wthrmn654 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Current conditions: soaked had to toe after 10 mintues of being outside mowing..... yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- An upper level low is slowly drifting south from Ontario toward the Great Lakes. The upper level flow out ahead of the low over our area remains mostly zonal, with weak energy passing through. At the surface, a warm front and any associated isolated showers had lifted just E of the CWA. Early to mid afternoon should remain mostly dry ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a few tstms entering western/central PA should moves east and expand in coverage/intensity, reaching western portions of the CWA between 21Z-22Z per 14Z HRRR which has fairly good handle on that activity over PA. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2000) and deep layer shear (35-40kt 0-6 km bulk shear) as this activity approaches will support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat damaging wind gusts. Expect two separate rounds of storms, one via the activity approaching from PA, another passing mainly across the interior this evening. Coverage looks to be scattered given H7 inversion to be overcome, possibly another developing this afternoon at H8-9 via daytime heating/WAA. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has the lower Hudson Valley and S CT under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and the rest of the area in a marginal risk, but could see justification for including NE NJ and the NYC area in that as well. Highs will be in the mid 80s for most, with the NYC/NJ metro reaching the lower/mid 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will allow for max apparent temperatures in the upper 90s. An isolated brief apparent temperature reading of 100 is possible in the NJ Turnpike corridor of NE NJ. With just one day of apparent temperatures at or above 95 and any 100 degree apparent temperature reading being very isolated, there continues to be no heat headlines after collaboration with neighboring offices. Winds become NW-W briefly behind the cold front and drier air briefly advects into the area. After midnight the entire area should be dry. Lows will be in the mid 60s farther north and west where the cold front will work through first. Across NYC/NJ metro area and Long Island lows will be in the low to mid 70s. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Looks like we have to hope this line holds strong on the march east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Euro vs rgem, hrdps, nams Euro not backing down… .75 for a good amount of the area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro not backing down… .75 for a good amount of the area Mostly tomorrow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 91 here..could start new heatwave tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2022 Author Share Posted July 28, 2022 6 hours ago, Poker2015 said: Would the .48" of rain I got last night change my area back to D0? Or need alot more than that. That wouldn’t be enough considering how many locations are having one of their driest Julys after a dry June. It’s tough to break a drought with scattered convection. So many 90° and 100° days really dry things out fast this time of year. We generally need a tropical system or a super soaker non tropical event like August 2011 to break a summer drought. Plus our deficit started in June with some spots at 25% of normal rainfall. So the driest areas are running -5.00 to -6.00 inches below normal since June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro not backing down… .75 for a good amount of the area i wish it had support from literally any other model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Mostly tomorrow though Some decent storms in eastern PA right now. At least a slight chance that we'll get hit by one of those in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 On 7/27/2022 at 1:27 PM, forkyfork said: these mid levels are brutal for convection The freezing level at 550mb is pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Some decent storms in eastern PA right now. At least a slight chance that we'll get hit by one of those in a couple hours. Yeah looking pretty good...fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i wish it had support from literally any other model so the 18z nam and hrrr improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Some decent storms in eastern PA right now. At least a slight chance that we'll get hit by one of those in a couple hours. Skies getting ready to open up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Omg that green lawn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 HRRR and NAM3km are misses this evening and show a complete collapse for tomorrow's event just as it arrives here---say 10pm +/- an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Sky did open up here. No thunder. I don't have a rain gauge due to logistical issues with trees and such, but I'd have to estimate 0.50 - 0.75", maybe more. I'll have to see if I can find radar estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Nice storm here which has deposited 0.65” of rain. Came with a nice looking shelf cloud and a few CTG strikes to make it interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: Yeah looking pretty good...fingers crossed The storm moving into Hunterdon County is on track to hit our area. Hopefully it'll hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 I can smell the fail already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Looks like a storm just to my north… I’m watching it as i bbq… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 andd it disappears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 High of 88 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Finally past half an inch today with .15” this morning, .60” for the month now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 86 the high here but very humid. Storms seem to be weakening as they head east. last night .18 inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Tomorrow will be a similar day. Temperatures will generally remain near or above normal through the remainder of the month. There is potential for significant heat to expand into the region during the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +15.63. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.147 today. On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.564 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.486 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: The storm moving into Hunterdon County is on track to hit our area. Hopefully it'll hold together. I missed that one but they got some just to my north Looks like a more potent will get imby around 730 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Absolutely pathetic today…a few drops 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: so the 18z nam and hrrr improved Icon as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: I missed that one but they got some just to my north Looks like a more potent will get imby around 730 Unfortunately but not surprisingly they've been falling apart as they move east. Just a light shower here. Thank goodness I got the .75 early this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2022 Author Share Posted July 28, 2022 Lake Superior will be the only unusually cool spot surrounded by near record early August heat. 3rd coldest Lake Superior behind 2014 and 1996 in late July since 1995 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150107/a-lake-of-superior-cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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