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Christmas Storm VI


Cold Rain

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Here we go, I went from nothing to a warning :)

gsp.png

Now they're calling for 4-6 here. Great!

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST

GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO

THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES

THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INTERACT

WITH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS

SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN

ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER

MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

NCZ035-501-502-252100-

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0017.101225T0937Z-101226T1700Z/

ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LENOIR

437 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL

NOON EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA

FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND INCREASING

SNOWFALL INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING...ROADS WILL RAPIDLY

BECOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED AND TRAVEL WILL DANGEROUS. HEAVY

SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TO

UPPER 20S.

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QC you have alot of faith in SREF or is RUC best short term model? How about Hires as well. Just curious what to kind of watch today. Usually at this point I take the Radar/Sat only and just gauge how things unfold.

Thanks, Im up cooking and waiting on Mrs Clauss and the kids to come rolling out in a short while. I'll probably be dead/asleep tonight and miss the storm Ive tracked since Sunday. What a Journey.

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Western 1/3 by Tennesee border? Thanks for the update. Looks like we are in for an awesome winter storm, ON CHRISTMAS DAY. We all have waited our entire life for this and have sweated out close to 10 years from WWB to American waiting on snow for Christmas...much less a BONAFIDE winter storm. Hoping this pans out and of course bust on the GOOD SIDE (more). :weight_lift:

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Best quote of the night!

Hey! Look! The 0z Euro is cranking up a surface low over the Florida panhandle! Hmmm, it's almost like I've seen that map before! Hmmmm. :arrowhead:

So under a warning as shown above. GSP is calling for 4-6 and by reading the comments (as I went to sleep at 12) still looks like the storm may over preform here in WNC.

Time to get caught up on the map before the fam gets here at 7.

Great disco btw last night!!

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Jeremy,

There is talk of Thunder Sn. Also, do you think 4-6" sound about right? Or are you thinking more or less? They are saying we are to start as rn/sn mix. Radar looks impressive right now...

Thanks for any input...

If you are located Anywhere in WNC from Hickory eastward... you are sitting pretty... this is going to be a long duration moderate snowfall event for the mountains. I'm not sure about Thunder Snow, but it perhaps when everything is swinging through in the late afternoon.

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i just wonder if the models still have a clue. this s/w is still west of their projections.

Right now you are almost at a point that you don't want the trough to dig in further west. Right now the deformation band sets up right along the Appalachian Chain in NC. If the trough digs just a little more west, this band could go further north into VA and only skirt NC. Its becoming apparent that there will be a dry slot somewhere in the piedmont of NC, and the more west this trough cuts, the closer that dry slot finds its way to Hickory

Hmmm...I wonder if this can shift things west. If that's the case, ATL could potentially be in for more snow. Hopefully, it does not disrupt the phasing process however as that would be detrimental.

Again, its about where the band associated with the frontogenesis sets up. Right now, it looks like the band might be setting up right now across north Alabama. So if the trough were to dig further west, that might force that band further north and not affect Atlanta till later in the afternoon, when the band is already coming to an end not to far west. Atlanta is going to need some help from heavy precipitation rates, so you really want to be under this band for a longer duration.

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Brandon look at this motion WV. Looks like the phase is about to go boom in the next 6 or so hours, but possibly alot futher west. What do you think?

http://weather.unisy...&t=l3&region=us

definitely. the models are still catching up to this wave over the plains. to me, this means the gulf low will probably be stronger initially, than expected. instead of a quick atlantic transfer, i think we may be looking at a steadily strengthening low as it heads along the gulf coast and up the atl coast. i am now thinking a coastline track may be possible.

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New here guys, so with all of this shifting lately were does that leave us in central NC. Specifically the Henderson area on HWY 1 at the VA border? Things seem to be changing so rapidly, and I don't know what I'm looking at with some of these models.

Id say right now, you are sitting in ground zero. I know where your located and by Sunday afternoon you'll be buried in a foot + of snow, espeacilly once our storm starts coming up the GA/Carolina coast tonight. Seriously your sitting in as good a spot as anyone in the SE the way things stand now. You'll get the most qpf w/0 any mixing issues your neighbors just to your east may expierence.

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Right now you are almost at a point that you don't want the trough to dig in further west. Right now the deformation band sets up right along the Appalachian Chain in NC. If the trough digs just a little more west, this band could go further north into VA and only skirt NC. Its becoming apparent that there will be a dry slot somewhere in the piedmont of NC, and the more west this trough cuts, the closer that dry slot finds its way to Hickory

Again, its about where the band associated with the frontogenesis sets up. Right now, it looks like the band might be setting up right now across north Alabama. So if the trough were to dig further west, that might force that band further north and not affect Atlanta till later in the afternoon, when the band is already coming to an end not to far west. Atlanta is going to need some help from heavy precipitation rates, so you really want to be under this band for a longer duration.

we'll see where it sets up, but i agree, the dry slot will be an issue for someone.

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definitely. the models are still catching up to this wave over the plains. to me, this means the gulf low will probably be stronger initially, than expected. instead of a quick atlantic transfer, i think we may be looking at a steadily strengthening low as it heads along the gulf coast and up the atl coast. i am now thinking a coastline track may be possible.

With that kind of track, does the CLT area usually fare pretty well? Or do we usually get slotted, b/c of transfer? Thanks Brandon!

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With that kind of track, does the CLT area usually fare pretty well? Or do we usually get slotted, b/c of transfer? Thanks Brandon!

I think clt is fine. only prob is there will be some sleet/rain mixing in for some locales today for a period. i just hope everyone keeps thier chin up b/c when it's all said and done, i think most everyone will be happy.

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I think clt is fine. only prob is there will be some sleet/rain mixing in for some locales today for a period. i just hope everyone keeps thier chin up b/c when it's all said and done, i think most everyone will be happy.

Well stated. I think I am suffering with that attm. Seeing the radar painting rain overhead kills me, b/c it is a wast. :thumbsup:

Thank you for the explanation. One last thing...what should I be looking for, in terms of radar for this event? Good or bad. Thanks in advance, as I know you are busy...

Jason

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Finally... Atlanta is finally coming around

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

448 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM

EST SUNDAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY AMPLE

MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL

GEORGIA.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057-251800-

/O.CON.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T1800Z/

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-

NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-

HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-

NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-

HENRY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...

ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...

LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...

DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY

448 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST

SUNDAY FOR NORTH GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTHWARD...WHICH NOW INCLUDES METRO ATLANTA

AND THE ATHENS AREA. THE ADVISORY IS NOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A

NEWNAN TO MADISON TO WASHINGTON LINE... DUE TO THE THREAT OF LIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS

OVERNIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY.

TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL USHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE STATE

TODAY...AND WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH

GEORGIA THIS MORNING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. THE

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING... THEN A

MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALL SNOW AGAIN IN THE

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE

EAST.

THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND

NORTHEAST GEORGIA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROME TO

GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLY FROM THIS

MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE

IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

FOR METRO ATLANTA AND ATHENS...AND THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS... SOME

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY... THEN POSSIBLY 1 TO 2

INCHES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

REMEMBER...ICY ROADS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT LATER THIS EVENING

THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM ABOVE

FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

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GSP states "all hands on deck"~~

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

519 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST ALONG

THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES TO THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST EARLY MONDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY

SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD

ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS

INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER

THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND

QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND

INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER

SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18

UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND

ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER

THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH

A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN

SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH

TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY

NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF

SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE

CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN

THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS

LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND

DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY.

THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS

ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE

PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER

AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN

ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE

DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND

GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE

FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD

OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4

INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A

WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF

THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW

IS VERY POSSIBLE.

THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG UP TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS. IT WILL TAKE

SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LEVELS TO COOL TODAY AND FOR ALL SNOW TO

FALL ACROSS THESE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SECONDARY AREA OF FORCING

WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE IS LIKELY TO REINVIGORATE THE PCPN THIS

EVENING...RESULTING IN A RAPID TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW WHERE THERE

WAS A MIX BEFORE. STILL...I THINK THE URBAN CORRIDOR WILL CHANGE

OVER IN THE 19 TO 20 UTC TIME FRAME...WHICH IS PLENTY OF TIME TO

WATCH THE SNOW FALL AND EXPERIENCE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE

PIEDMONT.

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Well stated. I think I am suffering with that attm. Seeing the radar painting rain overhead kills me, b/c it is a wast. :thumbsup:

Thank you for the explanation. One last thing...what should I be looking for, in terms of radar for this event? Good or bad. Thanks in advance, as I know you are busy...

Jason

lol not busy, just up at 530 watching this like the weenie i am.

here's a link to allan's ruc radar loop

this is through 1pm

http://raleighwx.ame...ityrucLoop.html

back to bed for a while.

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Coming in quickly now AFD from Huntsville

FXUS64 KHUN 251019AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

419 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...

AN ALREADY-MESSY FORECAST HAS GOTTEN EVEN MORE COMPLEX...BUT THE

REVISED FORECAST IS GOOD NEWS FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS FANS. A BAND OF

MDT-OCCASIONALLY HVY PRECIP HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE NWRN HALF

OF THE HUN CWFA...AND WITH IT COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE

TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND THUS PRECIP TYPES. REPORTS INDICATE A FAIRLY

QUICK TRANSITION FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/WARM CONDITIONS...TO A SLEET/

SNOW/RAIN MIX...TO SNOW /AS REPORTED IN NRN MS/.

00Z/06Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMPLICATING THE MATTER FURTHER. THERE IS

SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON A CHANNEL OF ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO

MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. NEARLY EVERY MODEL--

INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS---HAS DEPICTED A BAND OF 0.25+ INCH QPF

ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING

AND LOCATIONS VARY.

BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS AND THIS CONSENSUS...HAVE ELECTED TO

EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA. MORE OF

THE AREA...PARTICULARLY S AND E OF HSV...LOOKS TO BE AT RISK FOR

1-INCH SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST UNCERTAIN IN NW AL AND THE

CURRENT FCST SNOW GRIDS DO NOT REACH LOCAL CRITERIA...BUT REPORTS OF

ROAD PROBLEMS WARRANT INCLUDING THEM AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT

SOME AREAS UNDERNEATH THE BAND WILL GET MORE THAN 2 INCHES...WHICH

IS LOCAL WARNING CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ATTM...

BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

PCPN MAY EASE SOMEWHAT HEADING PAST 18Z AS THE BAND SHIFTS S AND THE

FOCUS SHIFTS TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. HAVE

INCREASED POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS GIVEN STOUT LAPSE RATES AND STRONG

FORCING. ANOTHER QUARTER TO PERHAPS HALF INCH IS EXPECTED MAINLY N

AND E OF HSV /ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS/ AFTER 00Z

TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPS WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RISE VERY MUCH

TODAY...AND SUSPECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AS

WELL. UNLIKE THE LAST EVENT...CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...SO IT WILL BE

TOUGH TO MELT OR SUBLIMATE ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW...SO TRAVEL ON

SUNDAY LOOKS PROBLEMATIC IF NOT HAZARDOUS. CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY

BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...AND

TEMPS WILL NOT GET FAR ABOVE FREEZING THEN EITHER.

DID NOT HAVE TIME TO GET INTO THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE FAST-CHANGING

SHORT TERM. FCST BEYOND MONDAY WAS LEFT AS-IS FROM FRIDAY DAY SHIFT.

THANKS TO MEG...JAN...BMX...AND HPC FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING!

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL.

&&

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Merry Christmas everyone. Just caught up on the great disco. Gsp now calling for 8 Inches in Franklin wow. I have to hand it to Robert. What a great call! You said all this could happen. I don't know who you work for but they should give you a raise. You have called two great events here so far this year when even the models were showing very little. Sorry about your mom. I will be praying for her.

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QC you have alot of faith in SREF or is RUC best short term model? How about Hires as well. Just curious what to kind of watch today. Usually at this point I take the Radar/Sat only and just gauge how things unfold.

Thanks, Im up cooking and waiting on Mrs Clauss and the kids to come rolling out in a short while. I'll probably be dead/asleep tonight and miss the storm Ive tracked since Sunday. What a Journey.

Just got up to start cooking after sleeping two hours, looks like I will be out plowing for a couple of days. This storm is going to be amazing. Curious to see how heavy it gets during the night. I remember one storm back about 10 years ago where it was about 3 inches an hour. We ended up with 11 inches. Hard to stop on top of anything like that

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All four of my GRLevel3 radars are pointing to the southeast right now, FFC, BMX, GSP, MXX. Looking at the reports from the radar, MS and northern AL, snow is being reported.

I think the best Google radar for this right now is this one http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_southeast_master.php

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I've had your radar up since yesterday afternoon :arrowhead:

Great job!

All four of my GRLevel3 radars are pointing to the southeast right now, FFC, BMX, GSP, MXX. Looking at the reports from the radar, MS and northern AL, snow is being reported.

I think the best Google radar for this right now is this one http://www.daculawea...east_master.php

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