DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It appears to me the low is starting to take on a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RAH is going 3-6 for Southern Pines. Could the fail zone come to an end? If the latest qpf maps are right maybe more like 6-8" at least, I am thinking this thing is gonna crush any temp issues most everywhere and the deform band that sets up over central and eastern NC is gonna be something we havent seen in awhile. When I read stuff like this my eyes tear up, I couldnt write a better setup for my area to get just destroyed than this someone from Goldsboro up to EC is gonna get 12"+ maybe more much more if this thing really goes nuts....... from ILM THE ATLANTIC SURFACE CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS POINTING TO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THESE WATERS. THEREFORE...WHEN LOW PRESSURE... CURRENTLY JUST BEGINNING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVES OFF THE COAST OF FL/GA THIS EVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ALSO...FGEN IN THE H8-7 LAYER IS ALSO POINTING TO MORE INTENSE BANDING OF SNOW ON THE W SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE 150 MILES E OF CAPE FEAR BY END OF PERIOD... DRAWING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES N AND UP THE COAST. MODEL PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE CRITICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH THE COLUMN COOLING SHARPLY... LASTLY AT THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to us and happy birthday to me lol. Woke up to a wow and 4-8" wow what change for the better. Guess it's time to check out what's been going on the last couple of hours while I tried to sleep. Apparently a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the latest qpf maps are right maybe more like 6-8" at least, I am thinking this thing is gonna crush any temp issues most everywhere and the deform band that sets up over central and eastern NC is gonna be something we havent seen in awhile. When I read stuff like this my eyes tear up, I couldnt write a better setup for my area to get just destroyed than this someone from Goldsboro up to EC is gonna get 12"+ maybe more much more if this thing really goes nuts....... from ILM THE ATLANTIC SURFACE CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS POINTING TO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THESE WATERS. THEREFORE...WHEN LOW PRESSURE... CURRENTLY JUST BEGINNING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVES OFF THE COAST OF FL/GA THIS EVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ALSO...FGEN IN THE H8-7 LAYER IS ALSO POINTING TO MORE INTENSE BANDING OF SNOW ON THE W SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE 150 MILES E OF CAPE FEAR BY END OF PERIOD... DRAWING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES N AND UP THE COAST. MODEL PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE CRITICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH THE COLUMN COOLING SHARPLY... LASTLY AT THE COAST. Well if that happens I would think it is safe to say it would be an amazing dump even here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RAH is going 3-6 for Southern Pines. Could the fail zone come to an end? Eyewall, don't you think the 850 low is going to be a bit far north for comfort -- for Southern Pines, and for me, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What are your thoughts regarding temp issues? Looks like much of the area is below freezing (I'm at 31 and I know Dacula is) but will there be enough warm air at the start to warm us up above freezing like FFC is forecasting? Once the precip turns to all snow I think that will take care of the surface temps and it should pull down the colder air from above. I do think you will warm above freezing before start though. Clouds are pretty thin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to us and happy birthday to me lol. Woke up to a wow and 4-8" wow what change for the better. Guess it's time to check out what's been going on the last couple of hours while I tried to sleep. Apparently a lot Awesome Christmas / birthday present! Happy birthday to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was really hoping for the clouds to get here before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Eyewall, don't you think the 850 low is going to be a bit far north for comfort -- for Southern Pines, and for me, too? I haven't had a chance to look at its latest forecast positions just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bozart I don't know exactly where you are but if the 850 low takes the GFS track I would be fine here as it goes through SC. Really I don't think it is something to get too hung up on at this juncture. We are all nervous until the flakes fly for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Eyewall, don't you think the 850 low is going to be a bit far north for comfort -- for Southern Pines, and for me, too? Not speaking for Eyewall, but I think as long as its not completely west of you are fine. There is going to be strong forcing near this 850 low and attendant tight temperature packing. Places along the coast and east of I-95 could have issues if the 6z GFS is right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MERRY CHRISTMAS to all of the folks on the SE thread. I also want to thank you all for the hard work in putting the forcasts together and for the play by play threads You guys make me look good to my clients and for that I THANK YOU . God Bless you and your families on this Christmas Day Ray Grimes and Sons The INCLEMENT WEATHER CONTRACTOR Inc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Looks awesome to me! looks to be nearly perfect for most of us (i hope lookout and our posters in TN are included, but it might be close for their back yards ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone. Just caught up on the great disco. Gsp now calling for 8 Inches in Franklin wow. I have to hand it to Robert. What a great call! You said all this could happen. I don't know who you work for but they should give you a raise. You have called two great events here so far this year when even the models were showing very little. Sorry about your mom. I will be praying for her. ditto on all counts. he, and several others here, have been harping on this, trying to get the info out with out too much hype (which is impossible when the words 'snow' and 'chistmas' are in teh same sentene) and looks like their guts, experience and forecasts BEAT OUT THE MODELS! we have the best pro mets and pro forecasters and posters!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 10z HRRR total accumulation through 01z (8pm EST). Everyone in E TN and W NC looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hmm, so I guess by looking at that map Atlanta will see it's snow after 8pm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bozart I don't know exactly where you are but if the 850 low takes the GFS track I would be fine here as it goes through SC. I'm in Fountain -- western-most Pitt Co., about 15 miles east of I-95. What I was looking at was the 850 depiction on the 06Z for hr. 30 (12Z tomorrow, near the height of the storm for eastern NC): http://www.nco.ncep....fs_850_030l.gif That looks like it's centered over Kinston. I'd much rather see it down in SC. Really I don't think it is something to get too hung up on at this juncture. We are all nervous until the flakes fly for sure. I agree. Just sort of thinking out-loud. Doh! Weather Radio alarm going off! Winter Storm Warning announcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hmm, so I guess by looking at that map Atlanta will see it's snow after 8pm ? The HRRR has you changing over sometime around 23z-00z (6-7pm), so basically. On the final frame at 8pm you're seeing some pretty decent rates, with at least a couple more hours to go. Full set of graphics here: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t6&run_time=25+Dec+2010+-+10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The HRRR has you changing over sometime around 23z-00z (6-7pm), so basically. On the final frame at 8pm you're seeing some pretty decent rates, with at least a couple more hours to go. Full set of graphics here: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t6&run_time=25+Dec+2010+-+10Z Hmm, ok. NWS says rain/snow changing to all snow by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not speaking for Eyewall, but I think as long as its not completely west of you are fine. There is going to be strong forcing near this 850 low and attendant tight temperature packing. Places along the coast and east of I-95 could have issues if the 6z GFS is right . Yea if the 6z gfs is correct the west trend can stop. If this takes a negative tilt to early is it possible this could be slightly inland causing mixing issues in the RDU area? What are your thoughts? Or is this just my inner weenie coming out? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 New thread is up, folks: http://www.americanw...tmas-storm-vii/ I would like to hear an answer to rduwx's question though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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