Snow haven Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Off the 00NAM do you have that further to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My best eyeball estimate of the RGEM maps gives MBY and much of N.C. around 16 mm of precip -- .63 inches! That GSP midnight crew better not start off the shift with a coffee break -- time to get some WSW hoisted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 another sig change with the new intialization of the 4z RUC.. western ridge is quite a bit taller than at 3z valid same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Off the 00NAM Interesting how there is just one little batch of green in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok folks, my late evening update, better late than never eh. My first forecast map is posted http://www.examiner....f-the-southeast Well, you can scratch the Canadian off the list of foreign models that isn't on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Use the GFS or NAM snowfall maps do you have that further to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 another sig change with the new intialization of the 4z RUC.. western ridge is quite a bit taller than at 3z valid same time. For the uneducated is that good, bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's one trend on the RUC that I don't like and that's that it shows the northern stream s/w weaker with each run. It's still there and still further west, but the vorticity is less. Is that just because it's diving instead of rotating eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That would be good. For the uneducated is that good, bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z GEFS mean doesn't seem to have the relative QPF minimum over NC that some have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z GGEM is coming in with the rest of the pack. Basically looks completely different from 12z and 00z last night. So much for the initialization errors, HPC! Looking a thousand times better. 1010mb low over the coast of the Florida panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm thinking 5-9" or so for us or so. TV mets all gave us 1-2", though, LOL. Ratios could be close to 20:1 by the end of the storm. Yea the ratios are gonna be excellent for us. The GFS just gave u,me and out toward Pilot .6+. If the gfs has this strength,track and pressures depicted 100% accurate on the 0z, we should and will receive more qpf than .60. It would be between .75 and 1.0. The Ratios are the sure thing and now its just a matter of the qpf. I really beleive and being objective, not wishcasting that our qpf will end up between .75-1.00 in the Triad region. The speed and how long we stay under the storm is the biggest factor that will dictate whether we hang close to.75 or hit 1.00. Gonna be a fun ride tommorow night into Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A reminder to get your boards out and level. If you come up with a total you have to be able to prove it on a board. Drifts don't count. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MEX mos gives me a 4 in the snow category...meaning it expects a 4 to 6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interesting hpc diagnostic discussion. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES NOT SEPARATE IT FROM THE FLOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND IT FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OR OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION...SO WILL FAVOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MEX mos gives me a 4 in the snow category...meaning it expects a 4 to 6" snowfall. Things keep getting better and better for us. Now if it can take the perfect track and really bury us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New accums: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok folks, my late evening update, better late than never eh. My first forecast map is posted http://www.examiner....f-the-southeast Very nice read and thanks Allan for taking the time to give that update. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Given the trend tonight in the mesoscale models along with the 0z GFS... the folks at the GSP forecast office are going to have to consider upgrading the I-40 cooridor from Advisory to warning status come the morning forecast package. Just looked at the MeteoStar numerical guidance (KMRN), .50 liquid on the 0z GFS run with 850 temps going from -4 at the onset to -9 when it ends. Per the model run it looks like we may get a good 12 hour event before things taper off after 6z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jeremy, I think that's the same map you posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay, I'm tired of models giving juicy precip over SC and then again over VA, northward. What gives? Don't be so dam greedy, we are well below our snow average for the last 5 years! Especially the upstate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where in the H are some Atlanta peeps,,,,:gun_bandana::gun_bandana: Dawson and Cheeze have addressed us ATL weenies. Safe bet for North and East GA is 1-3" maybe more by the time it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jeremy, I think that's the same map you posted earlier. I overwrote the graphic that was there with the same file name. Sorry about that. That is why it appears more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry johnwow, accidentally deleted your post. I'm mobile so I don't wake the gf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dawson and Cheeze have addressed us ATL weenies. Safe bet for North and East GA is 1-3" maybe more by the time it is over. That is not addressing Atlanta entirely..............Thanks....:snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Zoomed in view of the 00z GFS ENS precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I find it hilarious that the local TV mets are saying nothing for ATH and barley nothing for ATL....I see 2 easily and that may be and underestimate. Dawson and Cheeze have addressed us ATL weenies. Safe bet for North and East GA is 1-3" maybe more by the time it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Don't be so dam greedy, we are well below our snow average for the last 5 years! Especially the upstate!! You can keep your precip. I just want it to come here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Zoomed in view of the 00z GFS ENS precip Wow!!!!! It'll be interesting to see if the op is the driest member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Zoomed in view of the 00z GFS ENS precip Still lighter than 18z. What's up with that? Why am I freaking out? Should I freak out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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