Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,125
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    laikakat
    Newest Member
    laikakat
    Joined

April 2022


 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, bluewave said:

Record -PNA trough out West is taking a bunch of trees down in Portland with the historic late season snowfall.

 

 

1948/9-1951, great analog for -PNA evolution right now (ENSO-PNA). Yesterday's 12z GFS had 5-7 straight days of snowfall in Seattle, I checked the forecast though and it was Upper40s/low50s, rain throughout. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Noticeably warmer air began moving into the region. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature reached 61° at New York City's Central Park, 62° at Newark, and 61° at Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, Portland, OR saw its latest measurable snowfall on record. At least 1.0" of snow accumulated today. Prior to today, the latest measurable snowfall on record occurred on March 25, 1965 when 0.3" was recorded. The latest 1" or above snowfall occurred on March 8, 1951 when a storm dumped 7.6" of snow. Records go back to 1940.

It will be much warmer tomorrow with widespread readings in the 70s. Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts.

The Northern Plains will witness the development of a major spring blizzard tonight and tomorrow. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with drifts in excess of 4 feet.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +23.00 today. Today was the 7th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 13-19, 2021 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 7 consecutive days. The last time that happened in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.642 today.

On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.499 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.366 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.1° above normal).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This could be the warmest week of the month if the EPS is correct about the blocking returning for late April. 
 

EPS 

Apr 11-18

31DB1EA7-9905-477B-AEB3-4E7938778AD2.thumb.png.c234bb4f8ef65bcb04afa9b56b4bea26.png
 

Apr 18-25

4319AC3D-6BC8-4C7D-A1C9-1FE11CE9D304.thumb.png.912a634356cd485d6faee0fc223154c6.png

 

Apr 25 -May 2

1BE86D3D-E2A8-4220-A68F-61DB88672C03.thumb.png.7325bccc1ea58b958f4100756586ba74.png

 

 

From what that looks like, the blocking seems to only be there for next week. So  that 4/25-5/2 period looks nowhere near as cold as the 4/18-4/24.

I’ve been looking at the GFS and they’ve been very consistent with hinting the warmth could come back for the last week of the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Beyond week 2 is always lower skill. But the EPS has a -AO +PNA pattern. So the high temperatures for this week may be the warmest of the month.

EPS

Apr 18-25

1552F34C-84D7-4F15-9EF1-4DCE4E7E5117.jpeg.6150593385cb40d1e6a562de15c8cccc.jpeg

 

Apr 25-May 2


8828F332-0A34-4815-B980-13EBE2CA2705.jpeg.df9383a0edd68410adcf26281ca64aae.jpeg

 

 

 

What is causing this pattern exactly?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks about the same as the typical rain/snow line

 

It is the overnight lows.

The cold overnight temps keep the the plants dormant longer than the city itself. The urban heat island is particularly effected by the moist air.

I imagine that NYC will increasingly see longer growing seasons and increased sub-tropical plantings

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well right now there are no indicators that next week’s cold will last into the final week of the month.

I’ll be willing to bet on it.

If it does not hit 70 degrees at KCDW even once on any of the next three Mondays or Thursdays, starting with 4/18 and ending on 5/5, I will not post here again until after Labor Day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are arguing a point that nobody made. The warm parts of the area will reach 80° or warmer this week. So if the blocking continues into late April, then we’ll have to wait until May to see 80° again. 

Sorry. I was using 70 as my threshold, not 80.

My point still stands that there is nothing suggesting the cool pattern for next week will stick around for any more than just next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The maps that I posted showed the cooler departures moderating after next week. The means are rapidly rising during this time of year. So average high in NYC is in the upper 60s by the end of April.  

Sorry I must have misinterpreted you as saying this is the only warmth we’re getting at all for the month, rather than just “the warmest”. To be fair, what’s 20 degrees above normal now may be only 10 degrees above by the end of April.

Even if we don’t get another 80 I could see us easily getting some mid-70’s by the end of April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Big ND snow upcoming. Some places there likely 24". Bismarck has a tough forecast, riding the rain/snow/dryslot line. We'd be on pins and needles if we lived there. Delayed but not denied for ND, looks like mostly below average for snow this season. Bismarck has about as much as ISP this winter but they average 45" or so.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Sorry I must have misinterpreted you as saying this is the only warmth we’re getting at all for the month, rather than just “the warmest”. To be fair, what’s 20 degrees above normal now may be only 10 degrees above by the end of April.

Even if we don’t get another 80 I could see us easily getting some mid-70’s by the end of April.

Beyond the general idea that this week will be warmer than next week, week 3 is always very uncertain. So I will delete the maps beyond day 15. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Beyond the general idea that this week will be warmer than next week, week 3 is always very uncertain. So I will delete the maps beyond day 15. 

At what point did this week’s warmth first show up on the forecasts? And when did the cooldown first show up as well?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy during the morning and partly sunny and unseasonably warm during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 74°

Much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.9

In the Northern Plains, a blizzard will develop in North Dakota.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(48/65) or +4.

Reached only to 53 briefly here yesterday as wind stayed from  south.

Today: 66-71, cloudy then quickly clearing, wind w. to n., 54 by tomorrow AM.

Thursday still looks good for 80 somewhere nearby.     Starting Sunday, highs above 60 could become rare for sometime.

51*(68%RH) here at 7am{low for day should be 49 at 1am}.       53* at 10am.      56* at Noon and has cleared up in last hour.       63* at 2pm.      68* at 3pm.      Reached 75* during 5pm-6pm.       59* by 8pm.       60* at 11pm.

1649764800-iN9R2HGOSr4.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have a feeling that's what's driving the higher pollen counts and longer allergy season too.  I could barely breathe last night and I wasn't the only one.  It's these winds we've been seeing here, they are horrible.  My throat was constricted last night and I spoke to some of my neighbors this morning and they aren't handling it well either.

There would be so much money to be made if someone could make a chemical that would stop pollination, sort of like a plant contraceptive.  How many of these things do we need anyway? I don't get why these trees and what not have to be ejaculating every day, why not just do it one day and be done with it?  This is exactly why we need some form of plant castration.  We're swimming in this yucky stuff.

 

Good morning Liberty. Your third and forth sentences could be the lament of a, less than happy, partner in a multi decade marriage. Feel better, as always ….

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

 

There would be so much money to be made if someone could make a chemical that would stop pollination, sort of like a plant contraceptive.  How many of these things do we need anyway? I don't get why these trees and what not have to be ejaculating every day, why not just do it one day and be done with it?  This is exactly why we need some form of plant castration.  We're swimming in this yucky stuff.

 

Dude... Some thoughts are better when you keep them to yourself.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today should be our first 70°+ day of April as we get into a warm downslope flow.  We got off to the 2nd  highest number of 70° days by the start of spring. But have fallen pretty far back in the pack by April 11th.The recent leaders like 2012 and 2010 were already into double digits by today. So the same theme of an early start to spring getting interrupted by late season blocking. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 21
Missing Count
1 2012-03-21 6 0
2 2022-03-21 4 0
- 2020-03-21 4 0
- 1990-03-21 4 0
- 1946-03-21 4 0
- 1945-03-21 4 0



 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Apr 11
Missing Count
1 1945-04-11 15 0
2 2012-04-11 11 0
3 2010-04-11 10 0

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i was listening to craig allen this morning saying light sprinkles any  moderate to heavy rain showers was heading to the hudson valley boy was he wrong..

yep but quick clearing coming now and temps will skyrocket

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...