Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,182
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Benjamn3
    Newest Member
    Benjamn3
    Joined

August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west 

  • Like 2
  • Confused 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We can always go higher.

GFSNE_prec_precacc_180.png

hahaha...   drought                                   over!

altho, technically we probably need two of those.   but like you intimate, if it is going to go that far, it may actually synergistically go ballistic and turn into a real fun headlines like,  "After months of drought nearing critical, New England floods catastrophically" 

who's with me! 

Actually, though ... my gut tells me this is the typical 'seen through the magnifier' range of the GFS, and that closed pig it seems to emerge rather than actually arrive there ( that's a potential hint -), will end up being just a general S conveyor up the EC.  The weekends interlude into 70s/50 chamber will give way to a subtropical sky and that big QPF spreads out over three or four days/less. 

That is a very late March look though, to have that kind of sultan low plunk in there -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west 

To be honest when they go west we don’t even really get it up here. It’s more like PA/NY.  SE flow really isn’t our thing, it’s either Adirondacks down through Catskills…or Whites down through Dendrite and SNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To be honest when they go west we don’t even really get it up here. It’s more like PA/NY.  SE flow really isn’t our thing, it’s either Adirondacks down through Catskills…or Whites down through Dendrite and SNE.

Maybe more SC VT . You can totally envision the initial warm frontal push from the ESE drops some lighter rains/ showers over SNE and the boundary gets hung up right along the Apps with training., flooding downpours while we in SNE are left with  Bermuda Blues and spot quick hitting showers. That’s how I envision it ending up 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

mm.. one can envision whatever is needed to fulfill one's narrative - .. I mean, this engagement is not exactly held responsible to answering to a consortium of accreditation.  lol

But, the rip and read GGEM and GFS and their blend, is a straight up Nor'easter entry into an event that then takes a day and half to turn into left over murk.  I don't even see much way to get the flow SE away from the coastal areas with that high N of the region pressing east, while that slowly busts open through those two days.  It really more like just winds down to 74/68 with nimbus debris...

I mean the whole thing still looks suspicious to me.   They are way over deepening that thing..>They both seem to be responding to the non-linear wave function in manifesting that thing  - not descriptively delivering wave mechanics into that region very well... Therefrom, then forgetting or ignoring the geophysical memo that there aren't enough baroclinic gradients, it's basically a December coastal storm 40F warmer...  yeah okay -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west 

WAR flex and we get soaked by this version of the firehose.

image.png.0d99ec7c8c6c650cb065e9ee4af53f0c.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe more SC VT . You can totally envision the initial warm frontal push from the ESE drops some lighter rains/ showers over SNE and the boundary gets hung up right along the Apps with training., flooding downpours while we in SNE are left with  Bermuda Blues and spot quick hitting showers. That’s how I envision it ending up 

I could see it.  The 06z GFS was sort of like that.  It’ll depend on the mid/upper level low.  We do see it go both ways sometimes.  Could pour in SNE into Dendrite and up the foothills of Maine.  Could also blast a warm front through us all and boundary stalls with flooding from like PA through Binghamton and into NNY if it’s super occluded.  In the winter those are the systems where Utica gets like 30” while warm sector is into Maine.

At the very least, it’s some synoptic weather to follow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west 

Nah, this is the one that finally soaks us.  How do I know?  Next Tuesday/Wednesday is Maine Public Lands' peer review field trip, this year in the western Maine mountains.  These trips have drawn some interesting wx in the past:  ripping TS with blowdowns in 1997 (Mahoosucs) and 2007 (upper Kennebec Valley), thoroughly doused by the remains of Katrina in 2005 at Round Pond (on the Allagash), rainy 50s west of Rangeley in 2010, rain in the pines Downeast in 2015 and 2018 (at the same red pines), dancing with Isaias 2 years ago.  (1997 was in June, all the others in August.)
We can't miss, this time.  :o

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...