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April Pattern/obs thread.


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On 3/31/2022 at 5:43 AM, dendrite said:

Nice torch on the fantasy GFS.

No one's asking me but .. I don't think it's "as much" of a fantasy as is typically the case for this range - though I wouldn't pin adjective to it like 'torch' per se.  Heh.

But there is multiple signal sources for broadly systemic/hemispheric obliteration of that which we've been observing.  Namely, an R-wave re-positioning from Pacific arond to eastern N/A, and the retreat N of the westerlies, by mid month.   

In the meantime, dailies look to me like we continue to oscillate for the next ten days. The the models' ideas of the atmosphere attempt to fight off radiative/seasonal forcing with fake-out cold storms that just end up rhea like.  Back side bud belayer air masses that flip around to nape days ... with posting mood swinging accordingly.  ..ha, rinse repeat.  If we can get a few hours in the garden or a decent bike ride a couple of days, we'll call it a success... 

But that signal mid month is not only in all ens systems, it's also hugely suggestive in La Nina climo.  1976 ...2002 .. to name a couple, but there is a strong statistical correlation to end-season La Nina lag sending up early warmth across eastern N/A.  Those years perhaps being excessive, mere examples. I wouldn't bother with magnitude from this range as it pertains to this month.   But heh... in CC with Pac NW type events, to mention everywhere else in the world where attribution studies link CC to these synergistic heat events that have been materializing ( relative to native climates ) ... I wouldn't be inclined to hold back, either.  We'll see. 

In short, live ens means are directing toward a result that alights upon that La Lina climate signal, ...doing so during upwardly mobile ongoing CC rage?   We've spent 30 days (figuring out ways how to not snow) in a cold hemispheric look... Yet, still managing a couple of 70 degree lollypops... but relative to all, this anomaly is borrowing time.  Any venture of guess in what happens when the westerlies suddenly escape N and we balloon protective warm dome everywhere S?  



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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Amazing how one warm day in the 60’s today with dews and the grass gets even greener. 

It’s weird yeah. I mean the last three days were no side of green up weather conditions … although the suns bright. Yet the red maples up this way are budding. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s weird yeah. I mean the last three days were no side of green up weather conditions … although the suns bright. Yet the red maples up this way are budding. 

The warm Morch and all those sunny days really helped early green ups and budding . Should see a fast progression next few weeks 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Amazing to think this is what it looked like still 7 years ago lol.





I think the only other time I've experienced an established winter pack (so that rules out years like '97 where it was freshly falling) that looked like that on 4/1 here was 2001....some years like 2018, 2017, and 2013 (and maybe even 2005?) had snow cover still leftover but it wasn't full-on pack everywhere...it was typical sun torched areas bare with woods and shaded regions holding old pack.

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