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45 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yep and storm motion is slow.  Places likely getting drenched.

Yeah, the steering flow under 500 mb is pretty much non existent. So these storms rain themselves out in place. While there could some hail contamination, radar estimates have several areas over 2.00” in NE PA.


0C14657C-B4D9-49C6-AB19-C97C7DFBC5F6.thumb.png.24d61e416933eeb4617cbf03e6d25846.png
 


90172CAB-9C17-494C-8895-7DB622740472.thumb.jpeg.14ece60eee93efe321776c83a53763c5.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the steering flow under 500 mb is pretty much non existent. So these storms rain themselves out in place. While there could some hail contamination, radar estimates have several areas over 2.00” in NE PA.


0C14657C-B4D9-49C6-AB19-C97C7DFBC5F6.thumb.png.24d61e416933eeb4617cbf03e6d25846.png

Yeah, exactly.  Plot shows it well.  Per radar they are raining themselves out in place and then new ones form.  Places in NEPA are getting drenched.  Not over a widespread area but there are locations that are going to end up with hefty totals and LOCAL flash flooding.   We need to get storms to pop over NJ because the ones in NEPA are not destined to MOVE into NJ.

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Parts of the region will see showers and thunderstorms overnight. Afterward, a warm weekend lies ahead with temperatures generally rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall.

The SOI was +17.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.592 today.

On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.815 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.043 (RMM).

 

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15 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

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Incredible presentation on radar with the boundaries present. Been sitting right over me for eons now. 

was in Brick today by Herbitsville...It started raining around 430 from a small cell...Its now huge...

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