Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,276
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    weatherman27
    Newest Member
    weatherman27
    Joined

August 2022


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Lol its going to be 95 plus in central jersey for 2 if not 3 days and one may approach 100

 

Are people downplaying  heat..how jaded

We have 8 seconds less daylight today and people are already wearing jackets. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hotter air will be returning starting tomorrow. The heat could peak this week with temperatures rising well into the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +26.28 (old record: +15.23, 2010).

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.100 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.609 (RMM).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Quite a difference from a few days ago when it looked like 3-4 days of 95-100 degrees

If the frontal boundary were to remain to our north and west and stall out before ever reaching us it would still be possible for us to have that. It just does not seem likely at this point in time. Then again, the modeling isn't very good though the best of them, the Euro, has been the hottest.

WX/PT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

August 1st record low in NYC is 59 set in 1964...its tied the highest record low for any day...record lows are down hill from here...2022 won't see any of that kind of cool...just the opposite...Aug 1st to 21st 1964 was one of the coolest on record with nine days in the 50's and three record lows...a few near misses too...the last ten days were warm to hot...1962-1965 have 14 record or near record lows on record...

here is something we will never see again for one August let alone four straight Augusts...

 

1962-65 aug.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tonight of everything I've seen the CMC makes the most sense. The Friday front never really gets here. The storms out ahead of it do but by the time the front would move through it's pretty much washing out. Saturday and Sunday are extremely hot then maybe a cold front Sunday night and back into the heat next Wednesday for one day. I would not be surprised if Central Park didn't quite make it to 90 today or Wednesday. I think for the Park the 90 degree readings start on Thursday, we'll see.

WX/PT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 86°

Very warm to occasionally hot weather will continue into the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.2°; 15-Year: 87.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 87.9°

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging  86degs.(76/96) or +9.        Crazy---but not for the GFS.       It then dips BN and cloudy next Wednesday.

Reached 78 here late yesterday.

Today:  88-91, wind w. to n.,  p. sunny, late TS???, 74 tomorrow AM

71*(99%RH) here at 7am.       80*(77%RH) at Noon.      83* at 1pm.       84* at 3:30pm.       88* at 5pm.      90*(60%RH) at 5:30pm.       Reached 94*(42%RH) near 7pm.       87* at 9pm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll be hot but nothing historic. It was hotter in mid July. 100F will be rare this time around. 

I see now we are above 90 Saturday and Sunday and the storm chances reduced to scattered afternoon

 

This could be a 7-8 day heatwave for some. Ive already had like 18 of the last 21 above 90

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

I see now we are above 90 Saturday and Sunday and the storm chances reduced to scattered afternoon

 

This could be a 7-8 day heatwave for some. Ive already had like 18 of the last 21 above 90

The GFS extended the heatwave to next Monday and the Euro to next Wednesday. The models now stall the front north of l-80. So this looks like one of our most intense August heatwaves in years starting today.

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GFS extended the heatwave to next Monday and the Euro to next Wednesday. The models now stall the front north of l-80. So this looks like one of our most intense August heatwaves in years starting today.

New run front stalls north of I-80

28A719DB-C166-4D95-9A6E-AD42288AC144.thumb.png.420339f90fdc991596668cc39db7b179.png
 

Old run too weak with WAR/SE Ridge

EB07D94E-11E3-4BAF-83FA-19DB2BABC24F.thumb.png.f9935e7822f5658e0f45a93751cc48ee.png

 

 

Would this mean more dry weather? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

76/71 here after a late high of 77 yesterday.  Next heatwave is on today for most location with mainly some lower and mid 90s.  Warm/dry / hot spots could see 95+ today.  More of the same Wed (8/3) much of the day then the blast of >20c 850 temps blast in later in the day with Thu (8/4) ad Fri (8/5) with temperatures surging into the mid . upper 90s with some of the warmer and hot spots up to 100.  The Western Atlantic Ridge is building west again by Friday and encompasses much of the area by Saturday with the Rockies and Plains Ridge building and expanding into the North East.  They dont fully merge per latest forecasting and create a weakness and boundary between them.  Look for Florida style weather by later Friday (8/5) and into this weekend Sat (8/6) and Sun (8/7).  When and if its sunny more heat and 90s potential each daybut couds / storms could get in the way.  Will need to see how and where the front sets up and crawls east.  Beyond there by next week Mon (8/8) the front looks to clear and some more heat , with continues pop storms chances through Wed (8/10) before front / trough move into the northeast by 8/11 and 8/12,  Way woud expect overall warm and to at times hot as more of the heat from the Rockies/Plains builds east and may meet with the WAR.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Would this mean more dry weather? 

Even if the boundary sets up north and west this weekend, we should see much increased Florida style pop up storms later Friday through and into Mon (8/8).  I would be surprised if there werent some decent down pours this weekend / flood watches.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Even if the boundary sets up north and west this weekend, we should see much increased Florida style pop up storms later Friday through and into Mon (8/8).  I would be surprised if there werent some decent down pours this weekend / flood watches.

Hopefully. We really need the rain 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Allsnow said:

Hopefully. We really need the rain 

It has been extraordinarily dry and this week will only add to that.    Would have been nice if yesterday was a soaker wth the way it was locked in clouds all day.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Would this mean more dry weather? 

With the front stalling to our north now, we’ll probably get scattered convection along the prefrontal trough and sea breeze front into early next week. But the location of these features on any given day will probably come down to the 12 hr daily hi res meso model forecasts. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do not think Central Park will get to 90 today, tomorrow, and maybe not even on Thursday. Thursday a 50% chance. The winds are now forecast to be more southerly right off of the relatively cool (but not so cool--mid/upper 70s) Atlantic Ocean. The models are generally in agreement on this. If the Park is to hit 90 they probably have to do so by 1 or 2PM the latest. Afternoon onshore winds, storms forming along seabreeze fronts perhaps. But now with the Euro more and more washing out the front on Friday night, I don't even think we're going to get much precipitation then. I think it's mostly scattered to isolated in nature and while there could be locally heavy amounts it would be very confined to locations where storms do occur. Friday through Monday the Park should hit 90 but not without a struggle. Then cooler air arrives next week Tues or Wed.

WX/PT

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not think Central Park will get to 90 today, tomorrow, and maybe not even on Thursday. Thursday a 50% chance. The winds are now forecast to be more southerly right off of the relatively cool (but not so cool--mid/upper 70s) Atlantic Ocean. The models are generally in agreement on this. If the Park is to hit 90 they probably have to do so by 1 or 2PM the latest. Afternoon onshore winds, storms forming along seabreeze fronts perhaps. But now with the Euro more and more washing out the front on Friday night, I don't even think we're going to get much precipitation then. I think it's mostly scattered to isolated in nature and while there could be locally heavy amounts it would be very confined to locations where storms do occur. Friday through Monday the Park should hit 90 but not without a struggle. Then cooler air arrives next week Tues or Wed.

WX/PT

Frustrating that the models took away the bigger rain potential for friday into the weekend. Now it's just looking like isolated stuff as you said. I'm glad we got the half inch of rain here early yesterday, but we need so much more. It has been incredibly dry for so long, and it will dry out and go back to being parched very quickly the next couple days. Not good that the desperately needed more significant rains might not be coming.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Frustrating that the models took away the bigger rain potential for friday into the weekend. Now it's just looking like isolated stuff as you said. I'm glad we got the half inch of rain here early yesterday, but we need so much more. It has been incredibly dry for so long, and it will dry out and go back to being parched very quickly the next couple days. Not good that the desperately needed more significant rains might not be coming.

GFS still gives us .75 to 1" friday afternoon and evening

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...