, i think we have a serious problem if we get any storm that produces 40+mph winds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am counting 17 90+ days so far for Central Park this season and I think they're going end up with at least 21. None this week as near to below normal temperatures continue. It looks as though the surface winds will be more light variable or southerly at first as heat and humidity try to rebuild late next weekend into the following week so 90+ is unlikely at first. But later in the month the ensembles have come around to a warmer look over the last few run cycles so I do think eventually the Park will see 4-7 more days of 90+ weather perhaps including another heatwave.

WX/PT

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging  77degs.(84/70) or +1.

Month to date is  80.6[+3.6].       Should be  79.3[+2.7] by the 23rd.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today:  77-81, wind e., variable clouds, 67 tomorrow AM.

No rain till the weekend?

0Z has two suspicious areas to watch for hurricane development, but already the 06Z has never heard the word hurricane.

70*(65%RH) here at 7am.       74* at 9am.      75* at Noon.       77*  at 3pm.      Reached 82* at 6:30pm.        74* at 10pm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I am counting 17 90+ days so far for Central Park this season and I think they're going end up with at least 21. None this week as near to below normal temperatures continue. It looks as though the surface winds will be more light variable or southerly at first as heat and humidity try to rebuild late next weekend into the following week so 90+ is unlikely at first. But later in the month the ensembles have come around to a warmer look over the last few run cycles so I do think eventually the Park will see 4-7 more days of 90+ weather perhaps including another heatwave.

WX/PT

First legit drought in the metro area since 2002 and it’s getting worse, soil moisture is low as can be: 

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

First legit drought in the metro area since 2002 and it’s getting worse, soil moisture is low as can be: 

As far as I can tell, there's little help to the drought for the foreseeable future. Eventually, perhaps, a tropical system or remnants thereof move into the area and causes flooding. But so far, we do not even seem to be able to get any development. Odds are that that changes over the next three to four weeks.

WX/PT

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...