NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 welcome View euronamgfs! Absolutely. I've seen several snows here where I get something and then just go down 300ft and it's almost nothing. Elevation is KING! he is totally right - i am about 1750' or so, and there are times it will snow or ice here, but down in town its just rain. the march storm last year i had 8" and it decreased rapidly just a few hundred feet down in elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Eric Thomas has upped the totals for the whole Charlotte TV market. He now has mountains and foothills 1-3. Then in a NE/SW oriented that stretches from GSP to Shelby to Hickory and on northeast, he now has 2-4. That does include Charlotte Metro and along I-85 and I-77. Then from Wadesboro and Albemarle and eastward, 3-5 inches. He upped it to those totals at the 7 pm edition. Thus no change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks Dan. I assume he is going light in out neck. Did he mention models or anything. I still think this has "over performance" written all over it. ! No, he really never made any reference to models. He just stated that the totals would be increased. His in-house model did show our best snow between noon tomorrow and about 10 pm when he expects a dry slot to come in. Eric is a busy man tonight with all these model changes and the santa tracker...I love it. BTW, I love that 0z GFS and the QPF map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where the heck is this from?? Can't be from anything we have been seeing the past 12 hours of models EDIT: image changed once I reposted, looks much better Latest 0z GFS cumulative precip for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I didn't call for much snow down here in Columbus. I said potential for FLURRIES, but up to ATL they will see accumulating snow. I said this because I know a lot of people drive up that way... Maybe I should go work up there I am still not 100% convinced of accumulating snow down here though... It will depend on the exact track of this system. I know it will start out as rain, and pretty sure we will see flurries... but accumulation? I'm not sure... Considering this is my first time actually forecast SNOW! It's been an interesting ride, and cannot wait to see what happens and see what I can do next time to be better Well I was talking about Atlanta so I have no idea about Columbus! To bad we don't have any tv mets from the Atlanta metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just got in and it looks from what I can see and reading post from earlier that the NW Foothill and NW Piedmont are left watching this one. Forecast for my area from Blacksburg is pretty much a trace to an inch of snow! Looks like we might see a redux of 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW getting further WEST yeah but by about 5-10 miles from the prev run. love watching the smallest of changes with the models now. LOL. The trough is a tad sharper, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I was talking about Atlanta so I have no idea about Columbus! To bad we don't have any tv mets from the Atlanta metro... BE glad none of the ATL tv mets are on here. The information you get on this board will blow them away for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based off nam and espeacilly GFS 4-8 a good bet for Triad. Eastern Triad will get the most. With .65 being depicted currently on gfs and higher ratios due to colder air things are looking great. As others stated earlier The trend and position of our storm will most likely yield even higher qpf than is being depicted. It's possible this storm goes to the limit and pushes some 10-12 inch accums somewheer between extreme eastern Triad and northern coastal plain out toward Roanoke Rapids, Murfeesboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
euronamgfs suc1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 welcome View euronamgfs! he is totally right - i am about 1750' or so, and there are times it will snow or ice here, but down in town its just rain. the march storm last year i had 8" and it decreased rapidly just a few hundred feet down in elevation Yeah that event in March elevation was huge in regards to amount of snow. Thanks for the info guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based off nam and espeacilly GFS 4-8 a good bet for Triad. Eastern Triad will get the most. With .65 being depicted currently on gfs and higher ratios due to colder air things are looking great. As others stated earlier The trend and position of our storm will most likely yield even higher qpf than is being depicted. It's possible this storm goes to the limit and pushes some 10-12 inch accums somewheer between extreme eastern Triad and northern coastal plain out toward Roanoke Rapids, Murfeesboro. I'm thinking 5-9" or so for us or so. TV mets all gave us 1-2", though, LOL. Ratios could be close to 20:1 by the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just got in and it looks from what I can see and reading post from earlier that the NW Foothill and NW Piedmont are left watching this one. Forecast for my area from Blacksburg is pretty much a trace to an inch of snow! Looks like we might see a redux of 2000? No I don't think so, I'd say 2-4 for ur area imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just got in and it looks from what I can see and reading post from earlier that the NW Foothill and NW Piedmont are left watching this one. Forecast for my area from Blacksburg is pretty much a trace to an inch of snow! Looks like we might see a redux of 2000? probably won't change it until GSP updates totals overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Found in HickoryWX thread Posted here as it is hard to jump thread right now! Hickory WX states "The upper levels look great to me for most of nc. The question remains how does this keep trending? Anytime you see the 500mb low cutoff over the midwest like it does on the nam at 36, with the vorticity advection going up the coastal plain, you can usually sit the coastal low on the coastline or just offshore. GFS should be very interesting". Stormsfury states "best baroclinicity should be just a bit offshore given very cool SST's at shore. One of the things I saw with the GFS/NAM at 00z is there's quite a comma head developing at 700mb of deeper RH's, and deep 850mb moisture as well in the 36-48 hour range. I wonder if two things are being subtlely missed on the wraparound. it is overplaying downslope with this setup and thusly underplaying dynamics here on a mesoscale sense." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just got in and it looks from what I can see and reading post from earlier that the NW Foothill and NW Piedmont are left watching this one. Forecast for my area from Blacksburg is pretty much a trace to an inch of snow! Looks like we might see a redux of 2000? Yea, But I think they are out to lunch this time. All the latest runs gives us pretty good qpf GFS right at 1/2 inch qpf. I think that would be more than a dusting- inch ? But it may be wrong and NWS right ? We'll see before to long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The Atlanta TV mets in the 5th largest market are a disaster.............Please, And Kirk hellish has been gone for weeks on one of his ten vacations for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well i am about 20 miles east of Charlotte and according to GSP I am lucky to get an inch I guess its a storm cancel for south central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hope your mom is ok Robert. Have a Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New RUC shows very heavy precip. in Northern Alabama...I would guess it's snow. Click here to see. This occurs at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well i am about 20 miles east of Charlotte and according to GSP I am lucky to get an inch I guess its a storm cancel for south central NC. Did you read this thread at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well i am about 20 miles east of Charlotte and according to GSP I am lucky to get an inch I guess its a storm cancel for south central NC. The NWS has to play catch up. It's only been a few runs of a bigger storm. I'm sure by the morning you'll see WSWs hoisted across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did you read this thread at all? Just be sarcastic I think its funny GSP has not updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New RUC shows very heavy precip. in Northern Alabama...I would guess it's snow. Click here to see. This occurs at 15z. Yeah, the 03z RUC looks very encouraging up this way. On the NCEP site that goes out to H+18, it looks like we continue to see precipitation through at least 20-21z, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a swath of 4"+ somewhere *if* it verified. Where are you at? (EDIT: Just realized locations have been turned off, doh. I'm in Madison, W side of HSV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New RUC shows very heavy precip. in Northern Alabama...I would guess it's snow. Click here to see. This occurs at 15z. 03 ruc radar looks very good wow that would move into n ga sc and nc and that looks to be pretty heavy precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The thread is not going that quick folks. CLT is in the game. GSP will not do a damn thing until the new shift gets in and reviews the 00 data. Did you read this thread at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z GGEM is coming in with the rest of the pack. Basically looks completely different from 12z and 00z last night. So much for the initialization errors, HPC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 To say I'm excited would be an understatement! My lord what a RIDE this has been tracking this baby since like Sunday! Im not all that interested in the euro tonight as it really isnt at its best in the short range. Hopefully they hoist some WSW for my area. Local mets mentioned the west trend at 11pm newscasts and upped totals and said they would have to be upped even more if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay, I'm tired of models giving juicy precip over SC and then again over VA, northward. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Off the 00NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok folks, my late evening update, better late than never eh. My first forecast map is posted http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/significant-snowstorm-on-tap-for-the-triangle-and-good-portion-of-the-southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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