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35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The storms to the southwest of Allentown look pretty good, so the threat isn't over yet. Hopefully they'll hold together and hit us in a couple hours.

They are heading eastbound.  They won’t even extend as far north as my location.

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Since 2014 when the SPC changed classification systems, the general public and in some cases, municipalities and public authorities have failed to understand that enhanced is an extension of "slight risk". 

I still have this conversation with others that interpret "enhanced" as more potent than "moderate".... IJS....

Keep things simple for the simpleton. 

SPC_class_outlooks.png

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13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Delightful evening out here. 1 min rain shower earlier 

I had two 1 min rain showers. I win. :lol:

Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too. 

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Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +20.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today.

On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

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this anvil precip screwed us. some models had it but others didn't. there's no way to know which camp will be correct ahead of time

image.thumb.png.5d79572f3fa5eb783b0ba4ea8351657a.png

00z 3k forecast that had more heating:

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_24.png

 

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15 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol @ the intensity just offshore east of LI. I hate it here.

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

Somebody might have addressed this in the past, but why do storms often seem to refire once they push offshore?

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6 hours ago, Shades said:

Since 2014 when the SPC changed classification systems, the general public and in some cases, municipalities and public authorities have failed to understand that enhanced is an extension of "slight risk". 

I still have this conversation with others that interpret "enhanced" as more potent than "moderate".... IJS....

Keep things simple for the simpleton. 

SPC_class_outlooks.png

This whole scale needs to be changed.  Ditch "enhanced"  What are the percentages on this?

Marginal should be 10%, Slight should be 20%, Moderate should be 30% and High should be 50%

If you really want to keep "Enhanced" move it ahead of Moderate and make it 40%, then you have a nice 10% increment scale from 10-50 percent.

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

Not a fan of severe weather at all, I'd rather have dry and hot between snow season and tropical season.

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +20.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today.

On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

Looks like cooler and drier weather coming back after the hot weather spike?

 

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