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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It started off good and mild. Has been meh recently. You guys got a 80 day at least.

First week was nice, but 9 of the past 12 days have had measurable rain, 6 with more than 3/10" and most days have featured siggy wind.  Despite the month temps running about +2.5, the mildest has been right at 60, only 4° milder than we reached in February.  mehhhhhh.

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Oh man... those GEF teleconnectors are just putrid for spring/warm enthusiasts.   I was hoping things might correct some but if anything they keep elevating to even more misery if anything.  

Then... I think back over the last 5 years ..and how at least 2 of them had snow flurries in May.  

So what's gonna happen with a -2 SD NAO that's retrograding toward the D straight region, while the PNA flips from negative to positive sign?

Even if this doesn't produce an interesting late snow ( the most likely result - ) there's nothing about the recent climate patterning/seasonality, combining the present state of the telecon outlook, that looks very promising.    mother f'er, how I hate this dumpster geography at this time of year. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh man... those GEF teleconnectors are just putrid for spring/warm enthusiasts.   I was hoping things might correct some but if anything they keep elevating to even more misery if anything.  

Then... I think back over the last 5 years ..and how at least 2 of them had snow flurries in May.  

So what's gonna happen with a -2 SD NAO that's retrograding toward the D straight region, while the PNA flips from negative to positive sign?

Even if this doesn't produce an interesting late snow ( the most likely result - ) there's nothing about the recent climate patterning/seasonality, combining the present state of the telecon outlook, that looks very promising.    mother f'er, how I hate this dumpster geography at this time of year. 

Take...anything to delay SA.

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Despite all the gloom and doom and hang wringing over fake modelology that will never happen over the next couple weeks.. it’s deep spring out there. Everything is blooming and growing . Leaf out beginning on some species and will accelerate with the warm sunny days thru Sunday. 

 

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hoping we can pull off a damp cold summer :thumbsup:

Unlikely ...

just like all other years where late blocking occurred, it'll likely break down circa mid May ... sending a heat wave across southern Canada.  What happens after has typically been ( for us...) above normal JJA, where the greater anomalies were in the nighttime lows.   That happens because the the cT air mass of summer is being charged more and more as a consequence of CC.  

It's actually happening all over the planet .. if interested.  Climate science is showing that the ballast of warming is indeed in the nocturals not falling as far... due to higher WV.   The other aspect is singular heat wave events that are > SD than seasonality.. .but as harsh and headlining as those are in big media, they don't add up nearly as much as the slow drip add-in of the night time lows being persistently above normal in just about every direction.

Long of the short, expect an early heat wave in late May to mid June, followed by 87/75 much of the way.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Despite all the gloom and doom and hang wringing over fake modelology that will never happen over the next couple weeks.. it’s deep spring out there. Everything is blooming and growing . Leaf out beginning on some species and will accelerate with the warm sunny days thru Sunday. 

 

4/20 or beer?

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Despite all the gloom and doom and hang wringing over fake modelology that will never happen over the next couple weeks.. it’s deep spring out there. Everything is blooming and growing . Leaf out beginning on some species and will accelerate with the warm sunny days thru Sunday.

 

Nasal Damage

 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

4/20 or beer?

Polishing turds. Pattern looks like trash for good warmth. Paying the piper a bit after the mild start to the month. Can’t complain about the month overall but I was hoping for some 70s/80s to close the month but it looks bleak. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Polishing turds. Pattern looks like trash for good warmth. Paying the piper a bit after the mild start to the month. Can’t complain about the month overall but I was hoping for some 70s/80s to close the month but it looks bleak. 

Yep. It’s not drizzle and 40,  but meh overall with some inclement weather. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh man... those GEF teleconnectors are just putrid for spring/warm enthusiasts.   I was hoping things might correct some but if anything they keep elevating to even more misery if anything.  

Then... I think back over the last 5 years ..and how at least 2 of them had snow flurries in May.  

So what's gonna happen with a -2 SD NAO that's retrograding toward the D straight region, while the PNA flips from negative to positive sign?

Even if this doesn't produce an interesting late snow ( the most likely result - ) there's nothing about the recent climate patterning/seasonality, combining the present state of the telecon outlook, that looks very promising.    mother f'er, how I hate this dumpster geography at this time of year. 

Ughhhhh summer and nice weather just take sooooo long to arrive here

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59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Despite all the gloom and doom and hang wringing over fake modelology that will never happen over the next couple weeks.. it’s deep spring out there. Everything is blooming and growing . Leaf out beginning on some species and will accelerate with the warm sunny days thru Sunday. 

 

We have none of that here lol. 

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58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t touch the weed . Never have never will. Get outside in this great wx instead of eating and posting indoors 

Temp in low 40s, gusts to low 30s, 70% cloud cover (and our downslope site usually clears out well) - not too a bad day, for mid March.

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