Christmas Storm VI

[CoolBreeze]

A reminder to get your boards out and level. If you come up with a total you have to be able to prove it on a board. Drifts don't count. T

Could a link be posted (or info provided) that describes how the board should be positioned, e.g., level with the ground?, how far away from structures/trees?, etc.)

TIA

[earlwx]

That is not addressing Atlanta entirely..............Thanks....:snowman::snowman:

Dude, read the thread..

Atlanta is going to get less than Gainesville and points northeastward... thats almost a given this time around.

[Wow]

Still lighter than 18z. What's up with that? Why am I freaking out? Should I freak out?

Freak on your own accord. I'm on a mission to get the 1" QPF line back over this way.

[FoothillsNC]

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)

By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.

Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 10"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.

Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

[NCBlizzard]

Could a link be posted (or info provided) that describes how the board should be positioned, e.g., level with the ground?, how far away from structures/trees?, etc.)

TIA

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=snow_measurement

[Buddy]

A reminder to get your boards out and level. If you come up with a total you have to be able to prove it on a board. Drifts don't count. T

Thanks, man, almost forgot, after wrapping all that stuff whiteboard out and in position, not that I think I'm gonna end up with anything worth measuring

[strongwxnc]

I'm with you John!

Freak on your own accord. I'm on a mission to get the 1" QPF line back over this way.

[oconeexman]

Could a link be posted (or info provided) that describes how the board should be positioned, e.g., level with the ground?, how far away from structures/trees?, etc.)

TIA

get a 2x12 if you have one aand put in open space and watch it pile up...that's my plan

[Isopycnic]

That is not addressing Atlanta entirely..............Thanks....:snowman::snowman:

Time for a timeout... I think.

[packbacker]

Interesting hpc diagnostic discussion.

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS

LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND

THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY

AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z

SREF MEAN COMPROMISE.

Great, so essentially the last 3 runs of the GFS they are throwing out. The other models, GGEM, RGEM, NAM are not as juicy.

[NCBlizzard]

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday.......

Hope your mom is ok. Really appreciate it robert! Heres to a good snow storm here and everywhere

[WidreMann]

Great, so essentially the last 3 runs of the GFS they are throwing out. The other models, GGEM, RGEM, NAM are not as juicy.

They're actually still pretty decent and trended majorly west. I don't know what the HPC will have left to hang their hat on.

And what's funny is that they admit the models are *still* too weak with the southern stream s/w, yet don't want to go for a stronger storm. Go figure.

[oconeexman]

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)

By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.

Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 12"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.

Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

Thx Robert for your time, my thoughts and prayers to you and your family! Hope all is well in the end!!!

[Cold Rain]

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)

By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.

Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 10"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.

Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

Thanks for all the updates, Robert. Your mom and family will be in our prayers tonight.

[CLTwx]

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)

By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.

Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 10"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.

Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

Robert: Fantastic breakdowns of the meteorlogical/geographical implications. Parting shot after the Euro!?!? Historical folks...take lots of pics/vids!

[Lookout]

That is not addressing Atlanta entirely..............Thanks....:snowman::snowman:

Welcome to 5 posts a day.

[LovingGulfLows]

RUC still shows a band of very heavy precip. over Alabama 15z....it is even larger then the last RUC run. It even shows a small area is INTENSE snow in the middle of it.

Click here to see.

[Wow]

Robert, I'm on your line of thinking 100 percent. Latest RUC is phasing a bit quicker as the southern s/w is a touch slower after the nothern s/w falls in behind it. THus a sharper trough, faster phasing, and surface low will bomb earlier. It keeps getting better.

Prayers to your mother as well. And Merry Christmas!

[brettjrob]

RUC still shows a band of very heavy precip. over Alabama 15z....it is even larger then the last RUC run. It even shows a small area is INTENSE snow in the middle of it.

Click here to see.

Yeah, the latest hi-res models are all looking quite promising for N AL, at least relative to earlier expectations. Latest HRRR has 2-4" across the northern couple rows of counties, and the RUC continues to look more impressive. I can only assume this is good news downstream over N GA and SE TN as well.

[phil882]

Here are my thoughts... but will likely update at some point tonight (too excited to sleep...). I agree with Robert that we are seeing this amplify even further than what the 00z model have been depicting. the RUC is actually looking like folks in WNC might benefit the moist form long duration snowfall as the reflectivity shows this area is the first to get on the action and enjoys a nearly stationary line of snow from 13z to the end of its period, in which it looks like there are very heavy reflectivity returns in TN heading over to WNC. Look for a major map revision later tonight if this looks to be coming to fruition.

http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local.html

Map:

[AirNelson39]

Just got out of the floor from passing out after reading Roberts post, in shock right now. Prob won't sleep tonight. Good luck everyone and Merry Christmas!

[dwagner88]

I was getting worried here, but the RUC has really perked me up. If it is correct, I should be getting heavy, gulf-fed snowfall 9 hours from now. Anything over a trace would make this the largest Christmas snowfall for Chattanooga since the 60's.

[oconeexman]

Here are my thoughts... but will likely update at some point tonight (too excited to sleep...). I agree with Robert that we are seeing this amplify even further than what the 00z model have been depicting. the RUC is actually looking like folks in WNC might benefit the moist form long duration snowfall as the reflectivity shows this area is the first to get on the action and enjoys a nearly stationary line of snow from 13z to the end of its period, in which it looks like there are very heavy reflectivity returns in TN heading over to WNC. Look for a major map revision later tonight if this looks to be coming to fruition.

http://blizzard.atms...apin/local.html

I'm thinking you're going to have to shift everything southwest, NeGa and Nw SC should get in on the heavy banding early and often if everything holds to form.

Still a good map and appreciate your disco Phil!

[TheVille]

Thanks Foothills

Probably won't sleep tonight

Anyways,

Merry Christmas Everyone

[BullCityWx]

21z SREF is EXTREMELY bullish on snow accums

[Wow]

21z SREF is EXTREMELY bullish on snow accums

bout time. where are you getting your data?

[DopplerWx]

Ok I feel worried all of a sudden. Is it possible that we get screwed in the central/eastern carolinas by mixing with rain or getting dry slotted. Idk. I just feel worried. Seems like WNC is in the sweet spot.

[beanskip]

So, how do you say "Merry Christmas" in Korean?

[BullCityWx]

bout time. where are you getting your data?

Accuwx pro.

[brettjrob]

I was getting worried here, but the RUC has really perked me up. If it is correct, I should be getting heavy, gulf-fed snowfall 9 hours from now. Anything over a trace would make this the largest Christmas snowfall for Chattanooga since the 60's.

03z HRRR says we're both in good shape:

I'm getting pretty pumped, but at the same time, I've been burned by last-minute encouraging signs on the RUC and other rapid-update models a few times too many.