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Christmas Storm VI

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Thanks Phil, Allen and Robert (MYprayers w/your Mom). Phil I'm very interested in your catch of the long duration. Already 20 DBZ on radar over this way. This iis really gonna catch alot of people way off guard. The milk-n-bread stores are closed tommorrow so dont eat/throw away all that ham and turkey in one day folks. Im realy thinking alot of NC has a good shot at 1 foot the way things are shaping up right now. I'll be interested in exact ratios tommorrow, then the wind factor as well on the backside of our storm.

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tgarren

tgarren

Posted
Posted

figured. don't know why NCEP's sref maps suck so much

Per BUFKIT 21Z SREF throws the following precip down.

KCLT - 0.429

KGSO - 0.504

KRDU - 1.016

I don't much about the program it shows some of that falling as rain but it's thickness chart seems to not agree and says its all snow.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

figured. don't know why NCEP's sref maps suck so much

HPC uses SREF maps for there Winter Weather Impact graphics, they update quickly, much more useful and are a great resource.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

p.s. Robert, you and your mother are in our thoughts and prayers tonight, we hope she gets well soon!

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Dawgg10

Dawgg10

Posted
Posted

000

FXUS62 KFFC 250543 AAC

AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1240 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE

A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE IN...AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING A

LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT JUST

A TAD. THIS MAY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...IF IT GETS

COOLER TONIGHT BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN THEN IT MAY NOT GET QUITE

AS WARM AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TOMORROW. ALSO...STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST MODELS AS 18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN A

LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z RUNS BEFORE

MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX/SNOW GRIDS...SO FOR NOW WILL

PASS CONCERNS ONTO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. WILL REISSUE THE ADVISORY

AND SPS AS THEY ARE WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)

By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.

Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 10"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.

Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

Sorry to hear about your mom... my thoughts are with your family and hope whatever it was a speedy recovery is in the works smile.gif

With that said... excellent discussion! What a turn around this has been!

I'm thinking you're going to have to shift everything southwest, NeGa and Nw SC should get in on the heavy banding early and often if everything holds to form.

Still a good map and appreciate your disco Phil!

Thanks for the kind words... I agree that amounts may need to be scaled up big time. I made my original map at 8pm, and then made another one as the new gfs came in. However, looking at the trends from RUC, things might need to be modified for the western part of the map. The reason being is that the RUC looks to now set up the snow band over NW GA, E TN, and WNC and have it training for a good 2-3 hours before the rest of the Southeast gets in on the action. There is where WNC might win big!

Thanks Phil, Allen and Robert (MYprayers w/your Mom). Phil I'm very interested in your catch of the long duration. Already 20 DBZ on radar over this way. This iis really gonna catch alot of people way off guard. The milk-n-bread stores are closed tommorrow so dont eat/throw away all that ham and turkey in one day folks. Im realy thinking alot of NC has a good shot at 1 foot the way things are shaping up right now. I'll be interested in exact ratios tommorrow, then the wind factor as well on the backside of our storm.

I'm thinking WNC might stand the best chance to get close to the amounts that will be further east when the low bombs out. There will be some very good snow liquid ratios since 850mb temps are significantly cooler here. Basically if you can get upwards of .6-.7 in precip totals, I think its possible some locations could be pushing 10" even before the upslope begins!

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

Wow folks, this amazing comeback in the models is flat out stunning. One thing I have learned from all of this is that the Euro is still king from Day's 3-7. Then as you get inside day 3, the American models (NAM, GFS) tend to come in line.Then once you get within 24 hours the RUC is solid.

Guys, I gotta get some sleep because tomorrow looks to be a very active day. My mom, dad and sis plan on eating around 5pm, that may be adjusted now.

Just a suggestion...since a Christmas obs thead was created earlier today, I would think everyone should gradually make their way over to that thread by the time the EURO run is compete. Then we can use that thread for obs and the latest RUC data as we will be heading into NOWCAST mode. We're just about to that magical 50-page plateau on this thread.

Merry Christmas everyone...and to everyone a good night.

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ncgolfguy

ncgolfguy

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the well wishes on mom you guys. On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)

By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.

Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 10"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.

Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

post-38-0-29210800-1293253656.jpg

So sorry to hear about your mom, we will definitely be praying for her.

Wow! awesome update. It is funny I had text Chad Conner my snow total for Cleveland Co. of 6 to 10 inches on the 22 and then never updated it, now we may actually get close to that! Thanks so much for all you do to make this season so fun!

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