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June 2022


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60 hours of some heat with many areas getting into the low 90s today and Sun (6/26).  Front comes through early enough Monday (6/27) to spoil the hat trick (heat wave) for many.  Friday came close to starting one in many places but tipped out in the upper 80s.  Cooler Tue (6/28) - Wed (6/29) before the seasons first official heatwave looks likely, especially for the hot spots sas we end June and open the long July 4th weekend.  850 temps look to range >16c by Thu Jun 30th and >18c Fri Jul 1st and Sat Jul 2nd.  

4th of July : GFS gas cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) while the ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July.  Will need to work out those details/timing.  Beyond there its looking like another blast of the western furnace is on tap by the 7th.  First 10 days of July look normal / bas above normal with opportunity for >3 days of 90+ on the current guidance.

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

surprised it hasn't been wetter with that trough near us...we've lucked out in that regard.

Could pick up a decent soaker on Monday (6/27) for the area with the front coming through. 

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27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

surprised it hasn't been wetter with that trough near us...we've lucked out in that regard.

MPO was the big rainfall winner coming in at the 16th wettest June so far.


 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2006 12.10 0
2 1928 11.16 0
3 1972 10.14 0
4 2003 9.63 0
5 1973 9.41 0
6 1916 9.26 0
7 2013 9.19 0
8 2015 8.77 0
9 1922 8.73 0
10 1917 8.61 0
11 1941 8.02 0
12 2009 7.78 0
13 1932 7.08 0
14 1903 7.03 0
15 1925 7.02 0
16 2022 6.98 6
17 1948 6.55 0
18 1906 6.49 0
19 1989 6.38 0
20 1904 6.31 0
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Past Junes EWR 90 degree days.  EWR should be 5 by the 30th much in line with the past 12 years excluding 2010 and last year.

 

June:
2021 : 13
2020: 5
2019: 4
2018: 5
2017: 5
2016: 3
2015: 4
2014: 2
2013: 4
2012: 6
2011: 4
2010: 13

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s been dry so that helps the park with less transpiration from the vegetation. Just another point of proof that the numbers are off being in a virtual forest.  

 

They cut away a ton of the junk around it too so I have wondered if maybe more its a sensor issue now

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The cooler subtropical  Atlantic and lack of a SE Ridge this month is a shift from the persistent La Niña background state at least on the Atlantic side.

 

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i am surprised it made it to 90 in central park does not feel that bad due to comfortable dewpoints in the low 50's

Made it to 91 here but now 80 after the sea breeze started. That lifted the dew points up to the low 60s. 

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Temperatures reached the 90s in many parts of the region with Newark topping out at 96° this afternoon. Tomorrow will be another hot day. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. A few middle 90s are possible. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday.

In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 has now moved into the region. Portland could see the thermometer make a run at 100° tomorrow. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +14.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.700 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.467 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).

 

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